Abstract
In the past 30 years, there has been a significant increase in drought events in Europe. It is expected that climate change will make droughts more frequent and intense. This situation is particularly concerning for areas with no drought management culture. This study focuses on North East Lower Saxony (NELS), an important agricultural region in northern Germany. We implement a novel approach to Group Model Building to assess the preparedness of NELS to deal with climate change and droughts. Our novel approach includes the creation of a preliminary model based on individual interviews and a triangulation of information after the workshop. We conclude that stakeholders are aware of climate change, but insufficient attention is given to adaptive solutions mainly because they require high initial investments. Given its existing political infrastructure, the region has the potential to adjust. With efficient government bodies are already in place, beneficial updates could be made to established water withdrawal regulations.
Highlights
Of all climate events, droughts affect the most people around the world [1]
To improve objectivity and comprehensiveness, we propose modifying the Group Model Building (GMB) suggested by Vennix (1996) [23] to include a preliminary model based on the common perception of the participants and a triangulation process
We present the three models generated during this study plus the results of the analysis made based on our three objectives: (1) Determine how stakeholders perceive climate change and drought
Summary
Droughts affect the most people around the world [1]. In the past 30 years, there has been an increase in drought events in Europe [2]. Prolonged summer heatwaves and droughts are associated with substantial financial, human, and environmental losses. The losses incurred from the 2018 drought were estimated to be EUR. 3.3 billion, making it the costliest single-year weather event in Europe [3]. In Austria, for example, the agricultural losses caused by drought are higher than the combined losses due to hail, floods, storms, and frost [4]. Climate change is expected to increase the intensity and frequency of droughts [5], which could further exacerbate this effect [6]. The situation is concerning for Mediterranean and Western Europe [5,7]
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