Impact of air‐sea coupling on the simulation of tropical cyclones in the North Indian Ocean using a simple 3‐D ocean model coupled to ARW

Abstract

AbstractIn this work, the impact of air‐sea coupling on tropical cyclone (TC) predictions is studied using a three‐dimensional Price‐Weller‐Pinkel (3DPWP) ocean model coupled to the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting in six tropical storms in the North Indian Ocean, representing different intensities, seasonality, and varied oceanic conditions. A set of numerical experiments are conducted for each cyclone using sea surface temperature (SST) boundary conditions derived from Global Forecast System (GFS) SST, NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Prediction SST, and ocean coupling (3DPWP). Significant differences and improvements are found in the predicted intensity and track in the simulations, in which the cyclones' impact on SST is included. It has been found that while the uncoupled model using GFS SST considerably overestimated the intensity as well as produced large track errors, the ocean coupling substantially improved the track and intensity predictions. The improvements with 3DPWP are because of simulating the ocean‐atmosphere feedback in terms of deepening of ocean mixed layer, reduction in enthalpy fluxes, and storm‐induced SST cooling as seen in observations. The coupled model could simulate the cold wake in SST, asymmetries in the surface winds, enthalpy fluxes, size, and structure of the storm in better agreement with observations than the uncoupled model. The coupled model reduced the track errors by roughly 0.3–39% and intensity errors by 29–47% at 24–96 h predictions by controlling the northward deviation of storms tracks by SST cooling and associated changes in the dynamics. The vorticity changes associated with horizontal advection and stretching terms affect the tracks of the storms in the three simulations.