Abstract
AbstractCurrent understanding of volcanic effects on El Niño–Southern Oscillation in terms of eruption type and initial ocean condition (IOC) remains elusive. We use last‐millennium proxy reconstructions to show how volcanic impacts depend on eruption type and IOC. When the IOC is not a strong El Niño, it is likely that an El Niño will mature in the second winter following 79% (p < 0.01) of Northern Hemispheric eruptions and in the first winter following 81% (p < 0.01) of tropical and 69% of Southern Hemispheric eruptions. For a strong El Niño‐IOC, no significant El Niño will occur in the first winter after any type of eruption. The eruptions need to be large enough to cause these diverse effects. Our last‐millennium simulation confirms the IOC effect, except that a La Niña occurs in the first winter following most tropical eruptions due to overestimated volcanic cooling in the model.
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