Abstract
Life-course studies have shown that early-life conditions predict health and socio-economic status in adult life. This study analyzes whether experiencing a traumatic event in childhood, i.e., the Second World War (WW2), affects subjective survival probabilities (SSPs). We rely on a representative sample of European adults who were differentially exposed to WW2 during childhood as a result of their date and place of birth. Results show that exposure to WW2 increases SSPs, with socio-economic and health characteristics not playing a mediating role. War exposure also counterbalances the adverse effects of health impairments on SSPs, but it does not affect health outcomes per se. This fact, jointly with low mortality rates of the cohort under investigation, suggests that selective mortality and post-traumatic stress are not the main channels. Instead, the results support the hypothesis that personal growth and life appreciation emerge after traumatic events, thereby leading to optimistic perceptions of longevity.
Highlights
Subjective probabilities of survival are used in demographic and economic research to predict health outcomes such as actual mortality or longevity (Perozek 2008; Smith et al 2001) as well as individuals’ choices involving uncertainty about the future (Hurd and McGarry 1995 and 2002; Manski 2004; Smith et al 2001; Elder 2013; Wang 2014), e.g., retirement or financial decisions (Van Solinge and Henkens 2009; Post and Hanewald 2013; Nivakoski 2020) and future health investments (Rappange et al 2016).Survival expectations entail individual-specific factors driving intertemporal choices that are unobservable to the policy-maker and unpredictable by relying solely on objective data
A negative effect can be hypothesized if children exposed to the traumatic events of the Second World War (WW2) manifest signs of PTSD in the adulthood
When distinguishing the effect of war exposure depending on the number of war episodes, we find that subjective survival probability increases in the number of WW2 episodes witnessed early in life (Table 3)
Summary
Subjective probabilities of survival are used in demographic and economic research to predict health outcomes such as actual mortality or longevity (Perozek 2008; Smith et al 2001) as well as individuals’ choices involving uncertainty about the future (Hurd and McGarry 1995 and 2002; Manski 2004; Smith et al 2001; Elder 2013; Wang 2014), e.g., retirement or financial decisions (Van Solinge and Henkens 2009; Post and Hanewald 2013; Nivakoski 2020) and future health investments (Rappange et al 2016).Survival expectations entail individual-specific factors (e.g., perceived health status) driving intertemporal choices that are unobservable to the policy-maker and unpredictable by relying solely on objective data. Subjective probabilities of survival are used in demographic and economic research to predict health outcomes such as actual mortality or longevity (Perozek 2008; Smith et al 2001) as well as individuals’ choices involving uncertainty about the future (Hurd and McGarry 1995 and 2002; Manski 2004; Smith et al 2001; Elder 2013; Wang 2014), e.g., retirement or financial decisions (Van Solinge and Henkens 2009; Post and Hanewald 2013; Nivakoski 2020) and future health investments (Rappange et al 2016). Even if individuals perfectly understand that healthy behaviors reduce morbidity and mortality, they can underestimate the benefits of engaging in those behaviors on the basis of their personal judgments about survival. These decisions may have nonnegligible implications for welfare costs regarding, for instance, the sustainability of pensions and healthcare provision
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