How a 5% GDP military investment could impact European Union biodiversity

This paper proposes a novel fiscal news shock transmission channel from the US to Canada. The US and Canada have a long history of strong political and economic ties. This high degree of economic and political interdependence between Canada and the US makes the Canadian economy sensitive to policy changes in the US. We demonstrate that a fiscal news shock originating from a significant increase in US defense spending can directly transmit to Canada through enhanced defense spending in Canada. We construct a transmission model containing the defense spending news variable to assess the transmission of a fiscal news shock through this novel channel. Our findings suggest that news about increased US defense spending induces Canadian defense spending to rise. Consequently, this increased defense spending has a positive impact on the Canadian GDP. The estimated international fiscal multiplier for Canada is 0.11. We coin a novel fiscal multiplier labeled as the international defense multiplier, which quantifies the response of defense spending of a country due to a change in defense spending in another country.

The aim of the article is to investigate the peculiarities of financing NATO's armed forces. The following methods were used in the study process: comparative analysis method, correlation analysis, content analysis. The current state of defense financing in the world and in NATO countries has been clarified. Sources of funding for civilian and military budgets and NATO security investment programs are highlighted. The civilian budget covers staff costs, operational costs, capital expenditures and expenses for the International Secretariat's programs at NATO Headquarters. The military budget covers the costs of operating and maintaining the structure of NATO military management bodies. The procedure for the payment of direct and indirect contributions to NATO content by the Allies is disclosed. The tasks of the bodies responsible for financial control over the formation and use of NATO finances are described: the North Atlantic Council, the Resource Policy and Planning Council, the Budget Committee, the Investment Committee, the NATO Independent International Audit Board. Shares of financing of civilian and military budgets, as well as NATO programs by NATO member countries, the ratio of defense expenditures to GDP in NATO countries, the share of capital expenditures in the structure of defense expenditures of NATO countries are analyzed. The volumes and structure of defense financing expenditures in Ukraine are compared with NATO countries. It is revealed that during 2014-2018 Ukraine significantly increased the amount of defense financing, at the same time the share of capital expenditures in the structure of defense spending in Ukraine remains insignificant. It is proposed to increase the share of expenditures on military investments and innovations, purchase of armaments and military equipment, construction of military facilities and, at the same time, limit the share of current expenditures on the maintenance of the armed forces.

This study seeks to answer the following research question: How do defense spending and conflict impact economic growth in Europe, and what role does NATO membership play in shaping these dynamics? Using a panel dataset of 40 European countries from 1999 to 2023, the analysis investigates a change in security dynamics in Europe post-2014, determinants of military expenditure, whether NATO’s influence is more pronounced for countries closer to Russia, and how military expenditure and conflict impact economic performance. Employing panel econometric techniques, the analysis reveals that while military expenditure is not directly correlated with GDP per capita growth, conflict exerts a profoundly negative effect, with battle-related deaths significantly reducing economic performance. NATO membership is associated with increased defense spending, where geographical distance to Russia implies weakening of NATO countries’ military budgets. For NATO members, higher US military expenditure correlates with reduced European spending, highlighting reliance on American security provisions. The findings underscore the complex dynamics between defense allocations, alliance structures, and economic conditions, emphasizing the need for balanced policy approaches that address security imperatives without compromising long-term economic growth.

This thesis includes three essays on news shocks and fiscal multipliers. In the first chapter, I demonstrate that a fiscal news shock originated from an increased defence spending in the U.S. can directly transmit to Canada in the form of an induced defence spending. This paper proposes a new channel of fiscal news shock transmission from the US to Canada labelled as induced spending channel. My transmission model shows that a US defence spending news shock has a positive impact on Canadian GDP. I coin a novel multiplier labelled as international defence multiplier which can estimate the magnitude of the induced defence spending change of a country in response to the defence spending change of another country. In the second chapter, I explore whether the transfer payments to households boost private consumption spending across provinces in Canada. I propose Universal Child Care Benefit payments across provinces in Canada as an instrument for transfer payments. Universal Child Care Benefit is a formula-based transfer where the total allocation for a province depends on the total number of eligible children in that province. Therefore, Universal Child Care Benefit payments can explain exogenous variation in transfer payments as these payments vary across provinces due to the differences in demographic characteristics rather than their economic conditions. Using the Two Stage Least Square estimation method for the period 2006-2015, this paper finds the estimated local transfer multiplier of consumption in Canada to be 0.47. The third chapter assesses the role of commodity terms of trade news shocks in causing aggregate fluctuations in Canada. Movements in commodity terms of trade due to sharp price movements can lead to aggregate fluctuations in commodity exporting countries such as Canada. I demonstrate that it is important to consider the role of commodity terms of trade news shocks to explain the fluctuations in aggregate variables. This paper identifies a combination of surprise and news shocks for Canada. My findings suggest that commodity terms of trade shocks can explain substantial variation in aggregate fluctuations in Canada.

