Abstract
Evaluation of the influence of land-use/cover (LUC) change on water and sediment fluxes from river basins is essential for proposing adaptation and mitigation strategies, but as of yet little information is available, especially in the tropics. For this motivation, the objective of this study was to assess the impact of scenarios of LUC change on streamflow and sediment load in the Be River Basin using the Dynamic Conversion of Land-Use and its Effects (Dyna-CLUE) model and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The Dyna-CLUE and SWAT models were calibrated and validated against observed data in the period of 1980–2010. Three future LUC scenarios in 2030, 2050, and 2070 were generated utilizing the calibrated Dyna-CLUE model based on the historical conversion of forest land to agricultural land and urban area in the study region. Subsequently, the calibrated SWAT model was used to simulate the changes in streamflow and sediment load under these three future LUC scenarios. Results indicated that the annual streamflow and sediment load were estimated to be approximately 287.35 m3/s and 101.23 × 103 ton/month for the baseline period. Under the influence of future LUC scenarios, the annual streamflow and sediment load would experience increases of 0.19% to 0.45% and 0.22% to 0.68%, respectively. In addition, the 5th and 95th percentile values of streamflow and sediment load are predicted to rise in the context of future LUC change. The results achieved from the present study will support the managers and policy makers proposing appropriate solutions for sustainable water resources management and sediment control in the context of LUC change.
Highlights
Rapid population growth, urbanization, and economic development result in increases in water, energy, and food demands, which accelerate pressures on land and water resources across the globe [1]
Wang et al implemented an evaluation of the influence of future LUC change on phosphorus loadings utilizing a combination of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and the Dynamic Conversion of Land-Use and its Effects (Dyna-CLUE) model and reported that the transformation of agriculture land and dryland into forest land would result in reductions in phosphorus loadings in the Xiangxi River Basin in China [8]
The aim of the present study is to examine the annual and seasonal responses of streamflow and sediment load to changing LUC scenarios in the years 2030, 2050, and 2070 in the Be River Basin (BRB) in Vietnam
Summary
Urbanization, and economic development result in increases in water, energy, and food demands, which accelerate pressures on land and water resources across the globe [1]. Wang et al implemented an evaluation of the influence of future LUC change on phosphorus loadings utilizing a combination of the SWAT model and the Dynamic Conversion of Land-Use and its Effects (Dyna-CLUE) model and reported that the transformation of agriculture land and dryland into forest land would result in reductions in phosphorus loadings in the Xiangxi River Basin in China [8]. Ngo and Nguyen conducted a similar study in the Nam Rom River Basin and reported that the reforestation reduced sediment yield during the period 1992–2015 [19] These studies have mainly focused on the influence of past LUC change and very few studies have conducted an inquiry into how future LUC change will affect streamflow and sediment load, which is essential for a robust understanding of the potential influences of LUC change on land and water resources in the region. This study is expected to provide information to managers and policy makers for sustainable management of water and soils
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