How Useful Are Nuclear Weapons in Practice? Case-Study: The War in Ukraine

Abstract

ABSTRACT The debate about nuclear weapons has been based on abstract notions. The war in Ukraine is a fascinating case-study for testing these decades-old abstract theories. The puzzle can be formulated as follows: what has been the impact of nuclear weapons in the war in Ukraine and what does that tell us about the usefulness of nuclear weapons in general? That question is further split up in three questions: what does this war tells us respectively about nuclear deterrence theory, nuclear responsibility theory, and the theory of nuclear coercion? Each time, the theory will be explained, and matched with the facts on the ground. The answers to these questions will in all likelihood be important for the future of nuclear weapons. All in all, the analysis points out a bleak picture with respect to the usefulness of nuclear weapons. Apart from deterring an attack against the vital interests of a state, nuclear weapons do not seem to provide many benefits apart from many (potential) costs. And even with respect to deterring an attack against the vital interests of a state, it is unclear to what extent nuclear deterrence works.