Impact of Rapid Urbanization and Climate Change on Agricultural Productivity in Africa

Africa continues to experience serious signs of multiple crises in the context of sustainability. These crises include vulnerability to climate change, rapid urbanization, food insecurity, and many others. One crisis, that defines Africa today, is the unprecedented rapid urbanization which continues to pose a big challenge to the diminishing available resources, environmental quality and human well-being. Cities in Africa continue to experience a fast horizontal growth of settlements due to influx of people from rural areas who often settle in the economically lowest segments in urban areas. This horizontal rapid growth has eaten up land set for agriculture around cities and promoted the rapid growth of informal settlements exacerbating the impacts of climate change leading to a negative impact on agricultural production. Policies linking rapid urbanization and climate change with agricultural productivity are need. This paper explores and documents the impact of rapid urbanization on climate change policies and subsequent impact on agriculture in Africa.

International audience

ABSTRACTClimate change and political instability have implications for food and agricultural production. Africa is often described as one of the most vulnerable continents to the impacts of climate change, political instability, and conflicts. However, empirical evidence on the impacts of climate change, political instability, and violent conflicts on food and agricultural production is scanty and mixed. A better understanding of the impacts of climate change and political instability on food and agricultural production on the continent is needed to achieve some of the sustainable development goals. This paper investigates the impacts of climate change and political instability on food and agricultural production in Africa. The study relied on panel data from 43 countries spanning a period of 20 years (2000–2019). The data were obtained from the World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal, World Development Indicators, and FAOSTAT databases. Using the panel autoregressive distributed lag model, we find that the annual maximum number of consecutive dry days, temperature, and rainfall data significantly decreased the food production index, livestock production index, cereal production, and crop production index in the long run. Also, we find that total greenhouse gas emissions significantly increased the food production index, livestock production index, cereal production, total fisheries production, and crop production index in the long run. Political stability significantly increased the livestock production index, cereal production, and total fisheries production in the long run, while employment in agriculture significantly increased the food production index, crop production index, and total fisheries production in the long run. We conclude that climate change and political stability impact agricultural production in Africa.

Earlier research largely ignored the effects of climate change on the growth of agricultural total factor productivity (TFP) in Africa. This study shows how climate inputs impact TFP growth in addition to other productivity growth indicators and metrics, as well as how they can impact overall input efficiency as productivity drivers. We use a panel of 42 African nations from 1999 to 2019 and a nonparametric data envelopment analysis-Malmquist technique. The non-parametric analysis revealed that the average growth rate of the non-climate-induced TFP estimates was 1.9%, while the average growth rate of the climate-induced TFP estimates was 2.4%. Accounting for temperature and precipitation separately, TFP grew by 2.3% on average. This growth rate (2.3%) is slightly less than the combined effect of temperature and precipitation (2.4%) but higher than the typical TFP growth rate (1.9%) that ignores climate variables, indicating that TFP growth in African agriculture risks being underestimated when climate inputs are ignored. We also find the distribution of the climate effects to vary across regions. In northern Africa, for example, the temperature-induced TFP growth rates were negative due to rising temperature in the region. Evidence from the decomposed TFP estimates indicates that climate variables also influence productivity determinants. However, technology improvement is fundamental to mitigating the effects of extreme weather inputs on TFP growth in Africa's agriculture. As a result, a few policy suggestions are provided to help policymakers deal with the effects of climate change on TFP growth in Africa's agriculture and ensure food security. The study advocated for a reevaluation of the climate–agriculture effect in order to fully comprehend the role of climate factors and their contributions to agricultural TFP growth in Africa.

