“I Definitely Would Not Be Doing Science…”, or Features of the Status Transmission in Scientific Dynasties in Russia

The study analyses how the educational pathways of ninth graders are constructed by practices of adolescents and their parents in families with different educational statuses. The importance of contextualising the educational transition as it occurs in daily life and socially structured family cultures is emphasised. The research question is: How is the choice of educational route of ninth graders constructed by the practices of the adolescents and the parents in vocational and academic families? What does characterise different pathways and what kinds of distinctions, differences and contrasts of transition practices do exist between them? The interview sample consisted of 16 Finnish families. The interviews were carried out in three forms: a family discussion interview, a thematic interview of the adolescents, and a life-history interview of the parents. The results introduce the main characteristics and distinctions of transition practices of the vocational and academic families.

Mitochondrial medicine is one of the few areas of genetic disease where germ-line transfer is being actively pursued as a treatment option. All of the germ-line transfer methods currently under development involve some carry-over of the maternal mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) heteroplasmy, potentially delivering the pathogenic mutation to the offspring. Rapid changes in mtDNA heteroplasmy have been observed within a single generation, and so any ‘leakage’ of mutant mtDNA could lead to mtDNA disease in future generations, compromising the reproductive health of the first generation, and leading to repeated interventions in subsequent generations. To determine whether this is a real concern, we developed a model of mtDNA heteroplasmy inheritance by studying 87 mother–child pairs, and predicted the likely outcome of different levels of ‘mutant mtDNA leakage’ on subsequent maternal generations. This showed that, for a clinical threshold of 60%, reducing the proportion of mutant mtDNA to <5% dramatically reduces the chance of disease recurrence in subsequent generations, but transmitting >5% mutant mtDNA was associated with a significant chance of disease recurrence. Mutations with a lower clinical threshold were associated with a higher risk of recurrence. Our findings provide reassurance that, at least from an mtDNA perspective, methods currently under development have the potential to effectively eradicate pathogenic mtDNA mutations from subsequent generations.

The spatial dimension of coal phase-out: Exploring economic transformation and city pathways in Poland

Studies of the press for the rural populations in the 19th and early 20th centuries form the basis for an analysis of changes in the publishing market and readers since the beginning of the print media up to political and economic transformation. This paper explores origins of publishing services for the rural population in the territories under Prussian occupation. Comparison of the titles with regard to the content, audiences and editorial teams in the first periodicals and popular press facilitated the determination of the functions of the farming press in the above period and region. An important factor to be recognised is the organisation of publishing companies and their influence on the audiences, despite press censorship. In the part of Poland under Prussian occupation the first large publishers had been established, publishing both newspapers and books. The activity of the press for rural audiences from the 19th century up to World War I varied. Educational, social, and religious content dominated in these editions. The fight to preserve Polishness in all three annexations, even though it varied depending on the government administration, focused on the dissemination of knowledge of Polish history and learning the native language.

Time Trends of Ulcer Mortality in Europe

In the face of changes in the global economic environment and new challenges at home and abroad, the transformation of China's economic growth (EG) model is particularly critical. By combing and analyzing China's economic development model over the past decades in detail, and combining quantitative and qualitative research methods, this study aims to explore the internal and external challenges and opportunities facing the economy in the process of shifting from an investment- and export-driven to an innovation- and consumption-driven economy. This paper specifically employs historical data analysis, case studies and policy assessment models to analyze economic policies and market responses at different growth stages, with a view to finding effective paths to sustainable development. At the same time, by comparing the transition experience of international advanced economies, this paper puts forward specific suggestions and strategies for China's economic transition. The growth rate of industrial output is also rising, from 7.2% in 2018 to an estimated 9.5% in 2027, which indicates that China's industrial output has maintained good growth momentum amidst energy conservation and emission reduction. The value of this study is not only to provide policymakers with scientific decision-making support to help better understand and grasp the key factors in economic transformation, but also to provide academics with in-depth case studies on economic transformation in large developing countries, enriching relevant theoretical and practical research.

