Abstract
We have investigated changes of western North Pacific land-falling tropical cyclone (TC) characteristics due to warmer climate conditions, using the pseudo-global-warming (PGW) technique. Historical simulations of three intense TCs making landfall in Pearl River Delta (PRD) were first conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The same cases were then re-simulated by superimposing near- (2015–2039) and far- (2075–2099) future temperature and humidity changes onto the background climate; these changes were derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model projections according to the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. Peak intensities of TCs (maximum surface wind in their lifetimes) are expected to increase by ~ (3) 10% in the (near) far future. Further experiments indicate that surface warming alone acts to intensify TCs by enhancing sea surface heat flux, while warmer atmosphere acts in the opposite way by increasing the stability. In the far future, associated storm surges are also estimated to increase by about 8.5%, computed by the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model. Combined with sea level rise and estimated land vertical displacement, TC-induced storm tide affecting PRD will increase by ~1 m in the future 2075–2099 period.
Highlights
Producing almost 30% of global tropical cyclones (TCs), the western North Pacific (WNP) is the most active TC basin on the Earth
We evaluate the impacts of future global warming on WNP TCs using PGW based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model[23] with a horizontal resolution of 5 km, and quantify the influences on storm surges with a numerical storm surge model, namely the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model[24]
We conclude that WRF is able to replicate the three historical TCs by providing well-simulated trajectories, minimum sea level pressure (SLP) evolutions
Summary
Producing almost 30% of global tropical cyclones (TCs), the western North Pacific (WNP) is the most active TC basin on the Earth. According to projections using general circulation models (GCMs), TCs may intensify globally[4,5,6,7] and sea level rise (SLR) may accelerate[8,9] under global warming Their combined effects will lead to increase of flood risks to the PRD area. In the PGW technique, differences of environmental thermal and dynamical forcings, such as sea surface temperature (SST), atmospheric temperature, humidity and wind field, between current and future climates simulated by GCMs are firstly obtained. These perturbations will be added to the initial and boundary conditions for the historical cases to generate future climate conditions[15]. The tracks, intensities and storm size information are applied to drive the SLOSH model, in order to evaluate changes of induced storm surges in the future
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