Abstract

* Abbreviations: CPS — : child protective services PRM — : predictive risk modeling Vaithianathan et al’s1 “Injury and Mortality Among Children Identified as at High Risk of Maltreatment” showcases the promise of predictive risk modeling (PRM). As part of the emerging literature revealing the strong predictive utility of PRM relative to child maltreatment and health, Vaithianathan et al1 help answer a set of existing questions and pose an entirely new set of perhaps more difficult questions. PRM involves evaluating a large number of variables to create risk scores for a given outcome in a given population. Previous work in New Zealand revealed that PRMs developed from a full national birth cohort predicting subsequent substantiated child protective services (CPS) referrals had excellent predictive utility (yielding an “area under the curve” approaching 0.90). For example, those 10% of all children categorized as having … Address correspondence to Brett Drake, PhD, Washington University in St Louis, CB 1196, 1 Brookings Dr, St Louis, MO 63130. E-mail: brettd{at}wustl.edu

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