Abstract
The world needs a great deal of carbon free energy, and soon, for civilization to continue. Fusion’s goal is to develop such a carbon free energy source. For the last 4 decades, tokamaks have been the best magnetic fusion has to offer. But what if its development stops short of commercial fusion? This paper introduces ‘conservative design principles’ for tokamaks. These are very simple, are reasonably based in theory, and have always constrained tokamak operation. Assuming they continue to do so, it is unlikely that tokamaks will ever make it as commercial reactors. This is independent of their confinement properties. However because of the large additional gain in hybrid fusion, tokamaks reactors look like they can make it as hybrid fuel producers, and provide large scale power by mid century or shortly thereafter.
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