Abstract
In our research, we focus on the reliability of the interconnected electricity supply system of three countries of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU)—Russia, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan. We apply a mathematical model to evaluate the reliability of the electricity supply system under the threat of earthquakes. Earthquakes can damage elements of electricity grids and, considering the interconnectivity of electricity supply systems in the EAEU, effects in the aftermath of earthquakes can be far-reaching and even transboundary. This necessitates the development of coordinated policies and risk management strategies to deal with electricity outage risks in the EAEU. In our study, the earthquake probability is derived from seismic zone maps, while damage events are computed using maps of energy power systems. In addition, we determine which elements of the system are susceptible to failure due to an earthquake of a given magnitude. We conduct a scenario analysis of earthquakes and their impacts on the reliability of the power supply system, considering potential energy losses and threats to energy security. An analysis of the resilience of electricity transmission grids allows us to determine the critical interconnection lines in terms of exposure to earthquake risk, as well as exposure to total systemic loss. We also identify the most critical interconnection lines where power outages can lead to the destabilization of the entire power supply system. Some examples of such lines are at the border of Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, where power outages can lead to serious economic costs and electricity outages.
Highlights
Regional integration processes, like the Eurasian Economic Integration, are significantly influencing national energy security, due to the growing interconnectivity of critical infrastructures such as electricity transmission lines
Our results show that the electricity supply through the lines on the Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan border has a high of being affected by an earthquake
Our results show that the energy security of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) region is affected by the existence of interconnections that are vulnerable to the threat of earthquakes, and where disruptions of the electricity supply will have high impacts on the reliability of electricity supply within the EAEU
Summary
Like the Eurasian Economic Integration, are significantly influencing national energy security, due to the growing interconnectivity of critical infrastructures such as electricity transmission lines. The liberalized trade of electricity within the EAEU, which is foreseen to result from the creation of a common electricity market, will change the load distribution on the elements of the grids and may, lead to unexpected system stresses. These may, in turn, result in power outages and cascading effects of these outages on the entire electricity supply system of the Union. The goal of the EAEU is to strengthen political, social, economic and environmental cooperation among its member states This cooperation includes the creation of common energy markets [1,16]. The electricity market is an essential part of the common energy market relying on existing electricity interconnections within EAEU countries and between them.
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