Abstract
During the last 40 years, the quantity and spatial patterns of farmland in Western Jilin have changed dramatically, which has had a great impact on soybean production potential. This study used one of the most advanced crop production potential models, the Global Agro-Ecological Zones model, to calculate the soybean production potential in Western Jilin based on meteorological, topography, soil and land use data, and analyzed the impact of farmland change on soybean production potential during 1975–2013. The main conclusions were the following: first, the total soybean production potential in Western Jilin in 2013 was 8.92 million tonnes, and the average soybean production potential was 1612 kg/ha. The production potential of eastern area was higher than the other areas of Western Jilin. Second, farmland change led to a growth of 3.30 million tonnes in soybean production potential between 1975 and 2000, and a decrease of 1.03 million tonnes between 2000 and 2013. Third, taking account of two situations of farmland change, the conversion between dryland and other categories, and the change of irrigation percentage led to the total soybean production potential in Western Jilin increased by 2.31 and only 0.28 million tonnes respectively between 1975 and 2000, and increased by 0.12 and 0.29 million tonnes respectively between 2000 and 2013. In general, the increase of soybean potential production was mainly due to grassland and woodland reclamation. The results of this study would be a good guideline for protecting safe baseline of farmland, managing land resources, and ensuring continuity and stability of soybean supply and food security.
Highlights
Food is a specialized commodity and an important strategic reserve relating directly to a country’s well-being [1,2]
This study intended to analyze the impact of farmland change on soybean production potential in Western Jilin from 1975 to 2013
We first analyzed the change of dryland quality and spatial distribution during 1975–2013 in Western Jilin, and used the Global Agro-Ecological Zones (GAEZ) model to study its impact on soybean production potential
Summary
Food is a specialized commodity and an important strategic reserve relating directly to a country’s well-being [1,2]. Food security is an important part of national security. Soybean is one of the most important food and oil crops in China. Soybean imports in China increased nearly 100 times, from 580 thousand tonnes in 1996 to 58.38 million tonnes in 2012, while soybean production has been around 15 million tonnes and even has started to decline in recent years [3]. China’s agricultural administration has called for a restructuring of agricultural production to increase the soybean planting area. To improve soybean yield and ensure soybean supply and guide import and export, it is of great significance to study soybean production potential
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