Hybrid Clustering for Retail Demand Forecasting: Combining Rule-Based and Machine Learning Methods

ABSTRACTAir transportation plays a crucial role in the agile and dynamic environment of contemporary supply chains. This industry is characterised by high air cargo demand uncertainty, making forecasting extremely challenging. An in-depth case study has been undertaken in order to explore and untangle the factors influencing demand forecasting and consequently to improve the operational performance of an air cargo handling company. It has been identified that in practice, the demand forecasting process does not provide the necessary level of accuracy, to effectively cope with the high demand uncertainty. This has a negative impact on a whole range of air cargo operations, but especially on the management of the workforce, which is the most expensive resource in the air cargo handling industry. Besides forecast inaccuracy, a range of additional hidden factors that affect operations management have been identified. A number of recommendations have been made to improve demand forecasting and workforce management.

Benefits of backup sourcing for components in assembly systems under supply uncertainty

Consumer packaged goods (CPG) is another word for fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG). The meaning of this product can be deduced directly from the word FMCG. These things are sold in a short period of time and at comparatively low prices. Non-durable products, such as soft drinks, fast food/processed foods, pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, and a variety of other consumables, are excellent examples. To further define the phrase "non-durable," it refers to all goods that should be used within three years after purchase. FMCG has an extremely short shelf life as a result of this characteristic, which could be due to its high demand or its non-durable nature. Although FMCG is sold in large quantities, the profit margin for producers is modest when compared to retailers. However, because the products are sold in big quantities, the overall profit will be sufficient to keep the business afloat.

Most smartphones today have a rich set of sensors that could be used to infer input (e.g., accelerometer, gyroscope, microphone); however, the primary mode of interaction is still limited to the front-facing touchscreen and several physical buttons on the case. To investigate the potential opportunities for interactions supported by built-in sensors, we present the implementation and evaluation of BeyondTouch, a family of interactions to extend and enrich the input experience of a smartphone. Using only existing sensing capabilities on a commodity smartphone, we offer the user a wide variety of additional inputs on the case and the surface adjacent to the smartphone. Although most of these interactions are implemented with machine learning methods, compact and robust rule-based detection methods can also be applied for recognizing some interactions by analyzing physical characteristics of tapping events on the phone. This article is an extended version of Zhang et al. [2015], which solely covered gestures implemented by machine learning methods. We extended our previous work by adding gestures implemented with rule-based methods, which works well with different users across devices without collecting any training data. We outline the implementation of both machine learning and rule-based methods for these interaction techniques and demonstrate empirical evidence of their effectiveness and usability. We also discuss the practicality of BeyondTouch for a variety of application scenarios and compare the two different implementation methods.

Electronic health records are used to extract patient's information instantly and remotely, which can help to keep track of patients' due dates for checkups, immunizations, and to monitor health performance. The Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA) in the USA protects the patient data confidentiality, but it can be used if data is re-identified using `HIPAA Safe Harbor' technique. Usually, this re-identification is performed manually, which is very laborious and time captivating exertion. Various techniques have been proposed for automatic extraction of useful information, and accurate diagnosis of diseases. Most of these methods are based on Machine Learning and Deep Learning Methods, while the auxiliary diagnosis is performed using Rule-based methods. This review focuses on recently published papers, which are categorized into Rule-Based Methods, Machine Learning (ML) Methods, and Deep Learning (DL) Methods. Particularly, ML methods are further categorized into Support Vector Machine Methods (SVM), Bayes Methods, and Decision Tree Methods (DT). DL methods are decomposed into Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN), Deep Belief Network (DBN) and Autoencoders (AE) methods. The objective of this survey paper is to highlight both the strong and weak points of various proposed techniques in the disease diagnosis. Moreover, we present advantage, disadvantage, focused disease, dataset employed, and publication year of each category.