Real-time epidemic forecasting using mathematical and computational models of infectious disease transmission is increasingly used to provide scenario analysis and forecasts to help public health agencies and the society to react and respond to emergent infectious disease outbreaks, such as the most recent COVID-19 pandemic. In my thesis, I utilized the Global Epidemic and Mobility (GLEAM) model which combines the real-world data on human mixing patterns and short-range and long-range human mobility networks with elaborate stochastic models of disease transmission to analyze the spatiotemporal spreading and magnitude of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States and proposed to use the energy score to evaluate the performance of probabilistic forecasts that are provided in the format of quantiles or intervals and identify the most plausible scenario and the best performance model for each round of the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub project. In Chapter 1, I introduced the important role that epidemic modeling plays during the COVID- 19 pandemic and why a collaborative modeling hub is needed to make reliable and robust projections to help with policy makers on integrating predictive modeling into decision-making process. Besides, I pointed out the different goals for short-term and long-term forecasts. I briefly introduced each of my research projects, and summarized my publications at the end of this chapter. In Chapter 2, I reported my contributions to the development of a data-driven approach to build the age-stratified contact networks by using highly detailed macro (census) and micro (survey) data from publicly available sources on key socio-demographic features (such as: age structure, household composition and members' age gaps, employment rates, school and community structures, etc.) and studied the importance of the heterogeneity of age contact patterns in epidemic modeling. The age-stratified contact networks were then integrated into the a traditional SLIR-like compartment model and the GLEAM model to analyze the evolution of COVID-19 pandemic. In Chapter 3, I proposed an approach by using machine learning algorithms and socio-economic, demographic and meteorological features (such as: population size, distance, purchase power parity, language, currency, etc.) to predict the monthly air passenger flows to reproduce an analogous origin-destination network to the one obtained from the Official Airline Guide (OAG) database. The predicted origin-destination network will be integrated into the GLEAM model to account for the long-range human travel patterns instead of purchasing the data from OAG every year. In Chapter 4, I applied the age-stratified contact networks in an extended SLIR-like model to participate the Multi-Model Outbreak Decision Support (MMODS) project launched by Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study (MIDAS) network in mid-May 2020 to evaluate the effectiveness and study the trade-offs between economic and public health outcomes of four reopening strategies of a generic mid-sized US county in a novel process designed to fully express scientific uncertainty while reducing linguistic uncertainty and cognitive biases. Control of COVID-19 pandemic in such populations will be helpful in decision-making faced by state and local officials. In Chapter 5, I utilized a multi-scale modeling approach that combines two distinct epidemic models that work at different geographical resolutions (the Global Epidemic and Mobility model (GLEAM) and the Local Epidemic and Mobility model in the US (LEAM-US)) to produce long- term probabilistic forecasts based on scenarios aimed at enveloping the future drivers of the COVID- 19 trajectory in the US (Vaccine delivery/administration, SARS-CoV-2 variants prevalence, relaxation of non-pharmaceuticals interventions (NPIs), etc.) at the state and national level in US. Then our results are aggregated in the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub to make ensemble projections and provide guidance for decision-makers, public health experts, and the general public to response the the COVID-19 pandemic. Chapter 6 reports the last project of my PhD research, which focus on the evaluation of performances of probabilistic forecasts from different COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub models and scenarios for all projection rounds by using the energy score: a generalization of the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS). The energy score is defined as a function of data distances and quantifies both the calibration and sharpness of a predictive distributions in a single value. I also proposed a standardization or normalization method to overcome a drawback of the original multivariate energy score that does not make any distinction between the components of the forecast vector. The research work illustrated in my thesis shows how we integrate real-world data into the GLEAM model to produce projections about COVID-19 epidemic in US and help with policy makers on integrating predictive modeling into decision-making processes as well as evaluate probabilistic forecasts by utilizing the energy score. The frameworks and approaches presented here are flexible and extendable such that they can contribute in addressing the future challenges faced by decision makers in developing intervention strategies to fight against other real-world epidemics.--Author's abstract

