人口減少下における消費変動が愛知県の市町村経済に与える影響

Japan is susceptible to earthquakes and tsunamis. This study investigates how production activities in 54 municipalities of Aichi Prefecture recovered from a tsunami which will be caused by the Nankai megathrust earthquakes in near future. We propose a dynamic bottleneck model that uses the inter-regional input–output tables of the 54 municipalities. By applying a sequential, hypothetical extraction method and simulation analysis, we clarify the recovery process of municipal economies after the stoppage and subsequent resumption of production activities in the coastal area of Aichi Prefecture. We also focus on the surrounding disaster areas of Mikawa Port and the flooded areas in the hazard map published by Aichi Prefecture.