The eye is generally considered to be the most important sensory organ of humans. Diseases and other degenerative conditions of the eye are therefore of great concern as they affect the function of this vital organ. With proper early diagnosis by experts and with optimal use of medicines and surgical techniques, these diseases or conditions can in many cases be either cured or greatly mitigated. Experts that perform the diagnosis are in high demand and their services are expensive, hence the appropriate identification of the cause of vision problems is either postponed or not done at all such that corrective measures are either not done or done too late. An efficient model to predict eye diseases using machine learning (ML) and ranker-based feature selection (r-FS) methods is therefore proposed which will aid in obtaining a correct diagnosis. The aim of this model is to automatically predict one or more of five common eye diseases namely, Cataracts (CT), Acute Angle-Closure Glaucoma (AACG), Primary Congenital Glaucoma (PCG), Exophthalmos or Bulging Eyes (BE) and Ocular Hypertension (OH). We have used efficient data collection methods, data annotations by professional ophthalmologists, applied five different feature selection methods, two types of data splitting techniques (train-test and stratified k-fold cross validation), and applied nine ML methods for the overall prediction approach. While applying ML methods, we have chosen suitable classic ML methods, such as Decision Tree (DT), Random Forest (RF), Naive Bayes (NB), AdaBoost (AB), Logistic Regression (LR), k-Nearest Neighbour (k-NN), Bagging (Bg), Boosting (BS) and Support Vector Machine (SVM). We have performed a symptomatic analysis of the prominent symptoms of each of the five eye diseases. The results of the analysis and comparison between methods are shown separately. While comparing the methods, we have adopted traditional performance indices, such as accuracy, precision, sensitivity, F1-Score, etc. Finally, SVM outperformed other models obtaining the highest accuracy of 99.11% for 10-fold cross-validation and LR obtained 98.58% for the split ratio of 80:20.

BackgroundRecently, more electronic data sources are becoming available in the healthcare domain. Electronic health records (EHRs), with their vast amounts of potentially available data, can greatly improve healthcare. Although EHR de-identification is necessary to protect personal information, automatic de-identification of Japanese language EHRs has not been studied sufficiently. This study was conducted to raise de-identification performance for Japanese EHRs through classic machine learning, deep learning, and rule-based methods, depending on the dataset.ResultsUsing three datasets, we implemented de-identification systems for Japanese EHRs and compared the de-identification performances found for rule-based, Conditional Random Fields (CRF), and Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM)-based methods. Gold standard tags for de-identification are annotated manually for age, hospital, person, sex, and time. We used different combinations of our datasets to train and evaluate our three methods. Our best F1-scores were 84.23, 68.19, and 81.67 points, respectively, for evaluations of the MedNLP dataset, a dummy EHR dataset that was virtually written by a medical doctor, and a Pathology Report dataset. Our LSTM-based method was the best performing, except for the MedNLP dataset. The rule-based method was best for the MedNLP dataset. The LSTM-based method achieved a good score of 83.07 points for this MedNLP dataset, which differs by 1.16 points from the best score obtained using the rule-based method. Results suggest that LSTM adapted well to different characteristics of our datasets. Our LSTM-based method performed better than our CRF-based method, yielding a 7.41 point F1-score, when applied to our Pathology Report dataset. This report is the first of study applying this LSTM-based method to any de-identification task of a Japanese EHR.ConclusionsOur LSTM-based machine learning method was able to extract named entities to be de-identified with better performance, in general, than that of our rule-based methods. However, machine learning methods are inadequate for processing expressions with low occurrence. Our future work will specifically examine the combination of LSTM and rule-based methods to achieve better performance.Our currently achieved level of performance is sufficiently higher than that of publicly available Japanese de-identification tools. Therefore, our system will be applied to actual de-identification tasks in hospitals.

Simple SummaryRadiogenomics enables prediction of the status and prognosis of patients using non-invasively obtained imaging data. Current machine learning (ML) methods used in radiogenomics require huge datasets, which involve the handling of large heterogeneous datasets from multiple cohorts/hospitals. In this study, two different glioma datasets were used to test various ML and image pre-processing methods to confirm whether the models trained on one dataset are universally applicable to other datasets. Our result suggested that the ML method that yielded the highest accuracy in a single dataset was likely to be overfitted. We demonstrated that implementation of standardization and dimension reduction procedures prior to classification, enabled the development of ML methods that are less affected by the multiple cohort difference. We advocate using caution in interpreting the results of radiogenomic studies of the training and testing datasets that are small or mixed, with a view to implementing practical ML methods in radiogenomics.Radiogenomics use non-invasively obtained imaging data, such as magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), to predict critical biomarkers of patients. Developing an accurate machine learning (ML) technique for MRI requires data from hundreds of patients, which cannot be gathered from any single local hospital. Hence, a model universally applicable to multiple cohorts/hospitals is required. We applied various ML and image pre-processing procedures on a glioma dataset from The Cancer Image Archive (TCIA, n = 159). The models that showed a high level of accuracy in predicting glioblastoma or WHO Grade II and III glioma using the TCIA dataset, were then tested for the data from the National Cancer Center Hospital, Japan (NCC, n = 166) whether they could maintain similar levels of high accuracy. Results: we confirmed that our ML procedure achieved a level of accuracy (AUROC = 0.904) comparable to that shown previously by the deep-learning methods using TCIA. However, when we directly applied the model to the NCC dataset, its AUROC dropped to 0.383. Introduction of standardization and dimension reduction procedures before classification without re-training improved the prediction accuracy obtained using NCC (0.804) without a loss in prediction accuracy for the TCIA dataset. Furthermore, we confirmed the same tendency in a model for IDH1/2 mutation prediction with standardization and application of dimension reduction that was also applicable to multiple hospitals. Our results demonstrated that overfitting may occur when an ML method providing the highest accuracy in a small training dataset is used for different heterogeneous data sets, and suggested a promising process for developing an ML method applicable to multiple cohorts.

