Impact of risks and threats on the region’s food supply in the context of import substitution

Food security in a just energy transition is a growing debate about designing sustainable food secure networks worldwide. Energy transition, land-use change, and food security are crucial factors for food security and provision. The increased demand for food products and customer preferences regarding food safety provide various issues for the current agriculture food supply chain (AFSC). Along with rising sustainability concerns, strict government regulation, food security, and traceability concerns compel managers, business houses, and practitioners working in AFSC to adopt new tools, techniques, and methodologies to model current food supply chain problems. Thus, in turn, design the food logistics network for food security. Hence, this study investigates the core determinants of food security and supply in Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia, and Lebanon over the period of 2010–2019. In order to estimate the objectives of the study, we employ the fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS) and dynamic ordinary least squares estimators (DOLS) to draw the study findings. However, the estimated results show a negative association of land use with food security and supply. Likewise, energy transition, gross domestic product, and agricultural value added (AVA) contribute to the food security supply. In contrast, urbanization's negative but insignificant contribution to the food supply in selected economies exists. Besides, another core objective of the study is to investigate the moderate role of the energy transition on the gross domestic product, agriculture sector, and land use and find the significant contribution to the food supply. However, the current study also tries forecasting for the next 10 years and employs the impulse response function (IRF) and variance decomposition analysis (VDA). Congruently, this study uses the pairwise panel causality test and finds exciting outcomes. The COVID-19 crisis has posed challenges such as energy consumption and food security issues. On behalf of the results, the current study proposes imperative policies to investigate the desired level of food supply. The findings provide valuable insights for experts, policymakers, and officials to take practical measures for energy use and food security challenges.

In the Russian Federation, solving problems of land use, land relations, and land policy leave the basis for social, environmental, economic, and overall political stability of the state. The area of the Belgorod region is 2713.4 thousand hectares, including arable land - 1654.4 thousand hectares (61 %), pastures - 347.6 thousand hectares (12.8 %), hayfield - 68.1 thousand hectares (2.5 %), forests and other lands - 316.5 thousand hectares (22.7 %). The area of eroded soils is 53.6 % of the entire territory of the region. They include: slightly washed out soils - about 35 %, moderate washed out soils - about 13 %, strongly washed out soils - 5.6 %, and flushed - about 1 %. According to Belgorod agrarian scientific center of the RAS area of eroded lands in the Belgorod region has increased in the Western natural-agricultural zone - by 5.1 %, in the Central - by 8.4 % and in the South-East - by 9.1 % over the last 3040 years. Currently, the concept of adaptive landscape farming has been developed, which provides for comprehensive measures to prevent soil degradation and create environmentally sustainable agricultural landscapes. Adaptive landscape soil protection system of agriculture provides for expansion of perennial grasses up to 25 %, introduction of leguminous crops and annual grasses in crop rotations. With a reduction in the use of mineral and organic fertilizers in modern economic conditions, it is impossible to achieve a balance of humus acceptable for sustainable development of the studied agricultural landscape. System of agriculture adapted to local landscapes provides for introduction of the whole complex of soil conservation measures which can stop land degradation caused by soil erosion. Introduction of adaptive landscape system of agriculture in the pilot farm of the Belgorod agricultural research center allowed to minimize erosion processes, stabilize soil fertility, and significantly improve economic indicators and energy efficiency of agriculture in the economy. The area of arable land was slightly reduced, and the area of forest belts and soil protection crop rotations increased. The average yield of grain crops and sugar beets increased greatly, the use of organic and mineral fertilizers increased significantly, their payback improved, and the crop industry became profitable and cost-effective. Only through adaptive landscape agriculture it is possible to stop water erosion, create conditions for stabilizing and increasing soil fertility, ensure the biologization of agriculture and increase its economic efficiency. Ultimately, this will increase production of domestic agricultural products and increase Russias food security.

