Identification of micro-level malaria hotspots and its implications for achieving malaria elimination target in a remote district of India.

A time series of large-scale aerial photographs of a 25 ha section of the Jasper Ridge Biological Preserve (JRBP) in California was analysed for the quantification of long-term changes in the orthogonally projected crown areas of a sample of mature canopy trees growing in closed woodland and open grassland habitats. Crown area changes were computed on the basis of pairwise image comparisons for the years 1974, 1980, 1988, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1993 and 1995. Single frame image correction methods were assessed by comparing a high-resolution physical-system based method of photogrammetric orthorectification with a low-resolution method of georeferencing that involved the use of ground control points (GCPs) for the derivation of best-fit statistical transformations. The same crown digitization procedure was used for both methods, and a statistically significant difference was not found between the high-resolution and low-resolution measured crown areas. Crown area changes were not correlated with differences in sun position at the time of aerial photo acquisition nor with differences in the off-nadir distances of each crown in the images being compared. The upper limit of digitizing error was 3.5% based on the mean coefficient of variation plus one standard deviation computed from repeat digitization measures of each crown. Crown area changes exceeding 3.5%in the pairwise image comparisons were attributed to actual crown growth or crown reduction. Expressed as a percentage of the original crown area, the mean annual rate of change for each pairwise sample period was 4.9% yr-1. In absolute terms, the mean annual rate of crown area change over the 21-year period 1974-1995 was 1.4m2 yr-1. The long-term mean annual crown growth rate of the clustered woodland trees (1.3m2yr-1) was not significantly different from the isolated grassland trees (1.5m2 yr-1). The mean annual rates of change for the periods 1974-1980, 1980-1989 and 1991-1993 were similar to the long-term average. Unusually low mean growth rates characterized the drought years of 1989-1990 and 1990-1991, while the relatively wet period of 1993-1995 exhibited the most dramatic increase in crown area at a mean rate of 3.0m2yr-1.

Natural Course of Ocular Function in Pigmented Paravenous Retinochoroidal Atrophy

Practice effects (PEs) defined as an improvement of performance in cognition due to repeated assessments between sessions are well known in unimpaired individuals, while less is known about impaired cognition and particularly in latent brain disease as autosomal-dominant Alzheimer's disease. The purpose was to evaluate the general (across tests/domains) and domain-specific PE calculated as the annual rate of change (ARC) in relation to years to the estimated disease onset (YECO) and in four groups of AD: asymptomatic mutation carriers (aAD, n = 19), prodromal, i.e., symptomatic mutation carriers, criteria for AD diagnosis not fulfilled (pAD, n = 4) and mutation carriers diagnosed with AD (dAD, n = 6) as well as mutation non-carriers from the AD families serving as a healthy comparison group (HC, n = 35). Cognition was assessed at baseline and follow-up about 3 years later by 12 tests covering six domains. The aAD and HC groups were comparable at baseline in demographic characteristics (age, gender, and education), when they were in their early forties, while the pAD and dAD groups were older and cognitively impaired. The results on mean ARC for the four groups were significantly different, small, positive, and age-insensitive in the HC group, while ARC was negative and declined with time/disease advancement in AD. The differences between HC and aAD groups in mean ARC and domain-specific ARC were not significant, indicating a subtle PE in aAD in the early preclinical stage of AD. In the symptomatic stages of AD, there was no PE probably due to cognitive disease-related progression. PEs were the largest in the verbal domain in both the HC and aAD groups, indicating a relationship with cognitive vulnerability. The group-related difference in mean ARC was predominant in timekeeping tests. To conclude, the practice effect in over 3 years was suggested to be linked to procedural learning and memory.

