Abstract
ObjectivesTo explore spatial patterns of crime in a small northern city, and assess the degree of similarity in these patterns across seasons.MethodsCalls for police service frequently associated with crime (theft, break and enter, domestic dispute, assault, and neighbor disputes) were acquired for a five year time span (2015–2019) for the city of North Bay, Ontario, Canada (population 50,396). Exploratory data analysis was conducted using descriptive statistics and a kernel density mapping technique. Andresen’s spatial point pattern test (SPPT) was then used to assess the degree of similarity between the seasonal patterns (spring, summer, autumn, winter) for each call type at two different spatial scales (dissemination area and census tract).ResultsExploratory data analysis of crime concentration at street segments showed that calls are generally more dispersed through the city in the warmer seasons of spring and summer. Kernel density mapping also shows increases in the intensity of hotspots at these times, but little overall change in pattern. The SPPT does find some evidence for seasonal differences in crime pattern across the city as a whole, specifically for thefts and break and enters. These differences are focused on the downtown core, as well as the outlying rural areas of the city.ConclusionsFor the various crime types examined, preliminary analysis, kernel density mapping, and the SPPT found differences in crime pattern consistent with the routine activities theory.
Highlights
Links between weather and the degree of criminal activity that occurs have long been of interest to researchers and policy makers alike (Cohn, 1990; Linning, 2015)
Using five years of calls for service data from the city of North Bay, Ontario, we explore seasonal differences in crime patterns based on crime concentration at the street segment level, kernel density mapping, and Andresen’s Spatial Point Pattern Test (SPPT)
Descriptive statistics and exploratory data analysis Crime concentration The descriptive statistics calculated for the study area, presented in Table 4, indicate that crimes appear to occur at relatively few places in the city of North Bay
Summary
Links between weather and the degree of criminal activity that occurs have long been of interest to researchers and policy makers alike (Cohn, 1990; Linning, 2015). Some authors have studied the influence of seasonality on the rate and location of crime occurrence by integrating weather data with seasonal confounding factors (e.g. de Melo et al, 2018; Linning et al, 2017) These include cultural variables such as holidays and sporting events which tend to recur at the same time each year (Yiannakoulias & Kielasinka, 2016). One is the temperature aggression theory, which posits that heat makes people uncomfortable, and more likely to commit acts of aggression (Brunsdon et al, 2009; Cohn, 1990; Ranson, 2014) This theory is limited, as it only relates to crimes involving aggression, and only considers temperature, though other weather variables may influence crime (Brunsdon et al, 2009; Linning, 2015)
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