Home energy systems (HESs) face challenges, including high energy costs, peak load impact, and reliability issues associated with grid connections. To address these challenges, homeowners can implement solutions such as energy management, renewable resources, and energy storage technologies. Understanding consumption patterns and optimizing HES operations are crucial for effective energy management. As a primary step, addressing these concerns requires an efficient forecasting tool to predict home energy demand and electricity prices. Due to the complexity of big data, and uncertainties involved in forecasting, machine learning (ML) methods are necessary. In this study, we develop a hybrid machine learning approach, utilizing one year of data on home energy demand and prices to address the challenge of forecasting home energy consumption. A comprehensive comparison of different deep and non-deep ML models highlights the superiority of the proposed hybrid approach. The performance of these models, measured using metrics such as RMSE, MAE, R2, and RT (running time), are compared. Finally, an optimized hybrid XGBoost (XGB) ML model that combines price and energy demand forecasting is introduced. The proposed ML method’s parameters are optimally determined using Particle Swarm Optimization. The hybrid ML model’s performance is evaluated in predicting both energy demand and consumption prices using historical data from diverse households with various features and consumption patterns. The results indicate that the hybrid ML model achieves accurate predictions for energy consumption and prices, with improvements in RMSE (up to 36.6%), MAE (up to 36.8%), and R2 (up to 3.9), as compared to conventional ML methods. This research contributes to sustainable energy practices by providing an effective tool for forecasting energy consumption and associated costs in the dynamic landscape of home energy systems.

In recent years, the need for detection and de-identification of sensitive data in both structured and unstructured forms has increased. The methods used for these tasks have evolved accordingly and currently there are many solutions in different areas of interest. This paper describes the need for the detection of sensitive data in large datasets and describes the challenges associated with automating the detection process. It gives a brief overview of the rule-based and machine learning methods used in this area and examples of their application. The advantages and disadvantages of the described methods are also discussed. We show that the most recent detection solutions are based on the latest and most advanced models proposed in the field of natural language processing, but that there are still some rule-based methods used for certain types of sensitive data. In recent years, the need for detection and de-identification of sensitive data in both structured and unstructured forms has increased. The methods used for these tasks have evolved accordingly and currently there are many solutions in different areas of interest. This paper describes the need for the detection of sensitive data in large datasets and describes the challenges associated with automating the detection process. It gives a brief overview of the rule-based and machine learning methods used in this area and examples of their application. The advantages and disadvantages of the described methods are also discussed. We show that the most recent detection solutions are based on the latest and most advanced models proposed in the field of natural language processing, but that there are still some rule-based methods used for certain types of sensitive data.

Applications of machine learning in friction stir welding: Prediction of joint properties, real-time control and tool failure diagnosis

Reservoir identification and production prediction are two of the most important tasks in petroleum exploration and development. Machine learning (ML) methods are used for petroleum-related studies, but have not been applied to reservoir identification and production prediction based on reservoir identification. Production forecasting studies are typically based on overall reservoir thickness and lack accuracy when reservoirs contain a water or dry layer without oil production. In this paper, a systematic ML method was developed using classification models for reservoir identification, and regression models for production prediction. The production models are based on the reservoir identification results. To realize the reservoir identification, seven optimized ML methods were used: four typical single ML methods and three ensemble ML methods. These methods classify the reservoir into five types of layers: water, dry and three levels of oil (Ⅰ oil layer, Ⅱ oil layer, Ⅲ oil layer). The validation and test results of these seven optimized ML methods suggest the three ensemble methods perform better than the four single ML methods in reservoir identification. The XGBoost produced the model with the highest accuracy; up to 99%. The effective thickness of Ⅰ and Ⅱ oil layers determined during the reservoir identification was fed into the models for predicting production. Effective thickness considers the distribution of the water and the oil resulting in a more reasonable production prediction compared to predictions based on the overall reservoir thickness. To validate the superiority of the ML methods, reference models using overall reservoir thickness were built for comparison. The models based on effective thickness outperformed the reference models in every evaluation metric. The prediction accuracy of the ML models using effective thickness were 10% higher than that of reference model. Without the personal error or data distortion existing in traditional methods, this novel system realizes rapid analysis of data while reducing the time required to resolve reservoir classification and production prediction challenges. The ML models using the effective thickness obtained from reservoir identification were more accurate when predicting oil production compared to previous studies which use overall reservoir thickness.

