How long do Red Queen dynamics survive under genetic drift? A comparative analysis of evolutionary and eco-evolutionary models

Eco-evolutionary modelling involves the coupling of ecological equations to evolutionary ones. The interaction between ecological dynamics and evolutionary processes is essential to simulating evolutionary branching, a precursor to speciation. The creation and maintenance of biodiversity in models depends upon their ability to capture the dynamics of evolutionary branching. Understanding these systems requires low-dimension models that are amenable to analysis. The rapid reproduction rates of marine plankton ecosystems and their importance in determining the fluxes of climatically important gases between the ocean and atmosphere suggest that the next generation of global climate models needs to incorporate eco-evolutionary models in the ocean. This requires simple population-level models, that can represent such eco-evolutionary processes with orders of magnitude fewer equations than models that follow the dynamics of individual phenotypes. We present a general framework for developing eco-evolutionary models and consider its general properties. This framework defines a fitness function and assumes a beta distribution of phenotype abundances within each population. It simulates the change in total population size, the mean trait value, and the trait differentiation, from which the variance of trait values in the population may be calculated. We test the efficacy of the eco-evolutionary modelling framework by comparing the dynamics of evolutionary branching in a six-equation eco-evolutionary model that has evolutionary branching, with that of an equivalent one-hundred equation model that simulates the dynamics of every phenotype in the population. The latter model does not involve a population fitness function, nor does it assume a distribution of phenotype abundance across trait values. The eco-evolutionary population model and the phenotype model produce similar evolutionary branching, both qualitatively and quantitatively, in both symmetric and asymmetric fitness landscapes. In order to better understand the six-equation model, we develop a heuristic three-equation eco-evolutionary model. We use the density-independent mortality parameter as a convenient bifurcation parameter, so that differences in evolutionary branching dynamics in symmetric and asymmetric fitness landscapes may be investigated. This model shows that evolutionary branching of a stable population is flagged by a zero in the local trait curvature; the trait curvature then changes sign from negative to positive and back to negative, along the solution. It suggests that evolutionary branching points may be generated differently, with different dynamical properties, depending upon, in this case, the symmetry of the system. It also suggests that a changing environment, that may change attributes such as mortality, could have profound effects on an ecosystem’s ability to adapt. Our results suggest that the properties of the three-dimensional model can provide useful insights into the properties of the higher-dimension models. In particular, the bifurcation properties of the simple model predict the processes by which the more complicated models produce evolutionary branching points. The corresponding bifurcation properties of the phenotype and population models, evident in the dynamics of the phenotype distributions they predict, suggest that our eco-evolutionary modelling framework captures the essential properties that underlie the evolution of phenotypes in populations.

In host-parasite systems, dominant host types are expected to be eventually replaced by other hosts due to the elevated potency of their specific parasites. This leads to changes in the abundance of both hosts and parasites exhibiting cycles of alternating dominance called Red Queen dynamics. Host-parasite models with less than three hosts and parasites have been demonstrated to exhibit Red Queen cycles, but natural host-parasite interactions typically involve many host and parasite types resulting in an intractable system with many parameters. Here we present numerical simulations of Red Queen dynamics with more than ten hosts and specialist parasites under the condition of no super-host nor super-parasite. The parameter region where the Red Queen cycles arise contracts as the number of interacting host and parasite types increases. The interplay between inter-host competition and parasite infectivity influences the condition for the Red Queen dynamics. Relatively large host carrying capacity and intermediate rates of parasite mortality result in never-ending cycles of dominant types.

Conventional approaches to modelling ecological dynamics often do not include evolutionary changes in the genetic makeup of component species and, conversely, conventional approaches to modelling evolutionary changes in the genetic makeup of a population often do not include ecological dynamics. But recently there has been considerable interest in understanding the interaction of evolutionary and ecological dynamics as coupled processes. However, in the context of complex multi-species ecosytems, especially where ecological and evolutionary timescales are similar, it is difficult to identify general organising principles that help us understand the structure and behaviour of complex ecosystems. Here we introduce a simple abstraction of coevolutionary interactions in a multi-species ecosystem.We model non-trophic ecological interactions based on a continuous but low-dimensional trait/niche space, where the location of each species in trait space affects the overlap of its resource utilisation with that of other species. The local depletion of available resources creates, in effect, a deformable fitness landscape that governs how the evolution of one species affects the selective pressures on other species. This enables us to study the coevolution of ecological interactions in an intuitive and easily visualisable manner.We observe that this model can exhibit either of the two behaviouralmodes discussed in the literature; namely, evolutionary stasis or Red Queen dynamics, i.e., continued evolutionary change.We find that which of these modes is observed depends on the lag or latency between the movement of a species in trait space and its effect on available resources. Specifically, if ecological change is nearly instantaneous compared to evolutionary change, stasis results; but conversely, if evolutionary timescales are closer to ecological timescales, such that resource depletion is not instantaneous on evolutionary timescales, then Red Queen dynamics result. We also observe that in the stasis mode, the overall utilisation of resources by the ecosystem is relatively efficient, with diverse species utilising different niches, whereas in the Red Queen mode the organisation of the ecosystem is such that species tend to clump together competing for overlapping resources. These models thereby suggest some basic conditions that influence the organisation of inter-species interactions and the balance of individual and collective adaptation in ecosystems, and likewise they also suggest factors that might be useful in engineering artificial coevolution.

