Abstract
Purpose – The objective of the article is to analyse how income inequality affects population decisions on emigration. Research methodology – Correlation and regression analysis are used to determine the relationship between the analysed social phenomena. Firstly, the correlation between income inequality (its change) and emigration rates is calculated. Secondly, the static and dynamic aspect is evaluated, as well as the influence of data delay (lag) on decision-making. Finally, a regression equation is constructed, showing how one variable affects the other. Findings – The analysis identifies the conditions and severity of population income inequality that may influence their emigration decisions. On the one hand, the impact is more substantial in the crisis and post-crisis period, and, on the other, in the new EU member states. Research limitations – Sensibility of emigration to different conditions like accessibility (i.e. the opportunity to emigrate freely, such as being a member of the Schengen area) and the income gap between countries of origin and destination is a major limitation of the article which should be examined more closely in later works. Practical implications – The analysis of emigration problem and the identification of its possible links with income inequality would allow economists to assess a priori potential of various measures suggested in practice and, consequently, would allow for the more targeted formulation of the State economic policy. Originality/Value – The novelty of the article is defined by insufficient scientific research of relationships between income inequality and emigration as socio-economic phenomena within the new EU member states. A scientific analysis of the problem of emigration and the identification of its possible links with income inequality would contribute to a more detailed study of the scientific aspects of emigration and income inequality.
Highlights
The admission of Lithuania as well as the other Eastern and Central European countries to the European Union consolidated the principle of the rule of law, enhanced the processes of establishing democratic principles and civil society and significantly accelerated the economic development of the country
Correlation analysis is carried out in two aspects that can relatively be called dynamic and static: 1. The dynamic dimension of the analysis aims to assess the correlation between income inequality and emigration in the analysed countries, taken individually for the whole period of 2008–2017, for example, what was the correlation between income inequality and emigration in Lithuania in the 2008–2017 period
It was determined that in the period of 2008–2017 the correlation between income inequality and emigration rates was positive in 19 countries and negative in 12 countries out of 31 European countries surveyed (Table 1)
Summary
The admission of Lithuania as well as the other Eastern and Central European countries to the European Union consolidated the principle of the rule of law, enhanced the processes of establishing democratic principles and civil society and significantly accelerated the economic development of the country. Under the European Values Study in 2016, only 40% of Lithuanians expressed confidence in their country’s Parliament and 31% of the population expressed their confidence in political parties while the other European countries surveyed averaged respectively 56% and 40% (European Values Study, 2016) Such low levels of confidence in Lithuania indicate that the significant institutes of democratic civil society as the Government, political parties and Parliament have lost public confidence. It might be the cause of continued and even accelerated emigration from Lithuania despite impressive economic achievements (Laurinavičius et al, 2018)
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