Hoping the best, expecting the worst: Forecasting forest fire risk in Algeria using fuzzy logic and GIS

Abstract

Forest fires pose severe threats to ecosystems and communities globally, especially in vulnerable semi-arid regions like North Africa. Understanding the key factors influencing forest fire dynamics is essential for effective management and mitigation. This study aims to comprehensively analyze forest fire risk patterns in Djebel El Ouahch's massif (Algeria), focusing on integrating bioclimatic, fuel, geomorphological, and human factors through advanced fuzzy logic and geographic information system (GIS) techniques. Climatic station data, satellite imagery, and GIS were employed to map bioclimatic parameters, land cover, and geomorphological features. Fuzzy logic systems were applied to integrate these factors, assigning appropriate weights based on their significance. The resulting forest fire prediction model was defuzzified to generate predictive maps indicating varying vulnerability levels within the study area. Predictive maps delineated areas of low to high forest fire risk. Low-risk zones were characterized by sparse vegetation, while high-risk regions featured densely vegetated slopes near human settlements. The study identified critical factors influencing vulnerability, emphasizing the impact of climate, terrain, and human activities. Urgent attention was directed toward high-risk areas, necessitating tailored fire prevention measures and strategic urban planning to minimize human-induced risks. The results underscored the complex interaction of natural and anthropogenic factors in shaping forest fire susceptibility. Understanding these dynamics facilitates evidence-based policymaking, enhancing forest fire preparedness, biodiversity preservation, and community safety. Additionally, the study emphasized the need for continuous research incorporating real-time climate data and socio-economic factors to refine predictive models. This research provided valuable insights into forest fire risk patterns in Djebel El Ouahch, serving as a foundation for targeted fire management strategies. By bridging the gap between theoretical knowledge and practical application, this study contributes significantly to sustainable forest management and disaster mitigation efforts globally, emphasizing the importance of proactive measures in safeguarding vulnerable ecosystems and communities.