Abstract
Employing a theoretical framework based on the prehistoric American Southwest, the impact on survival probability of a small group from environmental stress and household configuration is evaluated using stochastic simulation techniques. Several models were developed based upon a schema which includes population demographics, food procurement strategies, and resource response to varying environmental conditions. We address (1) strategic exploitation of the total range of food resources (wild and cultigens), (2) amelioration of alternative buffering strategies, and (3) impact of household size and composition. These are examined within the context of the cumulative impact of recurrent multiyear stress. The postulated buffering strategies which demonstrated higher probability of success are in agreement with ethnographic descriptions. It is shown that under proper planning assumptions, the impact of ephemeral aberrations in precipitation and household composition should have a minimum influence upon abandonment of small sites.
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