Abstract
Abstract As one of the world's top energy consumers and carbon emitters, China attracts extensive attention to its energy issues. Based on the hybrid energy input-output model, this paper forecasts the direct and indirect household energy demand growth caused by higher living standards in China with reference to a national well-off goal by 2020. Results show that such rigid energy demand will increase 1.55 billion tce by 2020 with average growth rate of 5.2% on static assumption, or 1.3 billion tce if energy conversion efficiency changes from 69% to 71.6%. If unchanged household energy consumption structure is assumed, total energy demand could decline from 5.5 billion tce to 4.9 billion tce by 2020.
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