Abstract
Despite the low occurrence of tropical cyclones at the archipelago of San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina (Colombia), Hurricane Iota in 2020 made evident the area vulnerability to tropical cyclones as major hazards by obliterating 56.4 % of housing, partially destroying the remaining houses in Providencia. We investigated the hurricane storm surge inundation in the archipelago by forcing hydrodynamic models with synthetic tropical cyclones and hypothetical hurricanes. The storm surge from synthetic events allowed identifying the strongest surges using the probability distribution, enabling the generation of hurricane storm surge flood maps for 100 and 500 year return periods. This analysis suggested that the east of San Andres and Providencia are the more likely areas to be flooded from hurricanes storm surges. The hypothetical events were used to force the hydrodynamic model to create worst-case flood scenario maps, useful for contingency and development planning. Additionally, Hurricane Iota flood levels were calculated using 2D and 1D models. The 2D model included storm surge (SS), SS with astronomical tides (AT), and SS with AT and wave setup (WS), resulting in a total flooded area (percentage related to Providencia’s total area) of 67.05 ha (3.25 %), 65.23 ha (3.16 %), and 76.68 ha (3.68%), respectively. While Hurricane Iota occurred during low tide, the WS contributed 14.93 % (11.45 ha) of the total flooded area in Providencia. The 1D approximation showed that during the storm peak in the eastern of the island, the contribution of AT, SS, and wave runup to the maximum sea water level was −3.01%, 46.36%, and 56.55 %, respectively. This finding provides evidence of the water level underestimation in insular environments when modeling SS without wave contributions. The maximum SS derived from Iota was 1.25 m at the east of Providencia, which according to this study has an associated return period of 3,234 years. The methodology proposed in this study can be applied to other coastal zones and may include the effect of climate change on hurricane storm surges and sea-level rise. Results from this study are useful for emergency managers, government, coastal communities, and policymakers as civil protection measures.
Highlights
Tropical Cyclones (TC) present a major hazard for countries in tropical areas (Ortiz-Royero, 2012; Martell-Dubois et al, 2018; Marsooli and Lin, 2020; Mendoza et al, 2020)
The total flooded area and associated percentage related to the total area of San Andres are 354.83 ha (13.24 %), 392.23 ha (14.64%), and 164.63 ha (6.14 %) for the hypothetical hurricane category V Maximum of MEOWs (MOMs) for zero tide level, hypothetical hurricane category V MOMs for high tide, and the flood-prone area induced by the synthetic TC storm surge (SS), respectively
This study presents a characterization of the hurricane SS inundation threat for the archipelago of San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina, which is a site with scarce historical events
Summary
Tropical Cyclones (TC) present a major hazard for countries in tropical areas (Ortiz-Royero, 2012; Martell-Dubois et al, 2018; Marsooli and Lin, 2020; Mendoza et al, 2020). TC have caused significant loss of life, coastal infrastructure damage, and affectation in the Caribbean economics Destruction due to such storms comes in the form of heavy high winds, flooding due to storm surge (SS) (Lin et al, 2014; Marsooli and Lin, 2020; Rey et al, 2020) and waves (Chang et al, 2018; Shih et al, 2018; Chen et al, 2019), and heavy rainfall (Sealy and Strobl, 2017). According to Ortiz Royero et al (2015), the San Andres Island has been exposed in the last 100 years to only 17 TC, which have passed less than 150 km from the coast, approaching mostly from the SE. The latest is the only recorded landfalling TC in Providencia Island as a category V, based on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (SSHWS), and resulted in the obliteration of 56.4 % of housing, partial destruction of the remaining 43.6%, displacement of more than 5000 inhabitants to the makeshift harbor, and affecting power, communications, and fisher’s infrastructure (Colombian’s National Unit for the Management of Risk of Disasters) (UNGRD, 2021)
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
