Abstract
We estimate streamflow in the Gui River Basin (GRB) in this work by calibrated SWAT model whose accuracy for depicting hydrological processes features at monthly scale is verified beforehand. Then we further make a prediction for streamflow in the GRB in the future based on data of climate change scenarios from HadCM3 under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The simulations reveal the growth trend of streamflow in the GRB under every RCP and the increasing frequency of the runoff over 20000m3/s between June and August in most RCPs relative to the baseline period. The results indicate that changes in streamflow are relatively slight in both RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, but fairly dramatic under RCP8.5 in the future.
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