Abstract

Abstract Although it is often true that the association between two variables may be due to some unobserved third variable, the plausiblity of such arguments needs careful examination. In 1987, a Canadian court accepted an explanation offered by the National Revenue Service of Canada that, in a test for promotion, lower pass rates among women than among men were explained by differences in rates of college attendance, a variable that was not directly observed by the court. We show that this explanation is not merely implausible. It is impossible. We conclude with a brief discussion of the role of a statistician in an argument involving an unobserved variable.

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