Hydrogeological risk and land management: from antiquity to the present day

Disasters related to natural hazards have increased in the last few decades. This increment makes it necessary to develop non-structural risk prevention and mitigation measures to improve people’s safety. An effective non-structural measure that can improve the preparedness of the population is a locally adapted communication campaign that is focused on natural hazards. We have developed a hypothetical communication campaign for a specific area in the north of Italy, in which hydro-geological risk is of considerable importance. The content of the campaign is defined by the combination of the requirements of the law with the results of a survey conducted in the study area. The aim of the survey is to evaluate the level of risk perception among the residents, and their attitudes towards prevention activities. The operative procedure of the campaign is modeled on advertising strategies. The campaign is designed to reach each family, and it is aimed at affecting people’s everyday life through a horizontal communication strategy that involves flyers, billboards, umbrellas and a website. The use of umbrellas as a medium for the campaign is the key. People mostly use umbrellas when it rains. Rain is linked with hydrogeological risk. As the content of the campaign is printed on the umbrellas, each time people use these umbrellas, they remember the campaign. The campaign is integrated into a broader communication program that includes meetings with stakeholders, activities in schools, and public conferences. The final goal is to foster the creation of a shared knowledge about risk in the whole population.

A diverse group of policy makers, land managers and research scientists recently gathered to discuss the future of conservation under the auspices of the Ecological Society of America's Second Emerging Issues Conference, “Developing Ecologically Based Conservation Targets Under Global Change.” The event was held 27 February–1 March 2012 at the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service's National Conservation Training Center in Shepherdstown, West Virginia, and involved two days of presentations, followed by two days of dynamic discussions. Bernd Blossey (Cornell University) and Dov Sax (Brown University), the conference co-chairs, designed the conference to critically analyze current conservation goals and adapt them to meet the demands of global change. The presentations were divided into four symposia. The first symposium, “Protected Areas: Fostering Museums, Way Stations, and Endpoints,” challenged the assumption that species and ecosystems are static entities that can be restored to historical conditions. Richard Hobbs (University of Western Australia) framed the conference by arguing that humans are gardeners rather than guardians of nature. As gardeners, Hobbs contended, we must choose among multiple possible conservation futures and actively manage to achieve the desired outcome. Stephen Jackson (University of Wyoming) continued the discussion on multiple possible futures, using paleoecological evidence to show that communities have been fluctuating for millennia and will continue to change dynamically in response to climate change. Where the first two talks presented the challenges faced by conservation practitioners, the last two talks offered potential solutions for managing systems in flux. Nick Haddad (North Carolina State University) offered corridors as a way to connect protected areas and facilitate dispersal across a fragmented landscape. Steve Gaines (University of California, Santa Barbara) highlighted how networks of marine protected areas are win–win solutions to overfishing, by simultaneously improving both the health of fish populations and catch rates for fishermen. The second symposium, “Preventing Extinctions: Balancing Trade-offs” addressed how interactions among social, ethical, political, and biological factors shaped conservation decisions. Mark Shaffer (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service) detailed the National Fish, Wildlife and Plant Climate Adaptation strategy, which emphasizes extensive coordination among agencies and land managers. We might either improve a system's resistance to change, its resilience to change, or help it transform entirely; the challenge, argued Shaffer, lies in knowing when to transition from one approach to another. Mike Runge (U.S. Geological Survey) suggested that many conservation problems are in fact decision problems rather than scientific problems. He described a structured decision-making approach to endangered species management, which showed how decision analysis and the integration of cultural values improved management outcomes. Ron Swaisgood (San Diego Zoo Institute for Conservation Research) emphasized the need for hope in conservation, arguing that confident expectations lead to increased efforts. The importance of natural history knowledge figured prominently in his talk, both as a way to improve the efficacy of species management plans and as a vehicle for exciting the next generation of conservationists. Ben Minteer (Arizona State University) delved into Aldo Leopold's writings to identify an interventionist land ethic that could inform future conservation efforts. If we decide to intervene, what amount of intervention is appropriate? One highly contested intervention is the assisted migration of species threatened by climate change. Dov Sax (Brown University) explored the complexities of this issue, highlighting that the precautionary principle cut both ways: if we do nothing we may accept extinction passively whereas if we act we may initiate an invasion. The first day of talks ended with a keynote speech by Gabriela Chavarria (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service), which described the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service's attempts to develop science-based management plans to address new conservation challenges. The third symposium, “Managing Ecosystem Services: Balancing Utility and Preservation,” explored how placing humans and human needs at the center of decisions impacted conservation outcomes. Margaret Palmer (National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center) used