Maize lodging is a prevalent stress that can significantly diminish corn yield and quality. Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) remote sensing is a practical means to quickly obtain lodging information at field scale, such as area, severity, and distribution. However, existing studies primarily use machine learning (ML) methods to qualitatively analyze maize lodging (lodging and non-lodging) or estimate the maize lodging percentage, while there is less research using deep learning (DL) to quantitatively estimate maize lodging parameters (type, severity, and direction). This study aims to introduce advanced DL algorithms into the maize lodging classification task using UAV-multispectral images and investigate the advantages of DL compared with traditional ML methods. This study collected a UAV-multispectral dataset containing non-lodging maize and lodging maize with different lodging types, severities, and directions. Additionally, 22 vegetation indices (VIs) were extracted from multispectral data, followed by spatial aggregation and image cropping. Five ML classifiers and three DL models were trained to classify the maize lodging parameters. Finally, we compared the performance of ML and DL models in evaluating maize lodging parameters. The results indicate that the Random Forest (RF) model outperforms the other four ML algorithms, achieving an overall accuracy (OA) of 89.29% and a Kappa coefficient of 0.8852. However, the maize lodging classification performance of DL models is significantly better than that of ML methods. Specifically, Swin-T performs better than ResNet-50 and ConvNeXt-T, with an OA reaching 96.02% and a Kappa coefficient of 0.9574. This can be attributed to the fact that Swin-T can more effectively extract detailed information that accurately characterizes maize lodging traits from UAV-multispectral data. This study demonstrates that combining DL with UAV-multispectral data enables a more comprehensive understanding of maize lodging type, severity, and direction, which is essential for post-disaster rescue operations and agricultural insurance claims.

Traditional methods have long been used for clinical demand forecasting. Machine learning methods represent the next evolution in forecasting, but model choice and optimization remain challenging for achieving optimal results. To determine the best method to predict demand for outpatient appointments comparing machine learning and traditional methods, this retrospective study analyzed "appointment requests" at a major outpatient department in a destination medical center. Two separate locations (A and B) were assessed with 20 traditional, hybrid (traditional + machine learning) and machine learning methods to determine the best forecasting outcome (lowest Forecast Standard Error, FSE). Data characteristics from both datasets were examined. 20 forecasting models were then assessed and compared for the best result. Location A's data displayed a cyclical and non-trending pattern while Location B's displayed a cyclical and trending pattern. Both Location A and B yielded the feature engineered XGBoost model (machine learning) with the lowest out-of-sample FSE. It is important to carefully analyze and understand the underlying data set pattern and then test a variety of traditional, machine learning, and hybrid prediction methods to achieve optimal predictive results. Additionally, the use of feature engineering or hybrid methods can augment the usefulness of machine learning methods.

Artificial intelligence has been applied in wildfire science and management since the 1990s, with early applications including neural networks and expert systems. Since then, the field has rapidly progressed congruently with the wide adoption of machine learning (ML) methods in the environmental sciences. Here, we present a scoping review of ML applications in wildfire science and management. Our overall objective is to improve awareness of ML methods among wildfire researchers and managers, as well as illustrate the diverse and challenging range of problems in wildfire science available to ML data scientists. To that end, we first present an overview of popular ML approaches used in wildfire science to date and then review the use of ML in wildfire science as broadly categorized into six problem domains, including (i) fuels characterization, fire detection, and mapping; (ii) fire weather and climate change; (iii) fire occurrence, susceptibility, and risk; (iv) fire behavior prediction; (v) fire effects; and (vi) fire management. Furthermore, we discuss the advantages and limitations of various ML approaches relating to data size, computational requirements, generalizability, and interpretability, as well as identify opportunities for future advances in the science and management of wildfires within a data science context. In total, to the end of 2019, we identified 300 relevant publications in which the most frequently used ML methods across problem domains included random forests, MaxEnt, artificial neural networks, decision trees, support vector machines, and genetic algorithms. As such, there exists opportunities to apply more current ML methods — including deep learning and agent-based learning — in the wildfire sciences, especially in instances involving very large multivariate datasets. We must recognize, however, that despite the ability of ML models to learn on their own, expertise in wildfire science is necessary to ensure realistic modelling of fire processes across multiple scales, while the complexity of some ML methods such as deep learning requires a dedicated and sophisticated knowledge of their application. Finally, we stress that the wildfire research and management communities play an active role in providing relevant, high-quality, and freely available wildfire data for use by practitioners of ML methods.