Heritable trait variation is a central and necessary ingredient of evolution. Trait variation also directly affects ecological processes, generating a clear link between evolutionary and ecological dynamics. Despite the changes in variation that occur through selection, drift, mutation, and recombination, current eco-evolutionary models usually fail to track how variation changes through time. Moreover, eco-evolutionary models assume fitness functions for each trait and each ecological context, which often do not have empirical validation. We introduce a new type of model, Gillespie eco-evolutionary models (GEMs), that resolves these concerns by tracking distributions of traits through time as eco-evolutionary dynamics progress. This is done by allowing change to be driven by the direct fitness consequences of model parameters within the context of the underlying ecological model, without having to assume a particular fitness function. GEMs work by adding a trait distribution component to the standard Gillespie algorithm - an approach that models stochastic systems in nature that are typically approximated through ordinary differential equations. We illustrate GEMs with the Rosenzweig-MacArthur consumer-resource model. We show not only how heritable trait variation fuels trait evolution and influences eco-evolutionary dynamics, but also how the erosion of variation through time may hinder eco-evolutionary dynamics in the long run. GEMs can be developed for any parameter in any ordinary differential equationmodel and, furthermore, can enable modeling of multiple interacting traits at the same time. We expect GEMs will open the door to a new direction in eco-evolutionary and evolutionary modeling by removing long-standing modeling barriers, simplifying the link between traits, fitness, and dynamics, and expanding eco-evolutionary treatment of a greater diversity of ecological interactions. These factors make GEMs much more than a modeling advance, but an important conceptual advance that bridges ecology and evolution through the central concept of heritable trait variation.

Effective population size

Chaotic provinces in the kingdom of the Red Queen

The Red Queen hypothesis for the maintenance of cross-fertilization requires that parasites evolve to infect disproportionately the most common of local host genotypes and prevent their spread. Here we test the idea that digenetic trematodes are non-randomly infecting the common clonal genotypes in four populations of the freshwater snail Potamopyrgus antipodarum. The results show that the most common clone was significantly over-infected in one population, significantly under-infected in two other populations, and proportionately infected in the fourth population by the predominant castrating parasite. We show that, given the expectation of time lags in the system, these results are consistent with expectation under the Red Queen theory.

Red Queen host–parasite co-evolution can drive adaptations of immune genes by positive selection that erodes genetic variation (Red Queen arms race) or results in a balanced polymorphism (Red Queen dynamics) and long-term preservation of genetic variation (trans-species polymorphism). These two Red Queen processes are opposite extremes of the co-evolutionary spectrum. Here we show that both Red Queen processes can operate simultaneously by analysing the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) in guppies (Poecilia reticulata and P. obscura) and swamp guppies (Micropoecilia picta). Sub-functionalisation of MHC alleles into ‘supertypes’ explains how polymorphisms persist during rapid host–parasite co-evolution. Simulations show the maintenance of supertypes as balanced polymorphisms, consistent with Red Queen dynamics, whereas alleles within supertypes are subject to positive selection in a Red Queen arms race. Building on the divergent allele advantage hypothesis, we show that functional aspects of allelic diversity help to elucidate the evolution of polymorphic genes involved in Red Queen co-evolution.

Coevolution between two antagonistic species follows the so-called 'Red Queen dynamics' when reciprocal selection results in an endless series of adaptation by one species and counteradaptation by the other. Red Queen dynamics are 'genetically driven' when selective sweeps involving new beneficial mutations result in perpetual oscillations of the coevolving traits on the slow evolutionary time scale. Mathematical models have shown that a prey and a predator can coevolve along a genetically driven Red Queen cycle. We found that embedding the prey-predator interaction into a three-species food chain that includes a coevolving superpredator often turns the genetically driven Red Queen cycle into chaos. A key condition is that the prey evolves fast enough. Red Queen chaos implies that the direction and strength of selection are intrinsically unpredictable beyond a short evolutionary time, with greatest evolutionary unpredictability in the superpredator. We hypothesize that genetically driven Red Queen chaos could explain why many natural populations are poised at the edge of ecological chaos. Over space, genetically driven chaos is expected to cause the evolutionary divergence of local populations, even under homogenizing environmental fluctuations, and thus to promote genetic diversity among ecological communities over long evolutionary time.