stream restoration examples to show how human values had to be included in a restoration scheme, because no one restoration approach optimizes all ecosystem services. Erle Ellis (University of Maryland, Baltimore County) pointed out that humans have already modified most terrestrial lands, and that conservation within the Anthropocene will involve balancing human utility with the preservation of biodiversity. Michelle Marvier (Santa Clara University) continued this theme, stating that placing nature above people has undermined support for conservation and that future conservation efforts needed to better integrate human needs. Taylor Ricketts (University of Vermont) then described efforts by the Natural Capital project to develop tools that directly quantify ecosystem services. The goal, according to Ricketts, is to focus on marginal values and identify areas where restoration investments would show the largest ecosystem service gains. Karim-Aly Kassam (Cornell University) concluded the symposium by exploring how perceptions of place and home among rural school children combine both natural and human elements. The final symposium, “Management Outside of Protected Areas: Approaching Alternative Choices” emphasized the conservation potential of human-dominated landscapes and explored ways to integrate private landowners into regional conservation schemes. Paul Armsworth (University of Tennessee, Knoxville) demonstrated how integrating economic principles could foster conservation on farmlands. Gabriela Chavarria (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service) described the ambitious Landscape Conservation Cooperative, which seeks to coordinate conservation activities among private and public landholders at a regional level. Doug Tallamy (University of Delaware) showed how suburban landowners can engage in effective insect and bird conservation by landscaping with native trees and shrubs. Lisa Schulte-Moore (Iowa State University) asked how we could feed a growing world without destroying the planet. She presented a visualization tool, which she uses to help corn growers envision how conversion of cropland to perennial cover would change their farmscape. Janis Dickinson (Cornell University) also presented a dual visualization and citizen science tool, Yard Map, which allows citizens to quantify the conservation value of their backyard, and uses social reputation to spread positive conservation values. Finally, Harry Greene (Cornell University) used Pleistocene rewilding to highlight the plight of large and dangerous animals. He pointed out that global change requires bold conservation initiatives, and advocated for constructive dialogue about those ideas. These presentations served as the jumping-off point for two days of constructive discussion and product development. All attendees were asked to envision a bold new way of “doing conservation” and explore the challenges and opportunities facing conservation practitioners as they transition to a new conservation future. A flurry of ideas for workshops, policy papers, opinion pieces, guides for management, and scientific articles resulted from these conversations. Most attendees left the conference committed to the development of one or two concrete products. Another clear indicator of the success of the conference is the relationships formed among people with diverse backgrounds and expertise. Attendees came from over 40 different NGOs, governmental agencies, and universities. They spanned early-career undergraduate and graduate students to established professors, land managers, and science advisors. If conservation in the future requires increased integration and coordination among individuals and institutions, then the relationships formed at the conference may serve as grounding for future conservation efforts. This fruitful exchange would not have been possible without support from the ESA staff and the strong involvement of the conference organizing committee. In addition to ESA, the Doris Duke Charitable Foundation, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, U.S. Geological Survey, Defenders of Wildlife, and National Park Service sponsored the event. Information about products from the conference, including speaker presentations, will be posted at http://www.esa.org/emergingissues/conference.php as they become available. The Emerging Issues conference series provides ESA members the opportunity to organize special conferences highlighting emerging, exciting ideas in ecology with the endorsement and support of the Society. For further information, see: http://www.esa.org/emergingissues/index.php

<p>About 10000 hectares of forest, corresponding to the 12% of the national forestry heritage, are lost each year in Italy due to arson or negligent fires. Consequences on ecosystem and natural equilibrium are relevant, since the time for the natural restoration process may take several decades. Climate extremes exacerbates Mediterranean area fire risk, due to prolonged drought conditions. On the other hand, hydrogeological risk is also expected to increase over burnt slopes, where surface runoff is incremented due vegetation loss. According to the current legislation, fire risk management is in charge of the Italian Regional Civil Protection, therefore the development of user-oriented tools, able to prevent the fire hazardous conditions, is key element to ensure the forest-fire risk management. In the proposed model, the atmospheric conditions preceding a forest fire are estimated thought the combination of air temperature and relative humidity, as reference of atmospheric parameters.The approach assesses how many times the observed air temperature and RH of the previous 12 days area above the critical conditions (i.e., >25°C and < 50%, respectively). The model validation is carried out by using a three-years dataset of forest fires, that hit the Abruzzo region from 2018 to 2020, combined with meteorological data from civil protection gauges’ network. The developed index identified fire-precursors in the 80% of selected case studies. The missing 20% is manly related to the meteorological uncertainty in poorly gauged areas. Starting from the index validation, a pre-operational tool forced with ECMWF analyses is also described.</p>

