How do states die: lessons for Israel

Abstract

Israel is one of the only countries whose continued existence is called into question. The history of state death and particularly the record of state death since the end of the Cold War provide insights into the kinds of threats that are most likely to bring about the demise of countries in the twenty-first century, including Israel. This record suggests that armed conquest is no longer a principal danger to countries. Instead, state death is more likely to arise by a peaceful decision to end the state. The reasons for this decision vary case by case, but changes in the policy of a great power, ethnic strife, and a growing belief in the illegitimacy of the country’s right to exist have all played key roles in recent state deaths. Israel struggles with each of these issues, making the lessons of state death especially relevant for its future. By learning from the experience of state deaths, Israel can best assess its own vulnerabilities and determine what it needs to do to maximize its prospects for survival.