This study examines the relationship between renewable energy consumption, trade openness and agricultural productivity in Africa. Specifically, the study examines the intensity of the type of renewable energy consumed in Africa; investigates the effect of renewable energy consumption on agricultural productivity in Africa and analyse the effect of trade openness on agricultural productivity via the consumption of renewable energy in Africa. In achieving this, the System Generalized Methods of Moments (SYSGMM) estimation technique is employed while also checking the robustness of the result using the cross section augmented distributed lag model estimation technique. The result from the study shows that hydro and low carbon type of renewable energy accounts for over 90% of the renewable energy consumed in Africa between 2000 and 2020. Also, the result from the study shows that there is a positive and significant impact of renewable energy consumption on agricultural productivity in Africa. Trade openness and agricultural productivity have a positive relationship as trade openness facilitates the importation of machines that uses renewable energy in the agricultural value chain system. Thus, encouraging policy actions and the intensification of the use of renewable energy improves agricultural productivity in Africa. At regional level and in the long run, renewable energy consumption has a positive and significant effect on agricultural productivity only in Central and Southern region of Africa. Also, at the regional level, trade globalization has a positive and significant impact on agricultural productivity by enhancing the deployment of machines that uses renewable energy in the agricultural productivity in Central and Southern regions of Africa in the long run, and in the Eastern and Western regions of Africa in the short run. The use of renewable energy in the agricultural value-added space requires the deployment of new and innovative equipment which are mostly imported into Africa just like the processing and irrigation equipment; and these guarantees increase in agricultural productivity and efficiency. There is the need for respective governments of African economies and international development partners to provide finance for farmers which encouragesimportation of renewable energy enabled agricultural machineries used for processing, irrigation, packaging, refrigerating, transport system, storage, and handling value chains to guarantee improved agricultural productivity. Keywords: Agricultural Productivity; Renewable Energy Consumption; Trade Openness.

Purpose– The purpose of this paper is to examine the connections of agricultural productivity, access to credit and farm size in Africa using Ghana as a case study.Design/methodology/approach– The paper employs mixed methods – quantitative and qualitative strategies for data collection and analyses. The hierarchical competitive model was used for the quantitative analyses supplemented with qualitative analyses using key informant interviews, focus group discussions and household case studies.Findings– The results show that there is significant relationship between credit from formal and informal sources and agricultural productivity. Thus access to formal and informal credit increases farm household agricultural productivity by about 0.10 (p=0.05) and 0.45 (p< 0.01), respectively. The quadratic terms of formal and informal credit as well as farm size were found to significantly influence agricultural productivity. The implication of this is that the relationships between formal credit, informal credit and farm size on one hand and agricultural productivity on the other are non-linear in nature. The interactions of formal credit with informal credit; informal credit with farm size; and formal and informal credit with farm size have significant relationships with agricultural productivity. The amount of remittance received by farm households has negative and insignificant influence on agricultural productivity. Market access is also an insignificant determinant of agricultural productivity in Ghana.Originality/value– This paper provides new insights on whether the scale of production (farm size as proxy) and access to financial services (credit as a proxy) matter in promoting agricultural productivity in Africa using Ghana as a case study. Thus the paper is of relevance to policy-makers and practitioners in Africa and Ghana in particular who are seeking to make informed policy decisions on effectively incorporating credit provision into the agricultural transformation agenda of the continent.

Climate change is one of the most pressing issues of our day, posing a threat to the lives and livelihoods of billions of people worldwide. Natural disasters, biodiversity loss, and rising temperatures destroy crops, diminish ecosystems, put livelihoods in jeopardy, and accelerate the spread of fatal diseases. Climate change mixes population trends, migration, and greater urbanisation, putting the most vulnerable people at risk. Climate change is the most important impediment to achieving sustainable development through biodiversity conservation, and it threatens to impoverish millions of people. Species distributions have changed to higher altitudes at a median pace of 11.0 m and 16.9 km per decade to higher latitudes as a result of climate change. As a result, under migration scenarios, extinction rates for 1103 species range from 21–23% with unrestricted migration to 38–52% with no migration. When an environmental change happens on a period shorter than the plant’s life, a plastic phenotypic may emerge as a reaction. Phenotypic flexibility, on the other hand, might protect species against the enduring impacts of climate change. Climate change also has an impact on food security, especially in people and areas that rely on rainfed agriculture. Crops and plants have growth and yield limits that must be respected. As a result, agricultural productivity in Africa alone might plummet by more than 30% by 2050. Climate change is already wreaking havoc on people’s lives, especially the impoverished. Because rural people rely on natural resources, their livelihoods are jeopardised by frequent climate change. The impact of climate change on natural resource-based rural livelihoods is anticipated to be uneven and ecosystem resilience will be strengthened as a result of biodiversity conservation, and ecosystems will be better able to deliver critical functions in the face of increasing climate stresses. Moreover, as a consequence of global influence, the warming trend has changed significantly over the years. In addition to ensuring the livelihood security of rural people, a number of adaptation approaches species and ecosystems in a changing climate may be recommended.