<p>Land cover and land management (LCLM) changes are important sources and sinks for anthropogenic CO<sub>2</sub> fluxes. Current earth system models (ESMs) are capable to simulate the globally most sensitive LCLM changes (strong effects or large spatial extent in the earth system) such as de- and afforestation, wood harvest and irrigation, however, a comprehensive analysis between these ESMs is still absent. The present study aims to quantify the biogeochemical effects of forest cover changes, wood harvesting and irrigation of croplands on the global carbon cycle.</p><p> </p><p>Therefore, we conducted coupled atmosphere-ocean-land experiments of idealized global deforestation with and without cropland irrigation as well as global re-/afforestation with and without wood harvest over a 150-year period under present day solar and trace gas forcing. All experiments were simulated by three different ESMs (MPI-ESM, EC-EARTH and CESM) to quantify inter-model uncertainty and potentially uncover specific model biases. The analysis focuses on the transient response of land carbon fluxes and pools after an abrupt LCLM practice change, in order to track the emergence of signals that could potentially mitigate climate change. Additionally, we want to unravel model differences concerning the temporal dynamics of LCLM change effects. Since greenhouse gases (GHG) concentration is kept constant at present-day level, the climate changes here arise from the biogeophysical effects of LCLM changes. We use a checkerboard approach to separate local and non-local components of the climate changes as proposed by Winckler et al., 2017, i.e. we separate the changes in climate induced locally by the LCLM changes from those induced remotely by advection and changes in atmospheric circulation.</p><p> </p><p>First results with the MPI-ESM show that immediate global deforestation starting from present-day land-use distribution causes a 824 GtC loss of the total land carbon pool throughout the simulation period of 150 years, about 46% of which stem from tropical regions (17°S–17°N). Land carbon stocks are not balanced until the end of the simulation, which indicates that the land will continue to emit CO<sub>2</sub> to the atmosphere and a long-term commitment by deforestation for climate change. Non-local effects lead to a loss of 26 GtC from land, again with largest losses found for the tropical regions. Even though it is a small part compared to the total loss (local plus non-local effect), it reveals potentially substantial consequences that LCLM changes at large scale can have unintendedly on other regions, including remote pristine ones, through biogeophysical climate change.</p>

Despite the historical importance of fire as a savanna land management tool, much controversy still surrounds discussions on anthropogenic fire utilization and the sustainability of indigenous land management practices in African savannas. This controversy is arguably a result of a discord between official fire policies and actual indigenous fire practices – a discord based on a gap in existing knowledge of, and a lack of informed literature on, the importance of fire for socio‐economic and environmental survival in savanna environments. Addressing a continuing lack of research on the political ecology of fire, this study investigates the historical and present day socio‐economic, environmental and political frameworks that affect anthropogenic burning regimes and land management in the Kafinda Game Management Area and Kasanka National Park in Zambia. A series of participatory research activities revealed the continuing importance of fire to rural livelihoods, but that a mismatch in desired burning regimes exists between local stakeholders. The paper argues that local power relations are preventing the local communities from adopting burning regimes that would be more environmentally sustainable and more in line with present day farming systems.

Conceptual model for comparative ecological risk assessment of wildfire effects on fish, with and without hazardous fuel treatment