Regional food systems and organic agriculture are both considered more sustainable than the conventional, globalized food system they provide an alternative to. The emergence and expansion of alternative forms of food supply are influenced by various factors on different scales. Using the food systems approach we aim to study potentials and limitations of regional organic food supply in the Berlin metropolitan region (BMR). Based on the literature, we developed an analytical framework and identified determinants of regional organic food provision along the three major levels of the supply chain: agricultural production, food chain organization, and consumption. Then, we examined a qualitative case study with two different types of alternative food networks (A) organic community supported agriculture (CSA) and (B) organic retail trade. Factors that hinder or promote the provision of regional organic food were identified through qualitative interviews and assessed by regional stakeholders in a workshop. Our findings show that demand for regional organic food is higher than regional supply, which could offer good possibilities for organic farmers. However, actors in these two food chains need to overcome some obstacles, including limited access to land, increasing renting prices, insufficient processing capacities, and unsupportive political environment for organic farming.

The work is devoted to determining the methodology for studying the impact of constitutional law norms on economic relations in a modern constitutional state. The main methods of scientific knowledge used to form a reliable idea of the constitutional law regulation of the economy are considered. Russian and foreign doctrinal approaches to the methodology of studying economic relations are analyzed, examples of the application of theoretical concepts in current Russian constitutional norms are demonstrated. The author’s conclusions are formulated, reflecting the features of the methodology for studying the impact of constitutional and legal norms on economic relations in modern economic conditions.

In modern economic conditions, issues related to the changes that have taken place in the labor market in the context of the economic security of the state are becoming important. Ensuring a sufficient level of economic security of the state directly depends on the state of the labor market, structural changes and trends in its functioning, and the level of flexibility and adaptability to new socio-political conditions. The article aims to study modern trends in the development of the labor market in the context of the state's economic security. The authors analyzed the approaches to defining the essence of the «labor market» concept, which made it possible to systematize this category's scientific and methodological approaches. The article examines issues that highlight the situation in the Ukrainian labor market during the transformation of socio-economic processes and analyzes the impact of changes in the trends of the key parameters of the functioning of the labor market on the state's economic security. The analysis was carried out based on data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine, and the National Bank of Ukraine, which made it possible to determine the main trends in the development of the labor market, identify challenges that affect the formation of the labor potential of the economy, establish indicators of the level of economic security of the country and its components, which take into account indicators of the state and efficiency of the labor market. The authors characterized the labor market in martial law conditions in Ukraine, which made it possible to outline the main consequences and peculiarities of its functioning. The labor market should play a special role in ensuring the country's economic security during wartime. The article substantiates the need to implement measures in the labor market field. In particular, it is necessary to pay attention to the issues of successfully overcoming destructive processes in the demographic development of the population, increasing the level and quality of employment of the population, which will contribute to the improvement of economic, social, and labor relations in the country, and in the perspective of the formation of the effective and sufficient labor potential aimed at restoring the economy, the social infrastructure of the country and maintaining a high level of economic security of the state.

The book comprises 14 peer-reviewed chapters based on research on crime and security threats in relation to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. The book represents a multidisciplinary work that combines different views of safety and security provision in local environments, at the national level, as well as in the international environment. The chapters include findings of a literature review, empirical research on crime and victimization of individuals, case studies, specific forms of crime, institutional and civil society responses to security threats, as well as legal and police and policing perspectives in relation to safety and security provision in modern society.

A review article devoted to the book of Andrzej Blikle – Doktryna jakości. Rzecz o skutecznym zarządzaniu. As pointed out by the Author, the book is a case of a work rare on the Polish publishing market, written by an outstanding scientist, who successfully runs a business activity. The combination of practical experience with theoretical knowledge gave a result that may be satisfying both for practitioners as well as theorists, and also those who want to get to know the ins and outs of an effective and efficient business management. The Author of the review believes that it is an important voice for shaping an inclusive socio-economic system, which constitutes a value in itself. Although the book is mainly concerned with business management, its message has a much wider dimension and is concerned with real measures of wealth, money and people’s lives. The book was awarded The SGH Collegium of Business Administration Award “For the best scientific work in the field of business administration in the years 2014-2015”.