Agricultural Productivity in Africa: Trends, Patterns, and Determinants presents updated and new analyses of land, labor, and total productivity trends in African agriculture. It brings together analyses of a unique mix of data sources and evaluations of public policies and development projects to recommend ways to increase agricultural productivity in Africa. This book is timely in light of the recent and ongoing growth recovery across the continent. The good news is that agricultural productivity in Africa increased at a moderate rate between 1961 and 2012, although there are variations in the rate of growth in land, labor, and total factor productivities depending on country and region. Differences in input use and capital intensities in agricultural production in the various farming systems and agricultural productivity zones also affect advancements in technology. One conclusion based on the book’s research findings derives from the substantial spatial variation in agricultural productivity. For areas with similar agricultural productivity growth trends and factors, what works well in one area can be used as the basis for formulating best-fit, location-specific agricultural policies, investments, and interventions in similar areas. This finding along with others will be of particular interest to policy- and decisionmakers.

Modeling the impact of urbanization and climate changes on terrestrial vegetation productivity in China by a neighborhood substitution analysis

Future changes in the climate are projected to significantly affect the agricultural sector, notably agricultural production which include cropland suitability. The present study examines the impact of climate change on crop suitability and planting season in Africa under the new Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). Using the multi-model ensemble climate simulation datasets from the CMIP6 simulations under different SSPs (ssp126, 245, 370 & 585) for the historical (1980-2009), near future (2035-2064) and end of century (2070-2099) study periods. Ecocrop, a crop suitability model was used to investigate the impact of climate change at different SSPs on the suitability and planting season of three crop types, cereals (maize), legumes (Cowpea) and root and tuber (Cassava) over Africa owing to their economic importance to the region. Our findings show all three crops are mainly suitable over most part of Africa with suitability index above 0.5 except south of 20oS in southern Africa and in the Sahel zone (north of 14oN) over the historical period. In general, the impact of climate change leads to about 4% and 7% increase in suitable cropland for Maize and Cowpea respectively relative to the historical period while about 4% suitability decrease is projected for Cassava across the four SSPs. Also, a projected decrease about 1-2% in unsuitable area is projected for the three crops both for near future and end of century relative to the historical period. In addition, no change in planting season is expected across the four SSPs except for a projected 1-2month early planting season for Cassava over West and Central Africa in the near future and end of century and 2-month delay in the planting season for cassava over Congo DR by the end of century under carbon emission with no adaptation (ssp585). The study will assist to improve our understanding on the impact climate change under different SSPs on agricultural production in Africa. It will also help inform policy maker in their decision making of adaptation strategies to ensure food security and zero hunger in sub-Saharan Africa.Keywords : Cropland suitability, Ecocrop, Africa, climate chnage, planting season, CMIP6  

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment of major risks for African agriculture and food security caused by climate change during coming decades is confirmed by a review of more recent climate change impact assessments (14 quantitative, six qualitative). Projected impacts relative to current production levels range from -100% to +168% in econometric, from -84% to +62% in process-based, and from -57% to +30% in statistical assessments. Despite large uncertainty, there are several robust conclusions from published literature for policy makers and research agendas: agriculture everywhere in Africa runs some risk to be negatively affected by climate change; existing cropping systems and infrastructure will have to change to meet future demand. With respect to growing population and the threat of negative climate change impacts, science will now have to show if and how agricultural production in Africa can be significantly improved.

