HUMTRN and EFFECTS: age and sex specific dosimetric and physiological human population dynamics models for dose assessment.

Abstract

A human simulation model called HUMTRN and a population risk assessment model called EFFECTS were developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory as a major component of the BIOTRAN environmental risk assessment model. HUMTRN simulates growth using dietary and physiological characteristics and kinetics of radionuclides to predict radiation doses to selected organs of both sexes in different age groups. The model called EFFECTS was interfaced with output from HUMTRN to predict cancer risks in a dynamic human population. EFFECTS is based on the National Research Council Committee on the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR)-III radiation cancer mortality estimates from the U.S. population mortality and natality estimates for both sexes between the ages of 1 and 70. These models track radiation intake from air, water, and food, calculate uptake in major growing organs, and estimate cancer mortality risks. This report documents the use of an IBM Personal Computer AT to run HUMTRN and EFFECTS. Air, water, and food contaminant concentrations are provided as input to HUMTRN, which then provides input for EFFECTS. The limitations of this approach are also discussed.