Purpose. To substantiate the scientific and theoretical foundations of the formation of feed centers in the united territorial communities in conditions of limited resources and to solve the problem of providing the population with livestock products. Methods. The dialectical method of scientific cognition, observation, comparison, abstract-logical and statistical-analytical analysis, graphic-illustrative method. Results. The peculiarities of the development of livestock in Ukraine in modern economic conditions are determined. The problems of dairy farming under martial law in Ukraine are characterized. It is established that with a decrease in the number of cows, their productivity increases, both in large farms and in small ones. It has been determined that the level of feed supply in small farms requires improvement of the level of feed supply and the quality of diets. This problem can be solved, according to the experience of developed countries, by forming feed centers on an integrative basis within individual territorial communities. The organizational and structural structure of a feed center within a typical rural territorial community is presented. The algorithm for the formation of a complete mixed diet in a feed center for different types of farm animals is formed. The basic requirements for the organization of complete feeding of highly productive cows are outlined. Conclusions. In the context of the European integration processes of domestic agricultural production, the problem of food supply, the decline of traditional livestock industries, the migration of economically active population, in particular from rural areas, the development of small-scale livestock production is becoming increasingly important. The formation of integration formations based on cooperation will help to solve the problem of providing the population with livestock products, employment of the rural population and socio-economic development of territorial communities.

The paper is devoted to the activities of enterprises and their impact on the state economy. The activities of enterprises are aimed at achieving economic and social results and making a profit in addition, it is related to the provision of the needs of each person, is subject to the influence of many factors and covers a wide range of organizational, technological, economic and financial issues. The paper analyzes the main aspects of the economic significance of the activities of enterprises for the effective functioning of the national economy. Business has been proven to be of global importance through financial inflows, foreign investment and share of gross domestic product. Stability of enterprise activity, achievement of competitive advantages, strengthening of the enterprise’s position on the market – all this is achieved by implementation of rational and carefully developed economic policy of business entities and state policy. That is why the problem of formation and management of the economic policy of the enterprise becomes especially relevant. The main aim of the research is to identify the risks and prospects of enterprise activity on the national economy in modern conditions. Support for the economy is provided only by those enterprises that correctly and competently determine the requirements of the market, organize the production of competitive products and services that are in demand, skillfully carry out highly qualified creative labor staff All this requires fundamental and in-depth economic knowledge, and therefore, appropriate training of economics specialists. The paper describes the state of enterprise activity, possible threats, prospects, and further vectors of development in the post-war period. The practical value of the research is reflected in the results of the work and its follow-up scientific research. The authors concludes that the following steps have been taken in recent years to improve the relationship between entrepreneurship and the national economy: comprehensive regulation of the business sector, development of a simplified program for permitting procedures and registration of property rights, high-quality and modern procedures for starting and closing a business, obtaining administrative services at the highest level, observance of state control over the activities of business entities and reforming the provision of administrative services, mitigation of taxation.

The article considers theoretical approaches to forecasting the development of the domestic economy and the stability of the fi nancial sector. The work uses an artificial intelligence system developed by the authors. The paper puts forward and proves the hypothesis that the use of the risk assessment of the financial sector calculated using the VaR model in the neural network AI system can be used to obtain the forecast value of the country’s GDP in order to provide support for managerial decision-making under conditions of uncertainty. Of great importance is the study of the theoretical foundations for increasing the stability of the Russian economy in modern conditions. The use of neural network models in GDP forecasting is an important tool for assessing and ensuring the sustainability of the Russian economy. The novelty of the study lies in the fact that an approach is proposed to fill the gap that concerns the problem of the lack of a reliable approach in assessing the risk of financial sector stability in order to ensure the sustainable development of the domestic economy. Get a correct forecast of the gross domestic product (GDP) in the face of market uncertainty. According to the VaR model, with a 99 % probability, the absolute value of the fi nancial risk of a reduction in the profits of the banking system of the Russian Federation may amount to 108.5 billion rubles in 2022, or 4.5226 %, and the amount of profi t may reach 2.3 trillion rubles. rub. The resulting neuroforecast of the value of GDP for 2022 is 79 023.4 billion rubles. 33.3 % higher than the 59 262.95 billion rubles, declared by experts, the total forecast value of GDP for 1Q. (28410) and 2 sq. (30853). To compare the accuracy of the forecast, it remains to wait until the actual values of GDP become known. The practical significance of the study lies in the fact that in the course of the study the prerequisites for solving an important national economic problem were formed — forecasting the value of GDP and ensuring the sustainable development of the country’s economy.

