Identification of High Fire Potential and High-Use Spatial Intersections at a National Forest to Understand Recreation Displacement Related to Wildfire Events

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U.S. National Forest Service units in California are increasingly vulnerable to wildfires that could result in people being displaced during and after these events. The purpose of our study was to identify characteristics of national forest users potentially displaced due to recreation site closures from a wildfire event. This information is useful for managers to inform public outreach strategies. Our study focused on California’s Los Padres National Forest, which is a popular recreation area and has five resident communities. First, we produced a burn probability map using the FlamMap fire behavior modeling platform to identify where potential wildfires might occur. Second, we analyzed Spectus mobile device data to determine areas that receive high use and to understand forest use differences during and after a potential wildfire event. This information was mapped and overlaid with the findings from the first phase, which resulted in the identification of spatial intersections of areas with high burn probability and high use. Next, these areas were analyzed for recreation opportunities and then input into an automated Spectus dashboard that analyzes mobile device data to understand demographic characteristics for those who could potentially be displaced. This information is useful for assisting forest managers with the formulation of effective public outreach that targets high volumes of people where wildfire-related displacement is most likely and where messaging campaigns might have the greatest audience.