Impact of substitutions on elite soccer team performance based on player evaluation system

Abstract

This research aims to explore the performance characteristics of substitutions and to evaluate the performance of substitutions based on the player evaluation system. Match statistics of 643 substitutions extracted from the Chinese Super League teams in the 2019-2020 season. The team ratings, ball possession, and expected threat of four periods (5 minutes per period before and after the substitution) of each substitution were calculated. The two-step cluster analysis was performed on the team ratings at different times and the Scheirer–Ray–Hare test was used for the two-factor design based on the cluster and the substitutions over four periods. The cluster analysis revealed 5 clusters with a BIC value was 1,360.50. The interactions of team ratings between the periods and the clusters in different groups were detected (H = 531.96, p < .001, = 0.47). The group comparisons suggested that the ratings of Cluster 3 showed a significant decline after substitutions which was caused by the small ball possession but has great aggressive in expected threat. The study shows how player evaluation systems can be used to measure the effectiveness of substitutions in soccer games and provides insight for further analysis of decision-making situations.