У статті визначено основні тенденції та проблеми монетизації вітчизняної економіки, досліджено особливості формування структури та динаміки грошових агрегатів і рівень їх збалансованості з темпами приросту внутрішнього продукту, визначено кількісний вплив рівня монетизації на темпи економічного зростання, обґрунтовано основні напрями вдосконалення управління процесом монетизації економіки України на основі підвищення ефективності грошово-кредитної політики та регулювання грошового обігу. Встановлено, що процес монетизації характеризує рівень монетарної збалансованості грошово-кредитного ринку та окремих секторів економіки і покликаний сприяти підтримці стабільності фінансової системи та стимулювати економічне зростання.

Introduction. In conditions of modern economy, one of the indicators of economic development and the presence of positive environment for private business development is the household income level from entrepreneurship. But the instability of political and economic events in recent years has had a significant impact on private entrepreneurs activity. So the studying the structure and dynamics of household income from entrepreneurial activity today is an important area of research. The purpose of the research is to analyze and establish the main trends in the development of household income from entrepreneurial activity in the structure of cash income and total resources. Research methods. The methodological basis of the work is the conclusions and generalizations of economic science and scientific works on the subject of research the structure and dynamics of household income from entrepreneurial activity. The research uses logical, comparative and complex approaches, as well as methods of observation, comparison, graphical and complex analysis. Results. The paper studies the composition and dynamics of household income from the sale of entrepreneurial skills implementation in the structure of cash income and total resources, which shows almost doubled household income from entrepreneurial activity in the sampling period, as well as a significant increase in household income from agricultural products sales and property income. Based on research of household income in the structure of cash income and total resources by geolocation, it was found that the highest level of household income from entrepreneurship activity is reached in large and small towns, and household income from agricultural products sales and household income from property - in villages. According to results of the analysis of household incomes from entrepreneurial skills implementation, depending on the region, it was found that the highest level was reached by the regions of western and central Ukraine, and Kyiv. Based on the tools of correlation and regression analysis, it was determined the main factors of environmental influences on household income from entrepreneurial activity, which are the fluctuations in the inflation index and gross domestic product (GDP). Conclusion. Thus, the tendency to reduce of some income categories from entrepreneurial skills implementation, particularly in terms of income from agricultural products sales in rural households, which are the most sensitive to economic fluctuations, requires a comprehensive review and improvement of business conditions for small businesses at the national level. The scientific value of study is to determine the main trends in household income from entrepreneurship activity, which will allow to get quality information on the private business development level, to use it to predict the future development of small business and in developing normative acts on state regulation of entrepreneurship.

