Abstract
Lakes in the Hindu Kush-Himalaya-Tibetan (HKHT) regions are crucial indicators for the combined impacts of regional climate change and resultant glacier retreat. However, they lack long-term systematic monitoring and thus their responses to recent climatic change still remain only partially understood. This study investigated lake extent fluctuations in the HKHT regions over the past 40 years using Landsat (MSS/TM/ETM+/OLI) images obtained from the 1970s to 2014. Influenced by different regional atmospheric circulation systems, our results show that lake changing patterns are distinct from region to region, with the most intensive lake shrinking observed in northeastern HKHT (HKHT Interior, Tarim, Yellow, Yangtze), while the most extensive expansion was observed in the western and southwestern HKHT (Amu Darya, Ganges Indus and Brahmaputra), largely caused by the proliferation of small lakes in high-altitude regions during 1970s–1995. In the past 20 years, extensive lake expansions (~39.6% in area and ~119.1% in quantity) were observed in all HKHT regions. Climate change, especially precipitation change, is the major driving force to the changing dynamics of the lake fluctuations; however, effects from the glacier melting were also significant, which contributed approximately 31.9–40.5%, 16.5–39.3%, 12.8–29.0%, and 3.3–6.1% of runoff to lakes in the headwaters of the Tarim, Amu Darya, Indus, and Ganges, respectively. We consider that the findings in this paper could have both immediate and long-term implications for dealing with water-related hazards, controlling glacial lake outburst floods, and securing water resources in the HKHT regions, which contain the headwater sources for some of the largest rivers in Asia that sustain 1.3 billion people.
Highlights
The Earth’s climate is changing due to human emissions of greenhouse gases and is projected to continuously change throughout the 21st century, even at unprecedented rates in recent human history [1]
Influenced by different regional atmospheric circulation systems, our results show that lake changing patterns are distinct from region to region, with the most intensive lake shrinking observed in northeastern Hindu Kush-Himalaya-Tibetan (HKHT) (HKHT Interior, Tarim, Yellow, Yangtze), while the most extensive expansion was observed in the western and southwestern HKHT (Amu Darya, Ganges Indus and Brahmaputra), largely caused by the proliferation of small lakes in high-altitude regions during 1970s–1995
Our findings show that climate change and resultant glacier retreat has led to dramatic changes in number of lakes, lake surface area, and their vertical distribution in the HKHT regions, the patterns of these changes are distinct from region to region
Summary
The Earth’s climate is changing due to human emissions of greenhouse gases and is projected to continuously change throughout the 21st century, even at unprecedented rates in recent human history [1]. Impacts of climate change on high-elevation regions (e.g., the Himalayas, Rockies, Andes, and the Alps) are expected to be much more significant due to their higher sensitivity to temperature and precipitation changes [2]. Lakes in the high-elevation regions have been considered. 2 2ofof2322 oonneeooffththeemmoosstteeffiffcicieiennttiinnddiiccaattoorrss ooff tteerrrreessttrriiaall cclliimmaattee cchhaannggee [[33,,44]];; hhoowweevveerr,,iinnvveesstitgigaatitninggththeeirir reressppoonnsseessttootthheeccoommbbiinneeddiimmppaaccttss ooff bbootthh cclliimmaattee cchhaannggee aanndd rreessuullttaannttggllaacciieerrrreettrreeaattsstitlilllrreemmaaininss lalargrgeelylyuunnkknnoowwnn. GGeeooggrraapphhiiccaall sseettttiinnggss ooff tthhee AAmmuu DDaarryyaa,, TTaarriimm,, IInndduuss,, GGaannggeess,,BBrraahhmmaappuutrtara, ,SSaalwlweeenen, , MMeekkoonngg,,YYaannggttzzee,,YYeelllolowwrriivveerrss,,aannddHHiinndduu KKuusshh--HHiimmaallaayyaa--TTiibbeettaann ((HHKKHHTT))IInntteerrioiorr((aalslsookknnoowwnn aassTTibibeetatannPPlalatteeaauuIInntteerriioorr)). TThhee bblluuee,, oorraannggee,, aanndd bbllaacckk aarrrroowwss ddeeppiicctttthhaattcclliimmaatetecchhaannggeeininththee HHKKHHTTrergeigoinosnswawsarsevreeavleeadlebdy bthyretehrdeiestidnicsttipnacttteprantst:er(n1)s:A(m1)uADmaruyaD, aInrydau,s,Inndourtsh,enrnorpthaertrnofpGaarnt goefs, aGndanwgeess,tearnndpwaretstoefrnTapraimrt aosfsToacriaimtedaswsoitchiatthede iwmitphactht eofimthpeawcteosftetrhleiesw, e(s2t)eBrlrieash,m(2a)pBurtarham, Saaplwuterean, , aSnadlwsoeeunth, earnnd psaorutthoefrGn apnagret socfoGnatrnoglelesdcobnytrtohleleIdndbyianthseuImndmiaenr msuomnmsoeornm(IoSnMso)o, nan(dISM(3)), Manedko(n3)g, YManegktozneg, Y, eYlalonwgt,zaen,dYmellooswt p, aarntdofmthosetHpKarHt TofInthteeriHorKrHesTuIltnetderfiroormretshueltmedixfroofmISMtheanmdixEaosfteISrMn Aasniadn mEoanstseoronnA(EsiAanMm).onsoon (EAM)
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