How to Explain the Huge Differences in Rebound Estimates: A Meta-Regression Analysis of the Literature

Abstract

Rebound effects are commonly defined as the relative gap between the potential and realized savings in resource use following efficiency improvements or sufficiency changes. While a considerable number of studies quantify rebound effects, empirical estimates vary widely. Reliable information on the magnitude of rebound effects is therefore still lacking, despite being essential to devise and adjust, for example, energy efficiency policies accordingly. Here, we present the first meta-regression analysis of microeconomic rebound effects at the household level, using forty-three studies with 1,118 estimates to determine average rebound effects and to explain heterogeneous empirical findings. We find that the total microeconomic rebound is, on average, about 41%–52%. The variance can be explained by differences in the type of data used, the scenario setup, and the specifics of the rebound estimation in the primary studies. Furthermore, we find only small absolute transfer errors, indicating a good predictability of rebound effects using our meta-regression model.