In many Russian nature reserves traditional landscapes are objects of important historical and cultural heritage. To preserve and restore them one needs to deeply understand their development, formation and degradation processes. In the north of European Russia agricultural landscapes are often covered with forests and lose their features when agricultural activity decreases. However, structural characteristics of these forests as a rule tell us about their development and peculiarities of successions. The study aims at creating a technique to estimate the scope of former agricultural land development, model historical transformation of agricultural landscapes and identify plots of slash and burn, shifting, two and three field agriculture judging by structural characteristics of post-agrarian forests. Aided by GIS the study compares raster analogs of land demarcation plans of the second half of the 19th century and vector layers of present day forests with attributive data on the forest structure. The use of cartographic forest data and inventory forest characteristics to compare with former land management documents related to the plot named have not been found in studies before. High precision of present day land management provides for permitted comparability with old demarcation plans and allows one to use inventory data for inter-landscape differentiation of agricultural landscapes in the 19th century. The study covers a model plot within Kenozero National Park (Arkhangelsk Region) addressing 1861 demarcation plans and 2014 forests GIS developed by Arkhangelsk branch of Roslesinforg. GIS processing of 19th century and present day demarcation plans provides for modeling agricultural landscape changes in relation to separate plots, trace the influence of soil conditions and elements of agrarian use on topological and inventory changes of emerging forests and reconstruct the biodiversity of ecosystems in the past.

Risk assessment for rainfall-induced hydrogeological phenomena in urban areas is an important issue for stakeholders, in order to manage the hydrogeological risk in urbanized areas and to plan the future urbanization. The aim of this work is to propose a complete framework for risk assessment in urban areas for two main rainfall-induced phenomena: debris flow and flooding. The work involves several disciplines and wraps them together in a systematic way in order to be used as a DSS (Decision Support System). The work presented in this thesis is developed within the Italian research project METROPOLIS funded by the National Operative Program (PON 03PE_00093_4) and focused on the study of the integrated and sustainable methods and technologies for resilience and safety of urban systems. The project aims at defining the methodology and at developing innovative and sustainable technologies for the evaluation and management of the natural and anthropic risks for urban systems, in order to address mitigation strategies based on integrated decision support systems. The thesis focuses on the reliability assessment of portfolios of buildings located in areas susceptible to hydrogeological hazards. A portfolio of buildings can include one or more structural classes where a given class is characterized by a group of features (e.g., building material, decade of construction, number of storeys, etc.). Within each class, specific statistical considerations are made to characterize both the uncertainty due to lack of knowledge and building-to-building variability in mechanical, geometrical and load properties. The adopted framework is draws obvious analogies with the Performance Based Earthquake Engineering (PBEE) framework. In the context of risk assessment, three main aspects are investigated: the hazard, the vulnerability and the exposure. The first two aspects are described in detail; the exposure quantification, instead, is outside the scope of this work. The hazard evaluation involves specific geological, geotechnical, hydrological and hydraulic competences. This issue has been addressed by a team of specialists that produced the hazard maps for this work for both debris flows and flooding. While for flooding problem it is possible to obtain a complete hazard curve (for each geographical point of interest) in terms of intensity measure (e.g., flood height and/or flood velocity) versus return period of the rainfall event, for debris flow phenomena the question is much more complex. In case of debris flow, in fact, the event does not depend only on return period of the rainfall that triggers the debris flow but depends also on the boundary and initial conditions of the slope. The knowledge of these conditions is almost never available in un-gauged conditions; hence, a scenario-based approach has been adopted in order to solve the risk assessment problem. Analytic vulnerability assessment is performed by calculating the robust fragility curves representing the probability to have an intensity measure value lower than or equal to a certain value which correspond to assumed limit states –considering also the uncertainties in the parameters of the fragility model. The fragility curves represent the vulnerability of a structural class and are calculated by adopting a Bayesian approach and relying on a Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) process for the propagation of uncertainties. In order to estimate the structural capacity for a given limit state, an incremental analysis procedure has been performed during the MCS. The structural model is elastic and finite-element-based accompanied by a defined set of safety checks in order to catch all the potential failure mechanisms of the walls –arguably the most vulnerable structural elements directly subjected to hydrogeological-induced actions. In this thesis, the proposed framework is implemented in an Object-Oriented Java software tool, named HydRA. HydRA performs the propagation of uncertainties in a MCS process by executing a specified number of structural analyses of models generated according to user-defined probability distributions (through the MCS process). HydRA produces as results: the safety checks, the robust fragility curves for specified limit states and the risk maps. The framework is applied on three case studies. In order to validate the structural model and the analysis procedure, two past events have been considered: the flash flood/debris flow event in Scaletta Zanclea (Messina, Italy) occurred in 2009 (a single masonry building has been considered) and the debris flow in Sarno (Salerno, Italy) occurred in 1998 where a portfolio of buildings has been considered. Finally, an application on Castellammare di Stabia (Naples, Italy) is proposed in order to provide the risk maps as an instrument in the service of risk management and promoting risk awareness for hydrogeological phenomena.

