Abstract
Plant cover plays an essential role in the maintenance and balance of the hydrological cycle, performing functions in the control of water availability, which guarantee flow permanence. The use of mathematical models is an alternative to represent the hydrological system and help in the understanding of phenomena involving the variables of the water cycle, in order to anticipate and predict impacts from potential changes in land use. In the present study, the hydrological model SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) was used to analyse the dynamics of flow and water flow in the Pará River Basin, Minas Gerais, Brazil, aiming to evaluate the impact caused by changes in land use in water availability. The adjusted model was assessed by the coefficient of efficiency of Nash-Sutcliffe (between -0.057 to -0.059), indicating high correlation and coefficient of residual mass (0.757 to 0.793) and therefore a satisfactory fit. An increase of about 10% in the basin flow was estimated, as a function of changes in land use, when simulating the removal of the original 'Cerrado' vegetation and of the seasonal semideciduous forest for pasture implementation in 38% of the basin.
Highlights
Plant cover plays an essential role in the maintenance and balance of the hydrological cycle (Gregory et al, 1991), acting on the control of water production and minimum flow permanence, which ensures the stability and balance of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems (Tucci & Clarke, 1997)
The hydrological model SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) is highlighted, since it is capable of projecting trends and effects of climate changes, as well as changes in land use for water production in the basin (Neitsch et al, 2011)
The adjustment of the hydrological model SWAT to the Pará River Basin, evaluated by Coefficients of Residual Mass (CRM) and Nash-Sutcliffe (COE), showed a significant correspondence between simulated and observed values.The difference presented by the coefficient of residual mass (CRM) was almost negligible, indicating a high correlation between the observed and simulated flows by the SWAT model
Summary
Plant cover plays an essential role in the maintenance and balance of the hydrological cycle (Gregory et al, 1991), acting on the control of water production and minimum flow permanence, which ensures the stability and balance of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems (Tucci & Clarke, 1997). The use of land and plant cover has a preponderant role, since water is stored in the basin and subsequently distributed, feeding springs and tributaries of the main channel (Llerena et al, 2007). In this context, mathematical modeling is an alternative for obtaining information about the dynamic behavior in anticipation of events and possible impacts in a watershed, resulting from any changes in land use, among other factors. Hydrological models are important tools to represent systems, their processes, and to help in the understanding of phenomena involving the variables of the hydrological cycle (Tucci, 1998) In this context, hydrological models have received considerable attention, representing technical tools for water resources management. The hydrological model SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) is highlighted, since it is capable of projecting trends and effects of climate changes, as well as changes in land use for water production in the basin (Neitsch et al, 2011)
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