Standardizing the calculation of the annual rate of deforestation

To examine changes in the positive infectious syphilis test rate among women and heterosexual men in major Australian cities, and rate differences by social, biomedical, and behavioural determinants of health. Analysis of data extracted from de-identified patient records from 34 sexual health clinics participating in the Australian Collaboration for Coordinated Enhanced Sentinel Surveillance of Sexually Transmissible Infections and Blood Borne Viruses (ACCESS). First tests during calendar year for women and heterosexual men aged 15 years or more in major cities who attended ACCESS sexual health clinics during 2011-2019. Positive infectious syphilis test rate; change in annual positive test rate. 180 of 52 221 tested women (0.34%) and 239 of 36 341 heterosexual men (0.66%) were diagnosed with infectious syphilis. The positive test rate for women was 1.8 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.9-3.2) per 1000 tests in 2011, 3.0 (95% CI, 2.0-4.2) per 1000 tests in 2019 (change per year: rate ratio [RR], 1.12; 95% CI, 1.01-1.25); for heterosexual men it was 6.1 (95% CI, 3.8-9.2) per 1000 tests in 2011 and 7.6 (95% CI, 5.6-10) per 1000 tests in 2019 (RR, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.03-1.17). In multivariable analyses, the positive test rate was higher for women (adjusted RR [aRR], 1.85; 95% CI, 1.34-2.55) and heterosexual men (aRR, 2.39; 95% CI, 1.53-3.74) in areas of greatest socio-economic disadvantage than for those in areas of least socio-economic disadvantage. It was also higher for Indigenous women (aRR, 2.39; 95% CI, 1.22-4.70) and for women who reported recent injection drug use (aRR, 4.87; 95% CI, 2.18-10.9) than for other women; it was lower for bisexual than heterosexual women (aRR, 0.48; 95% CI, 0.29-0.81) and for women who reported recent sex work (aRR, 0.35; 95% CI, 0.29-0.44). The positive test rate was higher for heterosexual men aged 40-49 years (aRR, 2.11; 95% CI, 1.42-3.12) or more than 50 years (aRR, 2.36; 95% CI, 1.53-3.65) than for those aged 15-29 years. The positive test rate among both urban women and heterosexual men tested was higher in 2019 than in 2011. People who attend reproductive health or alcohol and drug services should be routinely screened for syphilis.

BackgroundReports on the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the quality of malaria care and burden in sub Saharan Africa have provided a mixed picture to date. The impact of the 2nd (Delta) and 3rd (Omicron) COVID-19 waves on outpatient malaria indicators and case management practices was assessed at three public health facilities with varying malaria transmission intensities in Uganda.MethodsIndividual level data from all patients presenting to the out-patient departments (OPD) of the three facilities (Kasambya, Walukuba and Lumino) between January 2019 and February 2022 were included in the analysis. Outcomes of interest included total number of outpatient (OPD) visits, proportion of patients suspected to have malaria, proportion of suspected malaria cases tested with a malaria diagnostic test, test positivity rates (TPR) and proportion of malaria cases prescribed artemether-lumefantrine (AL). Using the pre-COVID-19 trends between January 2019 and February 2020, interrupted time series analysis was used to predict the expected trends for these study outcomes during the 2nd wave (May 2021–August 2021) and 3rd wave (November 2021–February 2022). The observed trends of the study outcomes were compared with the expected trends.ResultsThere were no significant differences between the observed versus expected overall outpatient visits in the 2nd wave, however, a significant decline in OPD attendance was observed during the 3rd wave (15,101 vs 31,154; incidence rate ratio (IRR) = 0.48 [0.41–0.56]). No significant differences in the overall observed versus expected proportions of suspected malaria cases and test positivity rates in both COVID waves. However, a significant decrease in the overall proportion of suspected malaria cases tested with a malaria diagnostic test was observed during the 3rd wave (99.86% vs 99.99%; relative percent ratio [RPR] = 0.99 [0.99–0.99]). Finally, a significant decline in the overall proportion of malaria cases prescribed AL was observed during the 2nd wave (94.99% vs 99.85%; RPR = 0.95 [0.92–0.98]) but not the 3rd wave.ConclusionSignificant declines in OPD attendance and suspected malaria cases tested with malaria diagnostic test were observed during the 3rd COVID-19 wave, while AL prescription significantly reduced during the 2nd COVID-19 wave. These findings add to the body of knowledge highlighting the adverse impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the malaria which could explain the increase in the malaria burden observed during this period.

