Abstract
Abstract—The identification and forecasting of reverse salients of emerging technology is becoming harder because technology is getting complex. This study presents a systematic method of identifying and forecasting reverse salients. Experts evaluation, bibliometric analysis and forecasting techniques are integrated to specify reverse salients, to figure out the gap between current and market required performance, and to forecast when a reverse salient is resolved. This study will contribute to practitioners with regard to R&D investment of private sectors and governments, planning and technology commercialization. A carbon nanotube biosensor technology was analyzed as an example.
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