Abstract
The article examines the issues of assessing the sustainability of road safety improvement process in Russian cities with a population of more than 1 million people. In 2015...2018 a sharp decrease in the overall level of road traffic accidents in the Russian Federation was recorded. However, in different regions and cities of the country this positive process runs extremely heterogeneously, with various speeds and different levels of qualitative changes in the field of road safety. The T-Wilcoxon criterion is an instrument, used in analyzing accident rate statistics, which can help in the argumentation of the opinion on the sustainability of this process or, vice versa, on the chaotic state and weak expression. On the example of accident rate statistics in Russian cities with a population of more than 1 million people, the article proves that improvement of road safety can be characterized as sustainable.
Highlights
1 Introduction A significant decrease [1] in the number of road accidents, dead and injured people in road accidents in the last four years (2018/2015) in Russia is the cause for the formulation of general conclusion about the success of road safety Federal Program realization
Hypothesis Н1 classically [3, 5] formulated as «Intensity of shifts in the typical direction exceeds the intensity of shifts in the atypical direction», i.e. the change in the data distribution on the characteristics of the accident rate of 2018, relative to similar data distribution of 2015, did not occur accidentally - some specific factors had an impact on this data shift, e.g. organizational and managerial efforts that were invested in the solution of increasing road safety problem
When using the methods of mathematical statistics, level of statistical significance p-level, in other words, «probability that we found differences as significant, but they are accidental», plays an important role [8]
Summary
A significant decrease [1] in the number of road accidents, dead and injured people in road accidents in the last four years (2018/2015) in Russia is the cause for the formulation of general conclusion about the success of road safety Federal Program realization. Whether everywhere the process of road safety improvement can be considered as qualitative? How stable is this positive trend? Whether everywhere the process of road safety improvement can be considered as qualitative? To answer these questions, we will use the T-Wilcoxon criterion
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