Previous studies show that conservation actions have prevented extinctions, recovered populations, and reduced declining trends in global biodiversity. However, all studies to date have substantially underestimated the difference conservation action makes because they failed to account fully for what would have happened in the absence thereof. We undertook a scenario-based thought experiment to better quantify the effect conservation actions have had on the extinction risk of the world's 235 recognized ungulate species. We did so by comparing species' observed conservation status in 2008 with their estimated status under counterfactual scenarios in which conservation efforts ceased in 1996. We estimated that without conservation at least 148 species would have deteriorated by one International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List category, including 6 species that now would be listed as extinct or extinct in the wild. The overall decline in the conservation status of ungulates would have been nearly 8 times worse than observed. This trend would have been greater still if not for conservation on private lands. While some species have benefited from highly targeted interventions, such as reintroduction, most benefited collaterally from conservation such as habitat protection. We found that the difference conservation action makes to the conservation status of the world's ungulate species is likely to be higher than previously estimated. Increased, and sustained, investment could help achieve further improvements.

Richard Whitman and Stefan Wolff, eds The European Union as a global conflict manager London: Routledge, 2012. 254pp, $39.95 (paper) ISBN 978-0-415-52872-6In recent years, European Union (EU), as an established regional institution, has taken steps to become a global actor in conflict management. EU foreign policy was first outlined in European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP). After Treaty of Lisbon was adopted in 2007, policy was renamed Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) and developed a new focus on conflict prevention and management. The depth and effectiveness of this policy has become a topic of heated debate in international relations.The European Union as a Global Conflict Manager, edited by Richard Whitman and Stefan Wolff, contributes to debate on European foreign policy, notably conflict management, and provides an analytical framework to evaluate role to which EU now aspires. The book, consisting of 14 chapters, offers comprehensive analysis of European common foreign, security, and defence policy, and EU's capacity to manage conflicts in its immediate neighbourhood and globally. Empirical chapters provide thorough discussions of EU's mediation and peacebuilding efforts in Cyprus, sub-Saharan Africa, Israel-Palestine, Georgia, Afghanistan, Moldova, Bosnia and Elerzegovina, and Macedonia.The book also offers some thoughtful recommendations for EU policymakers. The institutional architecture introduced by Lisbon Treaty has enabled EU to develop an effective global conflict management strategy by bringing together instruments of EU's external action and by integrating its member states. The focus on global security management also fosters new cooperative avenues between EU and other regional actors such as Russia, Turkey, China, India, Brazil, and South Africa. Yet post-Lisbon experience shows that such an approach poses a major challenge to EU. The 28 operations conducted by EU since 2002 have not been framed under a common policy. Another challenge is limited scope of EU military engagements in light of cuts in military spending within member states.The book's introduction sets tone by correctly pointing out that existing theories on EU as a conflict manager fail to account for its successes and failures in specific interventions. The first part of book outlines conceptual perspectives on EU and its institutional nature as a global conflict manager. For instance, it discusses distinction between Europe as civilian power and Europe as military power.In second part, contributors explore seven cases of EU intervention. For example, Gorm Rye Olsen observes that three military missions launched by EU in Democratic Republic of Congo and Darfur reveal EU's capacity and political will to engage in conflict prevention and management in Africa. This policy focus, he notes, is strongly influenced by shared interests of Europe's former colonial powers-especially France and UK. In other cases, EU's room for manoeuvre is much more circumscribed. The EU's policy toward IsraeliPalestinian conflict is a case in point. Asaf Siniver argues that the EU displayed once more inherent inconsistencies between its rhetoric and actions (86). …

