Abstract
Impacts of climate variability and disease prevalence on crop productivity (particularly wheat yield) are becoming major concern on their stable supply that affecting the livelihood of the farmers and consumers in South-East Ethiopia. The study was carried out with general objective to examine the effect of precipitation, temperature variation and disease prevalence on winter wheat (Triticum Aestivum Lam) for the last 20 years in Sinana farm of Oromia Seed Enterprise south east Ethiopia. Temperature and precipitation trends were evaluated using Sen’s slope estimator and Mann-Kendall trend test methods. The Pearson’s correlation coefficient was used to measure the strength of the association between crop yield and climatic variability. Predictor models on productivity status comprising disease prevalence associated to climate variability for 20 years were established. A1°C temperature rise in average seasonal maximum temperature above the optimum brought productivity reduction by 1.17% coefficient of determination R<sup>2</sup>=0.428. Further, in 1°C temperature rise, the regression analysis of the productivity related to stem rust prevalence was subjected to a positive impact under Tmin, Tmax, RH, and seasonal RF with coefficient of determination R<sup>2</sup>=0.756. On the other hand, yellow rust prevalence was positively correlated with minimum temperature, maximum temperature and average relative humidity, but it was negatively correlated with average seasonal temperature. The study concluded that the variability of climate elements has been exerting a huge impact on the quality and quantity of winter wheat.
Highlights
The effectiveness of temperature and rainfall on wheat production and yield is a significant tool of agronomy
Yellow rust prevalence was rising over the last 20 years as positively correlated with minimum temperature (r=0.29), maximum temperature (r=0.21) and average relative humidity (r=0.15) described in figure 6. It was negatively correlated with average seasonal temperature (r=-0.25) and seasonal precipitation (r=-0.26)
The study revealed that high variability of monthly and total seasonal precipitation in the winter wheat production has been fluctuating resulted in productivity reduction in Sinana Farm and its surrounding locations
Summary
The effectiveness of temperature and rainfall on wheat production and yield is a significant tool of agronomy. Under particular climatic conditions, wheat requires different amounts of water during its stage of growth. During seedling, sprouting and early growth, crop uses water at the relatively slow rate. As growth proceeds, this rate will increase to reach a maximum and declining toward maturity [5]. The effect of rainfall variability on wheat production varies with types of varieties grown, types and properties of soils and climatic conditions of a given area [6]. Change in temperature and rainfall would change phonological requirements of future crops will, likely be the first factor to explore in explaining differences in yields [8]. Rainfall variability usually results in reduction of 20% production and 25% raise in poverty rates in Ethiopia [9]
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