Housing prices during the COVID-19 pandemic: insights from Sweden

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic triggered a major global economic recession, to which policymakers around the world responded with massive fiscal and monetary support. While housing prices generally fall during economic downturns, they have risen during the pandemic in all OECD countries. A number of factors may have contributed, including expansionary monetary policy, the lifting of some macro-prudential constraints and a shift in housing preferences. This paper uses monthly data to examine the behaviour of real house and flat prices during the pandemic in Sweden, at the national level and in the three biggest cities. While a model containing usual determinants of housing prices tracked price developments well before the pandemic, it underestimates house prices and generally overestimates flat prices in the pandemic period. This suggests a preference shift from flats towards houses, which is consistent with findings from the recent literature on other countries. The introduction of mortgage amortisation requirements in 2016 and 2018 is estimated to have lowered housing prices. However, their lifting during the pandemic seems to have had a relatively minor effect on housing prices.