Malaria remains one of the essential public health problems in Indonesia. The year 2015 was originally set as the elimination target in Java Island, but there are still several regencies on Java reporting malaria cases. Spatial technology helps determine local variations in malaria transmission, control risk areas and assess the outcome of interventions. Information on distribution patterns of malaria at the sub-district level, presented as spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal data, is vital in planning control interventions. Information on malaria transmission at the sub-district level in three regencies in Java (Banyumas, Kebumen, and Purbalingga) was collected from the Agency for Regional Development (Bappeda), the Population and Civil Registration Agency (Disdukcapil) and Statistics Indonesia (BPS). Global spatial autocorrelation and space-time clustering was investigated together with purely spatial and purely temporal analyses using geographical information systems (GIS) by ArcGis 10.2 and SaTScan 8.0 to detect areas at high risk of malaria. Our results show that malaria was spatially clustered in the study area in central Java, in particular in the Banyumas and Purbalingga regencies. The temporal analysis revealed that malaria clusters predominantly appeared in the period January-April. The results of the spatiotemporal analysis showed that there was one most likely malaria cluster and three secondary clusters in southern central Java. The most likely cluster was located in Purbalingga Regency covering one sub-district and remaining from the beginning of 2016 to the end of 2018. The approach used can assist the setting of resource priorities to control and eliminate malaria.

To document the changes in BMI and the prevalence of overweight and obesity in young women living in poverty in a semi-urban community in Mexico. Women who had previously participated in a longitudinal research study (1997-2000) were re-assessed in 2005. Anthropometric measurements were obtained using standard procedures, and socio-demographic questionnaires were administered. Total and annual rate of change in BMI and change in the prevalence of overweight and obesity (BMI > or = 25.0 and > or =30.0) were estimated. Mean age in 2005 was 30.0 +/- 5.7 years (n = 683) and time between recruitment and follow-up was 6.4 +/- 1.0 years. Mean change in BMI was +3.6 +/- 2.7 (range -8.2 to +14.6). In 2005, 500 (73.2%) women were overweight, up from 263 (38.5%) in the original assessment. The prevalence of obesity tripled over the follow-up period (from 9.8% to 30.3%). The mean annual rate of change in BMI was +0.6 (+/-0.4). After adjustment for age and parity at baseline, an annual rate of change of BMI above the sample median (>0.5) was associated with lower levels of formal education. The annual increase in the prevalence of overweight and obesity in this sample is double that which was reported at a national level in Mexico. An understanding of the determinants of this rapid increase among the women living in poverty in Mexico is urgently needed.

