Impact of Patient’s Age and Physician’s Professional Background on the Number Needed to Treat in Malignant Melanoma Detection

Abstract

Background/Objectives: With regard to excision of pigmented lesions for detection of malignant melanoma (MM), the number needed to treat (NNT) describes the number of melanocytic nevi that need to be biopsied/excised to detect one MM. The aim should be a low NNT. Methods: Single-center data analysis, including dermatohistopathological records of all nevi and MM cases during 2004–2013 at the Department of Dermatology, University Hospital Regensburg (UKR), was performed. We calculated the NNT, correlating it with the patient’s age and referring physician. The MM to MM in situ ratio was calculated to quantify early detection. As a secondary objective, we stratified into a pre- and post-2008 dataset, coinciding with the introduction of statutory skin cancer screening in Germany. Results: The overall NNT of 118,668 pigmented lesions was 17.2. We found a linear decrease in NNT towards older patients (R2 = 62%; p < 0.001). The impact of skin cancer screening in 2008 was marked by a reduction in biopsies/excisions, a shift in age distribution, and a decrease in the NNT from 20.3 to 14.7. Office-based dermatologists had an NNT of 22.3, UKR-based dermatologists had an NNT of 8.0, and non-dermatologists had an NNT of 16.5. Conclusions: The age-related decrease in the NNT emphasizes the importance of age stratification for pigmented lesions. The NNT differed between professional settings. The implementation of skin cancer screening in 2008 was associated with a reduced NNT.