Impact of Climate Change on Distribution of Endemic Plant Section Tuberculata (Camellia L.) in China: MaxEnt Model-Based Projection

Abstract

Sect. Tuberculata, as one of the endemic plant groups in China, belongs to the genus Camellia of the Theaceae family and possesses significant economic and ecological value. Nevertheless, the characteristics of habitat distribution and the major eco-environmental variables affecting its suitability are poorly understood. In this study, using 65 occurrence records, along with 60 environmental factors, historical, present and future suitable habitats were estimated using MaxEnt modeling, and the important environmental variables affecting the geographical distribution of sect. Tuberculata were analyzed. The results indicate that the size of the its potential habitat area in the current climate was 1.05 × 105 km2, and the highly suitable habitats were located in Guizhou, central-southern Sichuan, the Wuling Mountains in Chongqing, the Panjiang Basin, and southwestern Hunan. The highest probability of presence for it occurs at mean diurnal range (bio2) ≤ 7.83 °C, basic saturation (s_bs) ≤ 53.36%, temperature annual range (bio7) ≤ 27.49 °C, −7.75 °C < mean temperature of driest quarter (bio9) < 7.75 °C, annual UV-B seasonality (uvb2) ≤ 1.31 × 105 W/m2, and mean UV-B of highest month (uvb3) ≤ 5089.61 W/m2. In particular, bio2 is its most important environmental factor. During the historical period, the potential habitat area for sect. Tuberculata was severely fragmented; in contrast, the current period has a more concentrated habitat area. In the three future periods, the potential habitat area will change by varying degrees, depending on the aggressiveness of emissions reductions, and the increase in the potential habitat area was the largest in the SSP2.6 (Low-concentration greenhouse gas emissions) scenario. Although the SSP8.5 (High-concentration greenhouse gas emissions) scenario indicated an expansion in its habitat in the short term, its growth and development would be adversely affected in the long term. In the centroid analysis, the centroid of its potential habitat will shift from lower to higher latitudes in the northwest direction. The findings of our study will aid efforts to uncover its originsand geographic differentiation, conservation of unique germplasms, and forestry development and utilization.