Longitudinal studies of subjects with autopsy-proven Alzheimer's disease in one skilled nursing home and of clinically diagnosed cases (NINCDS/ADRDA criteria) in three community cohorts are compared with regard to the annual rate of change in the error score of the Blessed information-memory-concentration test (IMC) in which the maximum number of errors possible is 33. The four cohorts differed significantly from each other in regard to age, education, sex, and the degree of dementia as measured by the initial IMC score. Subjects spanned the age range of 52 to 96 years and had 2 to 20 years of education. The rate of change in error score per year was similar whether the initial error score was 0 to 7, 8 to 15, or 16 to 23; however, the rate was reduced when the initial error score was 24 or above, due to a ceiling effect of the test. Among subjects with initial IMC scores less than 24, the annual rate of change varied considerably. However, the mean annual rate of change, 4.4 errors (SD +/- 3.6, SEM +/- 0.3) per year, was independent of residence in a nursing home, location of the study site, and of the patient's sex or education. Of particular importance was the finding that the rate of change in mental test score was independent of age. It can be concluded that the rate of cognitive deterioration in patients with Alzheimer's disease is quite variable among individuals and is independent of the patient's age and whether the patient resides in the community or in a nursing home.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Review of the historical growth in annual vaccination coverage across countries and regions can better inform decision makers' development of future goals and strategies to improve routine vaccination services. Using the World Health Organization (WHO) and the United Nations Children's Fund estimates of annual national third dose of diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis-containing vaccine (DTP3) and third dose of polio vaccine (POL3) coverage for 1980-2009, we calculated the mean absolute annual rate of change in national DTP3 coverage among all countries (globally) and among countries within each WHO region, as well as the number of years taken by each region to reach specific regional coverage levels. Last, we assessed differences in mean absolute annual rate of change in DTP3 coverage, stratified by baseline level of DTP3 coverage. During the 1980s, global DTP3 coverage increased a mean of 5.3 percentage points/year. Annual rate of change decreased to 0.5 percentage points/year in the 1990s and then increased to 0.9 percentage points/year during the 2000s. Mean annual rate of change in coverage across all countries was highest (9.2 percentage points) when national coverage levels were 26%-30% and lowest (-0.9 percentage points) when national coverage levels were 96%-100%. Regional differences existed as both WHO South-East Asia Region and WHO African Region countries experienced mean negative DTP3 coverage growth at lower coverage levels (81%-85%) than other regions. The regions that have achieved 95% DTP3 coverage (Americas, Western Pacific, and European) took 25-29 years to reach that level from a level of 50% DTP3 coverage. POL3 coverage change trends were similar to described DTP3 coverage change trends. Mean national coverage growth patterns across all regions are nonlinear as coverage levels increase. Saturation points of mean 0 percentage-point growth in annual coverage varies by region and require further investigation. The achievement of >90% routine coverage is observed to take decades, which has implications for disease eradication and elimination initiatives.

The Spinal Muscular Atrophy Functional Composite (SMA-FC) combines scores from the Hammersmith Functional Motor Scale Expanded (HFMSE), Upper Limb Module (ULM), and Six-Minute Walk Test (6MWT) into a single score and removes the floor and ceiling effects of the HFMSE. Our objective was to evaluate a revised version of the SMA-FC (SMA-FCR) by including the Revised ULM (RULM) in untreated and nusinersen-treated SMA. We included participants with HFMSE, RULM, and 6MWT data at the same visit. The SMA-FCR represented the average of the 3 test scores, each expressed as the percentage of the maximum possible score (HFMSE and RULM) or the percent of predicted normative performance (6MWT). Mean annual rates of change were calculated in participants who had SMA-FCR data at 2 or more visits while untreated and/or while treated. There were 580 participants (49.6% female) with a mean (SD) age of 19.2 (15.5) years (range 1.3-70.6 years). The median (interquartile range) SMA-FCR scores were 3.6 (0.0-8.1) for nonsitters, 22.3 (16.3-31.2) for sitters, and 75.1 (63.7-86.6) for walkers. The SMA-FCR score reduced the ceiling effect seen with the RULM in walkers and the floor effect seen with the HFMSE in nonsitters. The mean annual rate of change in the SMA-FCR was -0.62 (95% CI -1.15 to -0.08, p = 0.02) in untreated participants and 0.15 (95% CI -0.12 to 0.42, p = 0.28) in treated participants (difference = 0.77, 95% CI 0.19-1.34, p = 0.009). The mean annual rate of change in the HFMSE was -0.19 (95% CI -0.63 to 0.25, p = 0.40) in untreated participants and -0.21 (95% CI -0.43 to 0.01, p = 0.06) in treated participants (difference = -0.02, 95% CI -0.49 to 0.46, p = 0.94). The SMA-FCR broadens the spectrum of abilities captured in SMA. Analyses of the treated-untreated differences in mean annual rate of change suggest that the SMA-FCR may be more sensitive to change than the HFMSE. The use of the SMA-FCR in clinical trials might allow for study designs with broader eligibility criteria including weaker individuals who score minimally on the HFMSE and stronger individuals who score maximally on the RULM.

