Abstract
The high-risk of the rapidly spreading COVID-19 virus worldwide created a necessity for developing a diagnostic tool designed to predict economic development, considering the risks of spreading the coronavirus epidemic. In the proposed research, China is selected strategically due to the U.S. "Buy American" trade policy. Also, the European Union presents various trade barriers for countries of Eastern Europe. The risk-versus-economic efficiency study is performed based on Fibonacci law utilizing trade-dynamic indicators with incorporating the SIR-model used to predict the dynamics of COVID-19 cases in the region. The research was performed based on data collected for the period of March-July 2020. As a result, a scientific model to predict the dynamics of trade volume between China and selected Eastern European countries is developed. The results obtained have a practical application and can be used for government institutions and economic agencies to determine their nation's short- and long-term international trade strategy.
Highlights
China is the biggest trade partner of Eastern European countries, and the volume of trade operations is rising every year
The research algorithm involves identifying factors that are decisive in the conditions of the spread of COVID-19, assessing the strength and nature of their influence, and forecasting the dynamics of trade between China and listed Eastern European countries in the context of a pandemic
It allowed us to make a prospective assessment toward developing foreign trade turnover between China and the countries of Eastern Europe as a strategic trading partnership, taking into account the risk of uncertainty
Summary
China is the biggest trade partner of Eastern European countries, and the volume of trade operations is rising every year. Russia considers China as its number one strategic trade partner as "Russia and China are reluctant partners and are together only because they have specific trade needs from each other at this moment in history" The spreading of the general pandemic COVID-19 has caused significant changes in the volume and structure of trade between countries. Countries have been forced to implement remedies against the threats of the virus spreading domestically. This situation primarily limits seaports' operations, railways, and complicates foreign trade operations in the world and between China and the countries of Eastern Europe, (OECD, 2020a). Impact Assessment of the COVID-19 on trade
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