Ideological Voting on the Vinson Court: A Comparison of Original & Final Votes on the Merits

Abstract

In every fully argued and fully decided case before Supreme Court of United States, justices vote on merits on at least two occasions. The first is original vote on merits, which is cast in secret conference within 24 to 96 hours after oral argument; second is final vote on merits, which is cast in course of writing or joining various opinions and is recorded in published reports of these opinions. On both votes, justices decide whether to reverse or to affirm decision of lower court. Ideology is a major factor in decision making on Court, and this study explores whether changes in votes between original and final vote on merits increases or reduces level of ideological voting on Court. J. Woodford Howard argues that intervening variables operating in a collegial court mediate significantly between individual attitude and behavior, which suggests a reduction in influence of judicial attitudes over course of reaching a final decision. Indeed, based on an examination of private papers of several justices in 1940s, Howard concludes that the data point to a deflation of ideological component in decision-making of this period.2 One should note that Howard's conclusion refers both to changes in votes and to changes in content of majority opinions, and it is unclear whether it is relevant to vote changes alone. But even if his conclusion pertains to vote changes alone, it cannot be accepted without further investigation because it is based on impressionistic, instead of systematic, research.