Landscape modification, especially those human-dominated changes, has been widely considered as one of the key drivers inducing the degradation of environment and ecosystem. The consequent habitat loss and fragmentation, which are closely related to ecological process, have attracted much scholarly attention. However, very few studies have systematically examined their causes and consequences at the landscape level. Integrating human activities into consideration in a holistic way remains poorly understood in particular. This thesis reports a systematic study of habitat loss and fragmentation under urbanization. This research distinguishes itself from previous works in its investigation of the spatio-temporal dynamics of causes and consequences of habitat loss and fragmentation, and its endeavor to disentangle habitat fragmentation from simple habitat loss in terms of their processes and effects. The Shenzhen River cross-border watershed, shared by Hong Kong Special Administrative Region and Shenzhen, is used as a case to illustrate how these ideas can work in practice. The study period spans from 1988 to 2008.The main contents of the study include analysis of the processes and causes of habitat loss and fragmentation, and dynamic consequences on water quality and ecosystem services for biodiversity conservation at spatial and temporal scales. Various methods are employed, mainly including conventional and newly developed landscape metrics (such as the Urbanization Isolation Effect (UIE) and Habitat Isolation Degree (HID)), a spatial statistical approach based on the Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) model, spatio-temporal analyses and cross-border comparison. Major findings of the research are highlighted as follows. First, habitat loss and fragmentation show great spatial heterogeneity as well as temporal variation due to extensive and rapid urban sprawl in the study area. Second, by adopting the GWR model, it is found that human-related factors have played a significant role in determining not only the “amount” but also the “location” of habitat loss. Third, by using two new landscape metrics, namely the UIE and HID, both the extent (urban sprawl) and intensity (population density) of urbanization are suggested to have significant influences in habitat isolation. Fourth, water quality in the watershed is recognized to be closely correlated with habitat loss and fragmentation, and the correlations show major discrepancies between the Hong Kong and the Shenzhen sides. Moreover, by proposing a compound indicator (NP/MPS) for measuring habitat fragmentation (independent of simple habitat loss), it is found that habitat loss has exerted a bigger influence on water quality degradation than habitat fragmentation. Fifth, by integrating habitat connectivity into the evaluation of ecosystem services for biodiversity conservation, both the habitat size and connectivity are recognized to be important in explaining the degradation of ecosystem services value. Habitat size has played a dominant role in the overall change of ecosystem services value, whereas the role of connectivity (fragmentation) is more critical when the “stepping stones” sites are lost. The study provides a new framework to examine the habitat loss and fragmentation under urbanization at the landscape level. The efforts show great effectiveness in providing sound and useful information for future landscape planning, biodiversity conservation and watershed management.

After more than sixty years of peace, in 2022 Europe has faced a watershed moment in its security, which is leading to higher and more integrated defence spending in the European Union (EU). This article uses new sources of data to illustrate the evolution of defence spending in the EU and its composition. It also looks at the articulation of responsibilities for defence spending in a multi-level governance system, such as the EU. The institutional evolution of defence policy in the EU tries to build on a progressive convergence of foreign policy objectives and points towards some concentration of defence spending at the supra-national level. The key question for the future is to what extent this convergence will hold and to what extent it will be reflected in new provisions for defence in the common budget.

Both the increasing defense spending and the widening divergence between rich and poor countries are of great concerns. This paper attempts to explain the two concepts in a unify theory framework. In the view of conflict economics, a nation’s defense spending can be seen as the fighting commitment of distributive effort in the global economy while other is the productive effort. The development of global economy needs the productive efforts from almost every nation, and the distribution of the aggregate output is determined in large degree by the fighting commitment of each nation. The numerical simulation of the model gives a reasonable explanation of the patterns of the divergence/convergence of prosperity-poverty gap between nations, the fact which is evidenced by many empirical analyses. (1) Given the initial wealth ratio between nations fixed, there is a critical value of fighting decisiveness, when the actual value is larger than the critical value, it is more likely to result in Matthew effect; otherwise the gap would gradually be shortened. (2) Given the fighting decisiveness fixed, there is a critical value of initial wealth ratio, when the actual value is larger than the critical value, it is more likely to result in Matthew effect; otherwise, the gap would gradually be shortened. The study gives a new perspective to explain and handle the increasingly defense spending and the prosperity-poverty gap between nations.

