Abstract
Coral reefs are among the most species-rich and threatened ecosystems on Earth, yet the extent to which human stressors determine species occurrences, compared with biogeography or environmental conditions, remains largely unknown. With ever-increasing human-mediated disturbances on these ecosystems, an important question is not only how many species can inhabit local communities, but also which biological traits determine species that can persist (or not) above particular disturbance thresholds. Here we show that human pressure and seasonal climate variability are disproportionately and negatively associated with the occurrence of large-bodied and geographically small-ranging fishes within local coral reef communities. These species are 67% less likely to occur where human impact and temperature seasonality exceed critical thresholds, such as in the marine biodiversity hotspot: the Coral Triangle. Our results identify the most sensitive species and critical thresholds of human and climatic stressors, providing opportunity for targeted conservation intervention to prevent local extinctions.
Highlights
Coral reefs are among the most species-rich and threatened ecosystems on Earth, yet the extent to which human stressors determine species occurrences, compared with biogeography or environmental conditions, remains largely unknown
The peak in marine biodiversity observed in the Coral Triangle has been explained by several non-mutually exclusive hypotheses that involve the roles of energy[2], habitat area[3], biogeography[4] and geometric constraints on species range sizes[5,6]
Using machine-learning techniques[25] combined with detectability and null permutation models, we identified the main correlates of occurrence for each species and their associated thresholds among (i) indices of human pressure, (ii) energy proxies, including sea surface temperature and primary productivity, (iii) habitat area and (iv) biogeography, including distances to land masses and the Coral Triangle
Summary
Coral reefs are among the most species-rich and threatened ecosystems on Earth, yet the extent to which human stressors determine species occurrences, compared with biogeography or environmental conditions, remains largely unknown. Using machine-learning techniques[25] combined with detectability and null permutation models, we identified the main correlates of occurrence for each species and their associated thresholds among (i) indices of human pressure, (ii) energy proxies, including sea surface temperature and primary productivity, (iii) habitat area (both present and historical26) and (iv) biogeography, including distances to land masses and the Coral Triangle.
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