Rapid urbanisation is affecting people in different ways, with some becoming more vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Africa’s cities are projected to be home to nearly 60% of the continent’s population by 2050. In conjunction with climate change, these cities are experiencing critical environmental challenges, including changes in the urban thermal environment. Urban areas generally exhibit significantly higher air and surface temperatures than their surrounding rural areas, resulting in urban heat islands. However, little has been done to synthesise existing knowledge and identify the key research gaps in this area, particularly in Africa. This paper focuses on the combined effects of urbanisation and climate change on the urban thermal environment in Africa, and provides a comprehensive review of results, major advances and the dominant direction of research. Our review of 40 publications from peer-reviewed journals from 2000 to 2021 revealed that South Africa, Ethiopia and Nigeria were most frequently studied, and satellite imagery-based data and analysis were used predominantly. Results from a few studies have shown the practical implications for urban land-use planning, informal settlement management, human wellbeing and productivity, energy use, air pollution and disease spread. Integrated approaches, strengthening planning institutions, and early warning systems are proposed to address climate change. Low-income groups are emphasised in efforts to help people cope with heat stress. Solutions based on land use and land cover dynamics and blue–green infrastructure are mentioned but are in need of further research. Cities with similar patterns of urbanisation, geographies and climate conditions could benefit from multi-disciplinary research collaboration to address the combined impacts of rapid urbanisation and climate change.

PurposeEmpirical evidence abounds on the individual effect of financial development and remittances on agricultural production, but little is known about their complementary role, especially in the context of African countries. This study fills this knowledge gap by examining the moderating role of financial development in the agricultural production–remittance nexus in Africa.Design/methodology/approachDifferent measures of financial development were employed, and the panel quantile regression model was adopted to analyse panel data of 33 African countries covering the period 2005–2020.FindingsThe results indicate that the effects of financial development on agricultural production vary across quantiles, and the dynamics of agricultural production are sensitive to the choice of financial development indicator. Nevertheless, financial development and remittances are highly indispensable for improved agricultural production in Africa, as financial development complements the positive effect of remittances on agricultural production.Practical implicationsAfrican countries need to strengthen their financial sector to facilitate the effective mobilization of remittances and other financial resources for investment in the agricultural sector and the improvement of the sector’s productivity.Originality/valueTo the best of our knowledge, this is the first study that documents empirical evidence on the complementary role of financial development and remittances on agricultural production in Africa.

Tenure, Agricultural Investment, and Productivity in the Customary Tenure Sector of Malawi

Abstract
Africa’s agriculture, largely rain-dependent, is exceptionally vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, with projected shifts in temperature and precipitation patterns posing significant challenges for crop production, water availability, and food security. This study investigates the potential of two Solar Radiation Modification (SRM) approaches, Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (Gsulfur) and Solar Dimming (Gsolar) in modifying precipitation dynamics and agro-climatic indices across the African continent under future climate scenarios. Utilizing datasets from the CMIP6 and GeoMIP6, we analyse alterations in key agro-climatic indices under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The results showed that while both Gsolar and Gsulfur demonstrate the capacity to attenuate temperature increases associated with global warming, their influence on precipitation is heterogeneous, with significant potential for both beneficial and adverse impacts. SAI may enhance rainfall in Sahara (SAH) and North Africa (NAF) while it reduces rainfall in the Central Africa (CAF) and Central East Africa (CEAF) region, thereby introducing potential risks for agricultural productivity and water availability. SAI and SD contribute to the higher frequency of wet days under the two emission scenarios but are likely to reduce total annual rainfall and heavy rainfall which can complicate water resources. This study further examines how growing season length (GSL) in Africa changes under SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios. The impact of G6sulfur (Gsolar) interventions relative to SSP2-4.5 may leads to a GSL decrease about 5-15 (1-16) days over the region while an increase of similar magnitude is expected over Madagascar, MDG (CEAF). With higher emission, the impact of G6solar intervention relative to SSP5-8.5 may lead to an increase of about 5 -15 days over the region except but a decrease over MDG, Southeast Africa (SEAF) and CEAF. The projected trends in agroclimatic indices were found to be similar under GHG and geoengineering at CAF, CEAF, and SWAF during growing season period. In these regions, CDD declined between 2070 and 2099 while CWD and PRCPTOT increased. This has implications for the economies based on agricultural production in Africa. Our study has helped improve our understanding of how global warming and SRM approaches can impact agricultural production in Africa and inform policymakers about the trade-offs between SAI and other GHG adaptation strategies.
Keywords: Africa, Agriculture, Climate Change, Food Security, Geoengineering, Growing Season Length (GSL).