In our former paper, we have investigated the relation among the mean convergence time, the population size, and the chromosome length of genetic algorithms (GAs). Our analyses of GAs make use of the Markov chain formalism based on the Wright-Fisher model, which is a typical and well-known model in population genetics. The Wright-Fisher model is characterized by 1-locus, 2-alleles, fixed population size, and discrete generation. For these simple characters, it is easy to evaluate the behavior of genetic process. We have also given the mean convergence time under genetic drift. Genetic drift can be well described in the Wright-Fisher model, and we have determined the stationary states of the corresponding Markov chain model and the mean convergence time to reach one of these stationary states. The island model is also well-known model in population genetics, and it is similar to one of the most typical model of parallel GAs, which require parallel computer for high performance computing. We have also derived the most effective migration rate for the island model parallel GAs with some restrictions. The obtained most effective migration rate is rather small value, i.e. one immigrant per generation, however the behaviors of the island model parallel GAs at that migration rate are not revealed yet clearly. In this paper, we discuss the mean convergence time for the island model parallel GAs from both of exact solution and numerical simulation. As expected from the Wright-Fisher model’s analysis, the mean convergence time of the island model parallel GAs is proportional to population size, and the coefficient is larger with smaller migration rate. Since to keep the diversity in population is important for effective performance of GAs, the convergence in population gives a bad influence for GAs. On the other hand, mutation and crossover operation prevent converging in GAs population. Because of the small migration rate makes converging force weak, it must be effective for GAs. This means that the island model parallel GAs is more efficient not only to use large population size with parallel computers, but also to keep the diversity in population, than usual GAs.

Biological populations are dynamic in both space and time, that is, the population size of a species fluctuates across their habitats over time. There are rarely any static or fixed size populations in nature. In evolutionary computation (EC), population size is one of the most important parameters and it received attention from EC pioneers from the very beginning. Despite many attempts to optimize the population sizing, the prevailing scheme in EC is still possibly the simplest --- the fixed size population. This is in strong contrast with population entities in nature. In this paper, we explore the effects of dynamic (fluctuating) populations on the performance of genetic algorithms (GA). In particular, we test five dynamic population-sizing patterns: random fluctuating population, increasing population, decreasing population, bell-shaped population, and inverse bell-shaped population and compare them against the fixed size population. Our experiment shows very promising results that the dynamic populations perform more efficiently than the traditional fixed size populations, in terms of the number of fitness function evaluations and memory space requirements. We also analyze why the dynamic populations should perform superior to the fixed size populations from the biological perspective.

Host–parasite coevolution: why changing population size matters

How life-history strategies influence the evolution of populations is not well understood. Most existing models stem from the Wright-Fisher model which considers discrete generations and a fixed population size, thus not taking into account any potential consequences of overlapping generations and demographic stochasticity on allelic frequencies. We introduce an individual-based model in which both population size and genotypic frequencies at a single bi-allelic locus are emergent properties of the model. Demographic parameters can be defined so as to represent a large range of r and K life-history strategies in a stable environment, and appropriate fixed effective population sizes are calculated so as to compare our model to the Wright-Fisher diffusion. Our results indicate that models with fixed population size that stem from the Wright-Fisher diffusion cannot fully capture the consequences of demographic stochasticity on allele fixation in long-lived species with low reproductive rates. This discrepancy is accentuated in the presence of demo-genetic feedback. Furthermore, we predict that populations with K life-histories should maintain lower genetic diversity than those with r life-histories.

In this article, discrete and stochastic changes in (effective) population size are incorporated into the spectral representation of a biallelic diffusion process for drift and small mutation rates. A forward algorithm inspired by Hidden-Markov-Model (HMM) literature is used to compute exact sample allele frequency spectra for three demographic scenarios: single changes in (effective) population size, boom-bust dynamics, and stochastic fluctuations in (effective) population size. An approach for fully agnostic demographic inference from these sample allele spectra is explored, and sufficient statistics for stepwise changes in population size are found. Further, convergence behaviours of the polymorphic sample spectra for population size changes on different time scales are examined and discussed within the context of inference of the effective population size. Joint visual assessment of the sample spectra and the temporal coefficients of the spectral decomposition of the forward diffusion process is found to be important in determining departure from equilibrium. Stochastic changes in (effective) population size are shown to shape sample spectra particularly strongly.

The nearly neutral theory is a common framework to describe natural selection at the molecular level. This theory emphasizes the importance of slightly deleterious mutations by recognizing their ability to segregate and eventually get fixed due to genetic drift in spite of the presence of purifying selection. As genetic drift is stronger in smaller than in larger populations, a correlation between population size and molecular measures of natural selection is expected within the nearly neutral theory. However, this hypothesis was originally formulated under equilibrium conditions. As most natural populations are not in equilibrium, testing the relationship empirically may lead to confounded outcomes. Demographic nonequilibria, for instance following a change in population size, are common scenarios that are expected to push the selection–drift relationship off equilibrium. By explicitly modeling the effects of a change in population size on allele frequency trajectories in the Poisson random field framework, we obtain analytical solutions of the nonstationary allele frequency spectrum. This enables us to derive exact results of measures of natural selection and effective population size in a demographic nonequilibrium. The study of their time-dependent relationship reveals a substantial deviation from the equilibrium selection–drift balance after a change in population size. Moreover, we show that the deviation is sensitive to the combination of different measures. These results therefore constitute relevant tools for empirical studies to choose suitable measures for investigating the selection–drift relationship in natural populations. Additionally, our new modeling approach extends existing population genetics theory and can serve as foundation for methodological developments.