This paper discusses the differential social structure activities of Dutch Businessmen or VOC, Chinese Clerks and Javanese Shipowners. After the disintegration of the Mataram Kingdom in the 18th century, it had an impact on the economic activities of the middle class of non-European traders on the North Coast of Java. The decline of the maritime trade situation in the 17th century in Southeast Asia in general and in Java in particular was caused by the VOC's military economic monopoly intervention pattern and agrarian kingdoms that did not pay attention to trade shipping. This writing uses a qualitative method with a socio-historical approach. This writing uses Mahan's theory that a strong maritime state must have a strong navy. This can be seen how the VOC maximized the military potential of its navy in dominating trade shipping on the North Coast of Java. Since then Java has been characterized by a rejection of the weak merchant class. The king of Java's choice to pull the economic center to the south also influenced the VOC's trade dominance on Java's North Coast. However, the economic pressure of the VOC slowly led to the emergence of a middle class that came from outside the rule of the royal class. This middle class was filled by Madurese captains alongside Javanese Nahkoda, as well as Chinese merchants, for the latter were considered tenacious despite often having strong trade relations with the Dutch or the VOC marking the discourse on the dynamics of trade and shipping in port cities on the North Coast of Java.

This study focuses on a theme that belongs to history but relies considerably on the tools of sociology in general and the sociology of demography in particular. Indeed, diseases and epidemics in Morocco in the 19th century significantly affected the social aspects and, as a result, caused considerable demographic haemorrhages and tribal migrations. It also placed the power in place in the face of challenges that threatened its symbolic, religious and political status, and as a result, the economic field underwent several transformations. In other words, Morocco found itself faced with a natural force and a turbulent and tense internal situation, so the sultans of Morocco were forced to intervene to restore stability in the light of a fragile social situation and the emergence of opposition movements stemming from tribes and brotherhoods (Zawaya), in which loyalties change according to circumstances and contexts. The study of diseases and epidemics in Morocco in the 19th century will help us to understand the state of social, economic, and political formation and to follow and understand its transformations. Therefore, the object of our work calls for a socio-historical approach making it possible to follow the transformations, understand their nature, and trace trajectories. It will also help to understand what Morocco experienced at the beginning of the 20th century regarding disintegration and imperial penetration, which paved the way for the imposition of protection and its inclusion in later colonized countries.

This article explores on the base of recruit exa minations the development and central social causes of the Prussian literacy process in the 19th century. Our research confirms for Prussia too: the (early) industrialization has not hindered the progress of literacy. On the contrary: espe cially in the regions, which were not integrated in the eco nomic transformation, an atypical stagnation of the literacy level can be observed. Apart from the economic resources in the local context, with its importance for the progress of schooling, the homogeneity of culture and language proves to be another central factor of the literacy process through schooling. Nevertheless: the history of literacy and the hi story of schooling are just not the same. Even in the 19th century literacy and schooling are social phenomenons, which are related but not identical. The difference is par ticularly explainable through the hegemonic activities of rival social groups, which bring out literal ideologies and short-term fluctuations of reading and writing, with consi derable effects for the literacy level of the masses. * Address all communications to Rainer Block, Universit?t GH Essen, FB 2, Univer sit?tsstr. 11, D-45117 Essen. Der Text res?miert einige zentrale Berunde einer Dissertation mit dem Titel 'Der Alphabetisierungsverlauf im Preu?en des 19. Jahrhunderts. Quantitative Exploratio nen aus bildungshistorischer Perspektive*. Die Arbeit ist im Peter Lang Verlag, Reihe Hochschulschriften, Frankfurt a.M. 1995 erschienen.

In the context of global warming and low-carbon economy becoming a new model of economic development, it has become an urgent and major issue that how to achieve the transformation of low carbon economy. As an example of ZaoZhuang, this paper firstly introduced current situation and main emerging problems in economic transformation, then analyzed the general idea of economic transformation of resource-based cities under low-carbon economic condition. In the end, it put forward some suggestions on industrial transformation of ZaoZhuang from the perspective of low-carbon economy.