In recent years, Italy is facing severe emergency linked to fires. According to the latest reports, over 53,000 hectares of vegetation were lost in 2023, due to arson or negligent fires. Consequences on ecosystem and natural equilibrium are relevant, since the time for the natural restoration process may take several decades. Climate extremes exacerbate Mediterranean area fire risk, due to prolonged drought conditions. On the other hand, hydrogeological risk is also expected to increase over burnt slopes, where surface runoff is incremented due vegetation loss. According to the current legislation, fire risk management is in charge of the Italian Regional Civil Protection (RCP), therefore the development of user-oriented tools, able to prevent the fire hazardous conditions, is key element to ensure the forest-fire risk management. In the proposed model, the atmospheric conditions preceding a forest fire are estimated though the combination of air temperature and relative humidity, as reference of atmospheric parameters. The approach assesses how many times the observed air temperature and RH of the previous 12 days area above the critical conditions (i.e., >25°C and < 50%, respectively). The model calibration and validation are carried out by using a three-years dataset of Abruzzo Region forest fires dataset, that hit the Abruzzo region from 2018 to 2020, combined with meteorological data from civil protection gauges’ network. The developed index identified fire-precursors in the 80% of selected case studies. The missing 20% is mainly related to the meteorological uncertainty in poorly gauged areas. Starting from the index validation, a pre-operational tool forced with European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analyses is also described. The hazard forecasts based on Fire Sentinel Index (FSI), are operational for forest and interface fires forecasting activities on the Abruzzo region, in the framework of a specific agreement signed with the Abruzzo region Civil Protection Agency. The results related to the use of the FSI during the last forest fire prevention campaign that occurred in summer 2024 in the Abruzzo region will be highlighted.

Transport networks are crucial for economic growth, yet their sustainability is increasingly threatened by natural hazards. Recent floods in Italy have highlighted the vulnerability of rail and road infrastructure, causing severe damage and economic losses. The Gargano Promontory in northern Apulia has experienced frequent hydrogeological disruptions over the past decade, significantly affecting bridges and the railway network managed by Ferrovie del Gargano s.r.l. (FdG). However, structural interventions are complex, time-consuming, costly, and involve certain risks. To enhance sustainability and comply with railway safety regulations, FdG has adopted non-structural measures to improve hydrogeological risk classification and management. Despite the prevalence of flood events, the existing literature often overlooks crucial technical aspects, which this study addresses. The HYD.RAIL (HYDraulic Risk Assessment for Infrastructure and Lane) research project aims to improve transport infrastructure resilience by refining hydraulic risk assessments and introducing new classification parameters. HYD.RAIL employs a multicriteria approach, integrating parameters defined in collaboration with railway professionals. This paper presents the initial framework, offering a methodology to identify, classify, and manage hydrogeological risks in transportation infrastructure. Compared to standard methods, which lack detailed risk classification, HYD.RAIL enables more precise flood risk mapping. For example, high-risk points were reduced from 37 to 6 locations on Line 1 and from 134 to 50 on Line 2 using HYD.RAIL. This approach enhances flood risk management efficiency, providing railway operators with a more accurate understanding of infrastructure vulnerabilities.

Abstract. Several studies have been conducted in Africa to assist local governments in addressing the risk situation related to natural hazards. Geospatial data containing information on vulnerability, impacts, climate change, disaster risk reduction is usually part of the output of such studies and is valuable to national and international organizations to reduce the risks and mitigate the impacts of disasters. Nevertheless this data isn't efficiently widely distributed and often resides in remote storage solutions hardly reachable. Spatial Data Infrastructures are technical solutions capable to solve this issue, by storing geospatial data and making them widely available through the internet. Among these solutions, GeoNode, an open source online platform for geospatial data sharing, has been developed in recent years. GeoNode is a platform for the management and publication of geospatial data. It brings together mature and stable open-source software projects under a consistent and easy-to-use interface allowing users, with little training, to quickly and easily share data and create interactive maps. GeoNode data management tools allow for integrated creation of data, metadata, and map visualizations. Each dataset in the system can be shared publicly or restricted to allow access to only specific users. Social features like user profiles and commenting and rating systems allow for the development of communities around each platform to facilitate the use, management, and quality control of the data the GeoNode instance contains (http://geonode.org/). This paper presents a case study scenario of setting up a Web platform based on GeoNode. It is a public platform called MASDAP and promoted by the Government of Malawi in order to support development of the country and build resilience against natural disasters. A substantial amount of geospatial data has already been collected about hydrogeological risk, as well as several other-disasters related information. Moreover this platform will help to ensure that the data created by a number of past or ongoing projects is maintained and that this information remains accessible and useful. An Integrated Flood Risk Management Plan for a river basin has already been included in the platform and other data from future disaster risk management projects will be added as well.

