Abstract
School dropouts are the problem in education which is the condition of children who do not have the opportunity to complete their education that they couldnt obtain degree certificate due to certain factors. Based on SUSENAS 2013, there is 2.15% of children aged 7-15 years old in West Java who dropped out of school. Three aspects that have great potential on the incidence of school dropouts are characteristic of social, economy, and demography. This study uses logistic regression analysis to determine the effect of school dropouts by the three aspects. The results of logistic regression analysis at 5% significance level indicates that the characteristics of social, economy, and demography that have significant effect on the incidence of school dropouts are the low education of household head, more than four household members, less than the poverty line household expenditure per capita, residence location in urban areas, and boys. The resulting model is sufficientfor estimation with the sensitivity value of 70.20% and the area under the ROC curve of 76.42%.
 Keywords: logistic regression, ROC curve, school children, sensitivity.
Highlights
School dropouts are the problem in education which is the condition of children who do not have the opportunity to complete their education that they couldnt obtain degree certificate due to certain factors
Three aspects that have great potential on the incidence of school dropouts are characteristic of social, economy, and demography
This study uses logistic regression analysis to determine the effect of school dropouts by the three aspects
Summary
Putus sekolah merupakan seseorang yang tidak dapat menyelesaikan pendidikan atau berhenti bersekolah dalam suatu jenjang pendidikan sehingga belum memiliki ijazah atau tanda tamat belajar pada jenjang pendidikan tersebut (KPP dan PA 2013). Berdasarkan uraian UU tersebut, pendidikan dasar sering dikaitkan dengan wajib belajar sembilan tahun yang merupakan hak setiap warga negara usia 7 hingga 15 tahun yang memiliki peran penting untuk generasi penerus bangsa. Berdasarkan laporan UNICEF tahun 2012 sekitar 2.3 juta anak Indonesia usia 7 hingga 15 tahun tidak bersekolah dan 42% anak putus sekolah tersebar di tiga provinsi besar yaitu Jawa Timur, Jawa Tengah, dan Jawa Barat. Penelitian ini akan mengambil tiga aspek yang diduga mempengaruhi kejadian anak putus sekolah yaitu aspek sosial, ekonomi, dan demografi dengan menggunakan analisis regresi logistik. Regresi logistik adalah salah satu alat analisis dalam statistika yang merupakan bentuk khusus dari analisis regresi dengan peubah respon bersifat kategorik yaitu putus sekolah dan tidak putus sekolah, sedangkan peubah-peubah penjelas bersifat kontinu maupun kategorik (Agresti 2002)
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