Abstract
Madagascar is a global biodiversity hotspot of conservation concern. The decline of natural forest habitats due to shifting cultivation has been one of the major land use changes during the last decades. We analyzed satellite images between 1990 and 2018 from northeastern Madagascar to evaluate the contribution of nine variables (e.g., topographic, demographic, forest protection) to explain past forest loss, predict future deforestation probabilities to define important areas that require further conservation attention. Forest cover declined by 21% since 1990 and the once continuous rain forest belt of the region is disrupted twice, in the center and at the southern limit of the study region. Status of forest protection and proximity to the forest edge were identified as most important predictors, but all variables contributed to explaining the observed pattern of deforestation. At least 20% of the 3136 villages in the area were established since 1990 at the expense of previously forested areas. This housing sprawl was mainly driven by accessibility, decreasing landscape connectivity. To conserve the unique biodiversity of the region, the expansion of protected forests and active reforestation measures are urgently needed. Sustainable land use planning and forest management integrating the needs of local land users and conservation priorities should be promoted. We see the highest potential for external stakeholders (e.g., national NGOs) to implement targeted interventions embedded in community-based approaches. Our land cover maps and predictive modeling highlight crucial areas that could act as stepping stone habitats for dispersing or retreating species and therefore important locations to intensify conservation measures.
Highlights
The change in land cover and its impacts on biodiversity are present all over the globe (Foley et al 2005; Newbold et al 2015)
This land use system is predicted to be on the decline globally (Heinimann et al 2017), it is still widespread in the biodiversity hotspot of Madagascar (Myers et al 2000; UNDP 2016; Curtis et al 2018)
The forest cover of the entire study area declined from 12,039 km2 (54.9%) in the early 1990s to 7501 km2 (34.2%) in 2018 totaling to a loss of 4537 km2
Summary
The change in land cover and its impacts on biodiversity are present all over the globe (Foley et al 2005; Newbold et al 2015). Land use patterns in many low-income countries of Sub-Saharan Africa are characterized by shifting cultivation to sustain rural livelihoods (Curtis et al 2018) This land use system is predicted to be on the decline globally (Heinimann et al 2017), it is still widespread in the biodiversity hotspot of Madagascar (Myers et al 2000; UNDP 2016; Curtis et al 2018). Shifting cultivation is still widespread (Zähringer et al 2015; Llopis et al 2019) and due to its high cultural value (e.g., Desbureaux and Brimont 2015) and the fact, that it represents a major strategy for local households to cope with external threats like price volatility of cash crops or environmental events like cyclones (Harvey et al 2014; Hänke et al 2018; Llopis et al 2019)
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