The initial focus of implementing the Fit-for-Purpose Land Administration (FFPLA) methodology was to address the significant, global security of tenure divide. We argue that this land tenure methodology is proving successful in scaling up the provision of security of tenure for developing countries. The increasing adoption of the FFPLA methodology has also opened opportunities and provided flexibility for the innovative use of emerging technologies to accelerate the global roll out of security of tenure, such as the use of autonomous drones and machine learning techniques applied to image analysis. Despite wider adoption of participatory approaches to the recording of land tenure, similar FFP solutions for the other components of land administration services (land value, land use and land development) and land management functions are still evolving. This article therefore explores how the FFP approach can be applied to this wider set of land administration services and land management functions. A case study methodology, using three case studies, is used to determine if the case study approaches meet the FFP criteria. The focus is on the urban environment, drawing mostly from experiences and case studies in the Urban, Disaster Risk Management, Resilience & Land Global Practice of the World Bank. These opportunities for the wider application of the FFP approach and associated principles are being triggered by the innovative use of emerging new data capture technology developments. The paper examines the innovative use of these emerging technologies to identify a common set of data capture techniques and geospatial data that can be shared across a range of urban land administration and management activities. Finally, the paper discusses how individual land projects could be integrated into a more holistic land administration and management program approach and deliver a significant set of socio-economic benefits more quickly. It is found that the FFP approach can be more widely adopted across land administration and land management and in many cases can share a common set of geospatial data. The authors argue that the wider adoption and integration of these new, innovative FFP urban management approaches will require a significant cultural, professional, and institutional change from all stakeholders. Future work will explore more deeply these institutional weaknesses, which will provide a basis for guidance to the World Bank and similar institutions.

<p>Land management and anthropogenic land cover change (LMLCC) plays a key role in the global carbon budget. For example, approximately half of the terrestrial biomass has been removed by LMLCC to date. Conversely, large potentials for carbon dioxide removal are invoked when vegetation-based negative emission technologies such as afforestation are discussed. Previous studies on LMLCC effects on the carbon cycle focused on the direct effect of tree removal or regrowth on carbon fluxes. However, a suite of studies has shown that LMLCC has an important influence on climate via biogeophysical effects through changes in energy and water fluxes. This influence can reach far beyond the location of LMLCC, called the "nonlocal effect" of LMLCC on climate. This raises the question if LMLCC can also have non-negligible effects on the carbon cycle remote from the LMLCC location itself. Our study establishes the concept how to investigate strength and patterns of the unintended nonlocal side-effects of LMLCC on carbon stocks and fluxes.</p><p>Therefore, we conducted three different fully-coupled atmosphere-ocean-land experiments of idealized global cropland expansion with and without cropland irrigation as well as global re-/afforestation starting from today's state over a 150-year period under present day solar and trace gas forcing. All experiments were simulated by three different earth system models (MPI-ESM, EC-EARTH and CESM) to additionally quantify inter-model uncertainty and potentially uncover specific model biases. Here only CESM and MPI-ESM results are presented. To separate the local and nonlocal effects we use a checkerboard approach of grid boxes with and without LMLCC as proposed by Winckler et al., 2017. That is, we separate the carbon stock changes due to LMLCC at the location of LMLCC (local effect) from those induced by climate change caused by remote LMLCC (nonlocal effect). The total effect is the sum of both, the local and nonlocal effect.</p><p>The results of MPI-ESM (CESM) show that the global nonlocal effect on vegetation carbon (cVeg) accounts for 6% (3%) and 4% (0.6%) of total cVeg changes for crop expansion and afforestation simulation, respectively. Additionally, applying irrigation to crop expansion strongly increases the nonlocal climate induced cVeg change by 52% (610%) of total cVeg change for MPI-ESM (CESM).  The nonlocal effect of regions with largest carbon changes exhibit partly much larger nonlocal/total ratio. For instance, the nonlocal cVeg change in the Congo basin after cropland expansion accounts for more than 30% of total cVeg change. Furthermore, in some regions, the nonlocal effect of cVeg can be opposite to the local effect, and may thus reduce the total effect of the LMLCC practice compared to what would be expected from the local effect alone.</p><p>Overall, the results from MPI-ESM and CESM indicate that the nonlocal carbon effect is important in key regions and can even become globally important for the irrigation practices. In addition to local effects, these unintended nonlocal effects need to be considered when the impacts of a LMLCC practice on the entire carbon cycle (e.g., also with regard to a potential carbon dioxide removal method) will be assessed.</p>