Protected areas have long been recognized as vital tools in preserving biodiversity and safeguarding endangered species. In the case of the majestic markhor, a species of wild goat found in the mountainous regions of Pakistan and neighboring countries, protected areas play a crucial role in ensuring the survival and recovery of their populations. These designated regions provide a sanctuary where markhors can thrive, free from human disturbances and threats. Understanding and strengthening the role of protected areas is essential for securing the future of markhor populations. Protected areas offer numerous benefits for markhor conservation. Firstly, these areas provide critical habitats that meet the specific needs of markhors, including suitable vegetation, adequate food sources, and safe breeding grounds. By designating protected areas, we can create an environment where markhors can engage in natural behaviors and maintain healthy population dynamics.
 Secondly, protected areas act as a shield against human activities that pose a threat to markhors, such as habitat destruction, illegal hunting, and human-wildlife conflicts. Strict regulations and enforcement within these areas deter poaching and ensure the security of markhor populations. By mitigating these anthropogenic pressures, protected areas offer a refuge for markhors to flourish and recover their numbers. Furthermore, protected areas provide opportunities for scientific research, monitoring, and conservation initiatives. Through ongoing studies, researchers can gain valuable insights into markhor behavior, population dynamics, and habitat requirements. This knowledge informs evidence-based conservation strategies, guiding efforts to ensure the long-term survival of markhors and their ecosystems.
 However, it is important to recognize that protected areas alone cannot guarantee the conservation of markhor populations. Effective management plans, community engagement, and collaboration between government agencies, local communities, and conservation organizations are crucial. Engaging local communities in conservation efforts can foster a sense of ownership, encourage sustainable practices, and mitigate conflicts between humans and markhors.
 Protected areas play a pivotal role in safeguarding markhor populations by providing them with secure habitats, protection from threats, and opportunities for scientific research and conservation initiatives. However, the success of markhor conservation relies on comprehensive management plans, community involvement, and collaborative efforts. By recognizing the significance of protected areas and strengthening their management, we can ensure the preservation of this magnificent species for generations to come. The markhor's survival is not only a testament to the effectiveness of protected areas but also a symbol of our commitment to protecting the world's biodiversity and natural heritage.

Why Noncompliance traces the history of noncompliance within the European Union (EU), focusing on which states continuously do or do not follow EU Law, why, and how that affects the governance in the EU and beyond. In exploring the EU's long and varied history of noncompliance, Tanja A. Börzel takes a close look at the diverse groups of noncompliant states throughout the EU's existence. Why do states that are vocally critical of the EU have a better record of compliance than those that support the EU? Why has noncompliance been declining since the 1990s, even though the EU was adding member-states and numerous laws? Börzel debunks conventional wisdoms in EU compliance research, showing that noncompliance in the EU is not caused by the new Central and Eastern European member states, nor by the Eurosceptic member states. So why do these states take the brunt of Europe's misplaced ire? Why Noncompliance introduces politicization as an explanatory factor that has been long overlooked in the literature and scholarship surrounding the European Union. Börzel argues that political controversy combined with voting power and administrative capacity, explains why noncompliance with EU law has been declining since the completion of the Single Market, cannot be blamed on the EU's Central and Easter European member states, and is concentrated in areas where EU seeks to protect citizen rights.

Objective: The first wave of the coronavirus SARS-COV-2 pandemic has revealed a fragmented governance within the European Union (EU) to tackle public health emergencies. This qualitative study aims: 1) to understand the current EU position within the field of public health emergencies taking the case of the COVID-19 as an example by comparing and contrasting experiences from EU institutions and experts from various EU Member States at the beginning of the pandemic; and, 2) to identify and to formulate future EU pandemic strategies and actions based on experts' opinions.Methods: Eighteen semi-structured interviews were conducted with public health experts from various European Member States and European Commission officials from May 2020 until August 2020. The transcripts were analyzed by Thematic Content Analysis (TCA), mainly a manifest content analysis.Results: This study demonstrated that the limited EU mandate in health hinders proper actions to prevent and tackle infectious disease outbreaks, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. The results showed that this limitation significantly impacted the ECDC, as the Member States' competence did not allow the agency to have more capacity. The European Commission has fulfilled its role of coordinating and supporting the Member States by facilitating networks and information exchange. However, EU intra- and inter-communication need further improvement. Although diverse EU instruments and mechanisms were found valid, their implementation needed to be faster and more efficient. The results pointed out that underlying political challenges in EU decision-making regarding health emergencies hinder the aligned response. It was stated that the Member States were not prepared, and due to the restriction of their mandate, EU institutions could not enforce binding guidelines. Additionally, the study explored future EU pandemic strategies and actions. Both, EU institutions and national experts suggested similar and clear recommendations regarding the ECDC, the investment, and future harmonized preparedness tools.Conclusion: The complex politics of public health at the EU level have led to the fragmentation of its governance for effective pandemic responses. This ongoing pandemic has shed light on the fragility of the political and structural systems in Europe in public health emergencies. Health should be of high importance in the political agenda, and robust health reforms at the local, regional, national, and EU levels are highly recommended.

The EU Response to COVID-19: From Reactive Policies to Strategic Decision-Making.

Biodiversity Conservation Targets: How to Allocate Resources

Using tests of a single equation model and cointegration techniques, this paper finds no evidence of a long run trade‐off, and some evidence of a short‐run trade‐off, between military spending and investment in post‐World War II United States data. The short‐run trade‐off is confined to the 1949–1971 period, and may be the result of the sharp expansion and contraction of military outlays in connection with the Korean and Vietnam Wars. In addition, cointegration techniques are used to identify a possible long‐run trade‐off between military spending and consumption.