Human Factor Failure Analysis in Anti-collision Task Based on Uncertainty Theory and CREAM Model

Abstract

Increasing human reliability can furthest reduce the probability of human error, and improve the safety management level of anti-collision work. For this reason, an anti-collision human factor failure analysis model is established based on Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method (CREAM) and uncertainty theory. In the method, firstly, through CREAM, the accident cases are analyzed, the failure modes are identified, the failure probability are predicted. Then, in the absence of objective historical data, the expert data are processed based on uncertainty theory to correct the failure probability obtained by CREAM and evaluate the human reliability in the accident. An example analysis of midair collision accident with air traffic controller as main body indicates that, the proposed method can quantitatively evaluate the human reliability in anti-collision task with rigorous procedure, good operability and credible results, and collects and enriches the basic data of human factors. This verified its effectiveness and feasibility in anti-collision human factor failure analysis.