BackgroundPrevious studies on associations of alcohol use with memory decline showed inconclusive results. We examined these associations using longitudinal data from the Guangzhou Biobank Cohort Study (GBCS) and explored whether these associations varied by sex and age group.MethodsMemory function was assessed by delayed 10-word recall test (DWRT) and immediate 10-word recall test (IWRT) at both baseline (2003–2008) and follow-up (2008–2012) examinations, expressed as the mean annual change and mean annual rate of change in scores. Memory cognitive impairment was defined by DWRT scores of less than 4. Multivariable linear regression models and restricted cubic spline were used for data analysis.ResultsOf 14,827 participants without memory cognitive impairment at baseline, 90.2% were never or occasional drinkers, 5% moderate drinkers, 1.5% excessive drinkers, and 3.3% former drinkers. The mean (standard deviation) age was 60.6 (6.6) years old. During an average of 4.1 years follow-up, 1000 (6.7%) participants developed memory cognitive impairment. After adjusting for confounders, compared with never or occasional drinkers, moderate and excessive drinkers had significant decline in DWRT scores (β, 95% confidence interval (CI) = -0.04 (-0.08 to -0.01), and − 0.07 (-0.14 to 0.01), respectively), and IWRT scores (β, 95% CI = -0.10 (-0.19 to -0.01), and − 0.15 (-0.30 to 0.01), respectively) annually. With respect to the mean annual rate of change, moderate and excessive drinkers also showed greater decline in DWRT scores (β, 95% CI = -1.02% (-1.87% to -0.16%), and − 1.64% (-3.14% to -0.14%), respectively). The associations did not vary by sex and age group (all P values for interaction ≥ 0.10).ConclusionCompared to never or occasional alcohol use, moderate and excessive alcohol users had greater memory decline and the associations did not vary by sex and age group.

Malaria incidence in Perak, Malaysia has generally declined, but there remain regions of high incidence. The spatio-temporal distribution pattern of malaria in Perak was studied using Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and spatial statistical tools. Malaria data cases at the subdistrict level in Perak from 2007 to 2011 were analysed to determine the spatial and temporal distribution patterns of malaria incidence. Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and spatial statistical tools were used to identify spatial correlation in the data and malaria hot-spots. Spatial correlation was tested by using an autocorrelation method called Moran’s I. Hot spot analysis was done using Getis-Ord G* statistic technique. Malaria incidence rates were categorized into 3 classes to map the spatial distribution. Malaria cases in Perak were geo-spatially clustered. Most of the hot spots locations were in Kenering, Ulu Kinta, Gerik and Kampar sub-districts. The prevalence of malaria among foreigners was noticeably higher than Malaysians. Improved surveillance of foreign workers can prevent outbreaks and identify high risk areas. This study implies that geographic-based mapping and information system are needed for an effective malaria control.

To discuss epidemiological aspects of imported malaria and the potential impact of imported malaria cases reported in Sri Lanka 2008-2011 in terms of a possible resurgence of the disease. The national malaria database was used to assess details regarding country where the infection was possibly acquired, species of Plasmodium, number of days lapsed between disembarkation in Sri Lanka and diagnosis, compliance with national treatment guidelines including percentage of patients followed up as per the national guidelines. After the strengthening of malaria surveillance, during the 4-year period, 152 imported malaria cases were recorded: an increase of 176% in the number of cases. Most of the imported malaria infections were acquired by Sri Lankan Nationals mainly from South Asia, especially India. Plasmodium vivax accounted for 64% of the infections. Approximately 50% of the cases were diagnosed in the Western Province. The average period from disembarkation in Sri Lanka to malaria diagnosis was 3.6days. Patients were managed and treated according to the national guidelines. 82% of the patients were followed up for 28days to ensure parasite clearance. There is a possible increasing risk of re-introduction of malaria to the country from imported cases. Enhanced surveillance activities and the increase in international travel have contributed to an increase in recorded case numbers. There is a need to further strengthen surveillance, especially for monitoring and timely addressing of imported malaria, if the country is to prevent the re-establishment of transmission within. The importance of having an efficient response mechanism to deal with imported malaria is also highlighted.

Differences in rate of functional decline across three dementia types