Aim. To analyze the degree of investment impact on economic growth in modern Russia.Objectives. To study the multiplier effect as a key tool for stimulating economic activity and creating new jobs, developing innovations and reducing social inequality; to identify its significance for the national economy in modern conditions of inherent uncertainty.Methods. The research is based on the empirical study of the multiplier effect and gas pedal effect on the materials of the modern Russian economy. The analysis is based on the use of dynamic time series, definition of dependent and independent variables in the context of identified correlations between them. The data of literary sources on the assessment of the impact of the investment multiplier effect on economic growth were also studied.Results. The multiplier effect can have a significant impact on the formation of the structure of the economy, contributing to an increase in production, reducing unemployment and improving the standard of living of the population. The study of this effect allows us to better understand the mechanisms of economic functioning and develop recommendations for optimizing investment policy to achieve sustainable economic growth, which is important for modern Russia developing under sanctions pressure. The study of paired regression revealed a mathematical relationship between the increase in investment in fixed capital and the growth of gross domestic product (GDP), as well as between GDP growth and the increase in investment in fixed capital. The high correlation coefficient (r = 0.945896) and coefficient of determination (R² = 89.47 %) confirm that there is a strong relationship between fixed capital investment and GDP. This indicates that most of the changes in output can be explained through changes in fixed capital investment.Conclusions. The results of the analysis confirm the importance of investment in fixed capital as a key factor of economic growth and development in modern Russia. Strengthening investment activity allows not only to increase the level of economic development as a whole, but also contributes to the creation of favorable conditions for sustainable growth of income of the population, innovation activity, etc. In this regard, investment stimulation should become one of the priorities in the current Russian economic policy.

The study of the issues of assessing performance indicators and intensification of finance in the activities of corporations operating in modern economic conditions is necessary and relevant. The purpose of the study is to identify a group of indicators of financial and economic activity to assess the effectiveness of the corporation (corporate finance). In the course of the research, a toolkit has been developed, which is a group of indicators that allow corporations to analyze indicators of financial and economic activity in generalized and detailed forms. When choosing the resulting and factor indicators of efficiency and intensification, the author's position was based on taking into account the current economic environment, namely, the multidisciplinary activity of corporations (on the scale of state borders and beyond) and a high share of borrowed capital for the implementation of business processes in the field of core and non-core types of entrepreneurship. The research indicators in generalized and detailed forms were direct and indirect profitability. These indicators refer to the resulting performance indicators, calculated by comparing profit and consumed capital (its factor indicators). Changes in profit and capital are the resulting indicators of intensification, under the influence of the effectiveness and cost (factor indicators affecting it) of entrepreneurial national and international projects of corporations. The generated indicators fully correspond to the current economic environment and the economic nature of the categories “efficiency” and “intensification”. With their use, it is possible to calculate the dependence not only between the resulting and factor indicators, but also to analyze the interactions of the factor indicators themselves. These indicators meet all economic postulates and are fully adapted to generally recognized economic requirements, in particular, of a financial-economic and financial-management nature. The proposed approach will help maximize financial benefits through an objective analysis of the efficiency and intensification of business operations

Regional food supply, organic farming, and changing food consumption are three major strategies to reduce the environmental impacts of the agricultural sector. In the German Federal State of Baden-Württemberg (population: 11 million), multiple policy and economic incentives drive the uptake of these three strategies, but quantitative assessments of their overall impact abatement potential are lacking. Here, the question of how much food can be produced regionally while keeping environmental impacts within political targets is tackled by comparing a scenario of maximum productivity to an optimal solution obtained with a multi-objective optimization (MO) approach. The investigation covers almost the entirety of productive land in the state, two production practices (organic or conventional), four environmental impact categories, and three demand scenarios (base, vegetarian, and vegan). We present an area-based indicator to quantify the self-sufficiency of regional food supply, as well as the database required for its calculation. Environmental impacts are determined using life cycle assessment. Governmental goals for reducing environmental impacts from agriculture are used by the MO to determine and later rate the different Pareto-efficient solutions, resulting in an optimal solution for regional food supply under environmental constraints. In the scenario of maximal output, self-sufficiency of food supply ranged between 61% and 66% (depending on the diet), and most political targets could not be met. On the other hand, the optimal solution showed a higher share of organic production (ca. 40%–80% com¬pared to 0%) and lower self-sufficiency values (between 40% and 50%) but performs substantially better in meeting political targets for environmental impact reduction. At the county level, self-sufficiency varies between 2% for densely populated urban districts and 80% for rural counties. These results help policy-makers benchmark and refine their goalsetting regarding regional self-sufficiency and environmental impact reduction, thus ensuring effective policymaking for sustainable community development.