Strategic planning in land is now at the stage of development and adoption of new documents defining goals, objectives, directions, priorities and instruments of state land policy and land management. The uniqueness of this object of public management and strategy requires a systematic approach to strategic planning based on both the ecological and social significance of the land and economic value of land resources. The authors examine the possibility of their use as a natural means of agricultural production, draw attention to forestry—the most important factor in the development of economic industries as a territorial (spatial) basis (foundation) of economic activity—location of capital construction objects, other real estate objects, development of modern systems of settling population in an urban and rural areas, urban agglomerations. Accordingly, strategic planning for land management in real estate and spatial development is an important part of land management, urban planning and other related areas.The paper considers terminological and conceptual problems of the object and subject matter of these relations (land, land resources, territory, space, real estate, spatial development, land use ) in the cross-sectoral context of strategic planning. The authors have determined the main issues of formation of the concept and strategy of state strategic management concerning land resources in general, as well as the land use strategy in differnt settlements in the context of present day factors influencing the state of development of this strategic area. The paper examines intersectoral aspects of preparation of documents of strategic planning, the connection of the land use with other areas of strategic management of public development (socio-economic, spatial, urban planning, state property management, energy, environmental safety).As the result of the study, the authors propose new approaches to land strategy and its improvement.

Land cover and land management changes (LCLMC) have often been highlighted as crucial regarding climate change, both for mitigation (e.g. afforestation) and adaptation (e.g. irrigation). In order to understand this role we present fully coupled Earth System Model (ESM) simulations using external forcing conditions from the SSP1-1.9 scenario, except for land cover and land management scenarios that follow differing trajectories. First we conduct a short 30-year historical simulation (histCTL) and a future (years 2015-2100) simulation under SSP1-1.9 conditions but with present day land cover kept at constant end of 2014 conditions (futCTL). These allow us to isolate climate changes in response to the SSP1-19 forcing, but in the absence of land cover changes. Secondly we conduct two simulations under SSP1-1.9 forcing, but with land cover and land management following two different trajectories. These trajectories are derived from the scenarios presented in Humpenöder et al. (2022) and represent two strongly diverging worlds with regard to socio-economic development, environmental protection, and land-based mitigation: (i) the future sustainability scenario (futSust) in which the land sector experiences sustainable development and application of mitigation strategies (such as greenhouse gas emission pricing) in all countries, (ii) the future inequality scenario (futIneq) in which these developments mostly happen in OECD countries, with the rest of the world continuing on current trends (including massive tropical deforestation). Each of these simulations have been run with three different ESMs (CESM, MPI-ESM and EC-EARTH) in order to identify how robust these results are over different ESMs.The results of these simulations can be used to increase our understanding of the role of land cover scenarios within a low-warming future as prescribed by the Paris agreement. We can compare the effects of all other forcings (futCTL- histCTL; CO2, aerosols etc.) to the effects of land cover changes in the different scenarios (futSust – futCTL or futIneq-futCTL) as well as to the difference between the future sustainability and the inequality narratives (futSust-futIneq). These results will be analysed for temperature and moisture fluxes, mainly focusing on warm and dry extremes and how land cover scenarios affect these. ReferencesHumpenöder, F., Popp, A., Schleussner, C. F., Orlov, A., Windisch, M. G., Menke, I., Pongratz, J., Havermann, F., Thiery, W., Luo, F., Jeetze, P. V., Philipp Dietrich, J., Lotze-Campen, H., Weindl, I. & Lejeune, Q. (2022). Overcoming global inequality is critical for land-based mitigation in line with the Paris Agreement. Nature Communications, 13(1), 1-15.