Hybrid Time Series Model for Advanced Predictive Analysis in COVID-19 Vaccination

Abstract

This study aims to enhance the prediction of COVID-19 vaccination trends using a novel integrated forecasting model, facilitating better public health decision-making and resource allocation during the pandemic. As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to impact global health, accurately forecasting vaccination trends is critical for effective public health response and strategy development. Traditional forecasting models often fail to capture the complex dynamics of pandemic-driven vaccination rates. The analysis utilizes a comprehensive dataset comprising over 68,487 entries, detailing daily vaccination statistics across various demographics and geographic locations. This dataset provides a robust foundation for modeling and forecasting efforts. It utilizes advanced time series analysis techniques and machine learning algorithms to accurately predict future vaccination patterns based on the Hybrid Harvest model, which combines the strengths of ARIMA and Prophet models. Hybrid Harvest exhibits superior performance, with mean-square errors (MSEs) of 0.1323, and root-mean-square errors (RMSEs) of 0.0305. Based on these results, the model is significantly more accurate than traditional forecasting methods when predicting vaccination trends. It offers significant advances in forecasting COVID-19 vaccination trends through integration of ARIMA and Prophet models. The model serves as a powerful tool for policymakers to plan vaccination campaigns efficiently and effectively.