The chapter examines the issues of supply-side economics development based on an ecosystem approach and in the context of sectoral development. The reasons for the initiation of the national supply economy model as the best model of economic development in the new economic reality are revealed. The issues of supply theory are touched upon, the essence and experience of applying the supply-side economics model are considered. The differences between the classical model of the supply economy and the emerging model of the national supply economy are determined. The conditions of the contour of the new supply-side economy model corresponding to technological and economic transformations in the country are systematized. Attention is focused on the sectoral construct of the supply-side economics model in industry. Proven and proven mechanisms of digital platforms and ecosystems are proposed. The characteristics of the industry platform ecosystem with the selection of digital services corresponding to the tasks of production development as the basis of the supply economy are given.

The mutator system Mu does not follow a typical Mendelian mode of transmission. In outcrosses in which 50 per cent mutator plants are expected, about 90 per cent are observed. Two possible models of transmission are tested. One assumes that Mu has segregation distortion activity such as has been described for the SD locus in Drosophila. The second model assumes an extra-chromosomal factor that is transmitted through the cytoplasm. No evidence of SD activity was found. Mutation frequencies in lines in which Mu was transmitted through the female were not greater than the frequencies observed when Mu was transmitted through the male; as might be expected on some models of cytoplasmic transmission. Thus, cytoplasmic transmission was not established. Other possible models of extrachromosomal inheritance that might not be detected by reciprocal crosses are discussed.

Nearly three decades after the beginning of transition from communism to democracy and open market economy in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), the Washington Consensus in general received the mark as a failure. While the experience from the CEE apart from common results showed considerable variations, the package of reforms is questioned even in the long-term perspective, especially for producing high social costs. Recent mass emigrations from the Western Balkans due to poor economic conditions and from the Middle East, have brought to attention the credibility of exporting or imposing the American type of democracy, and with it, the Washington Consensus as a model of economic transformation and development. But is there an alternative? It already existed even before the systemic changes in CEE began, and can be more preferable even now to the countries that have to undergo a considerable economic transformation. That is the social market economy, which still can be applied in some countries that have lagged behind in transition. This paper explores the perspective of introducing and implementing such a model in the Western Balkan countries, with a reference to the role by the state, taxes, income distribution, and business development.

Purpose. The aim of the article is to study the theoretical and applied aspects of the implementation of the “green economy" as a promising direction for achieving sustainable development in the period of post-war recovery of the economy of our country. Methodology of research. General scientific and specific methods were used to achieve this goal, such as: analysis and synthesis – to establish the need to introduce the “green economy” as a promising direction for achieving sustainable economic development; dialectical method of scientific knowledge – to consider the essence of the concept of the “green economy”; abstract and logical – to develop a mechanism for transforming the domestic economy, taking into account the principles of the green economy. The methodological basis of the study is the scientific works of foreign and domestic scholars on economic transformation in the context of sustainable development goals. Findings. It is established that the concept of the “green economy” should be considered as an optimal economic model of the country's development in the context of globalization and the post-crisis situation, which can become the basis for overcoming the raw material orientation of the national economy and modernizing the entire economic complex in order to increase its sustainability and competitiveness. An important element of building the “green economy” is the gradual increase in the use of alternative energy sources, which requires the creation of the necessary environment for the development of renewable energy. Implementation of “green economy” as a system of holistic economic management requires the search for tools for transition to it within each specific region and is possible only through the consolidation of all efforts and participation of the country's regions. Originality. The peculiarities of institutional transformation of the economy towards the “green” growth in the context of modernity and post-war revival of Ukraine are investigated. A number of tools for implementing the “green economy” as a system of holistic economic management are proposed. Priority directions of "green" growth in Ukraine are substantiated on the basis of the experience of European countries. Practical value. Specific recommendations have been developed for the formation of a type of economy that takes into account the environmental aspects of economic development to the maximum extent possible. The application of the research results will contribute to post-war reconstruction on the basis of a green economy, involving the largest possible number of people and focusing on environmental protection. Key words: “green economy”, economic transformation, energy resources, sustainable development, raw material model.