Impact of multidimensional urbanization on carbon emissions in an ecological civilization experimental area of China

Abstract

Clarifying the causes and effects of spatiotemporal differences between multidimensional urbanization and carbon emissions is of guiding significance to the construction of carbon neutrality pathways. Using 2007–2018 panel data from 11 prefecture-level cities in Jiangxi Province, China's first group of ecological civilization experimental areas, an econometric model was constructed, and Driscoll-Kraay estimation was used to explore the impact and effect differences of multidimensional urbanization on carbon emissions. Spatial autocorrelation was used to analyse the temporal and spatial evolution of carbon emissions. The results show that: (1) overall, the multidimensional variables of urbanization have significant regional effects on the carbon emissions of the Jiangxi ecological civilization experimental area and its two subregions. (2) In terms of temporal and spatial evolution, carbon emissions in the study area fluctuated upward, but the range gradually narrowed. The fluctuation of carbon emissions in 2009–2018 was slightly higher than that in 2007–2009. The global spatial autocorrelation changes from weak to strong and finally to weak. The spatial distribution of the cold and hot spots of carbon emissions presents a spatial pattern of "cold spots in the east and hot spots in the west", but the internal structure of the cold and hot spots fluctuates greatly. (3) Population, economy, energy, and social urbanization played positive roles in promoting carbon emissions, while ecological urbanization played a role in blocking carbon emissions. Particularly, carbon emissions in Northern Jiangxi were mainly affected by ecological and social urbanization while economic and energy urbanization played a positive role in carbon emissions in Southern Jiangxi. For this reason, when constructing a carbon neutrality pathway in the ecological civilization experimental area, we should pay attention to guiding the rational flow of population and talent, to optimize the economic and energy structure, reduce urban construction carbon sources and increase green carbon sinks.