Historical Traumas and the Roots of Political Distrust: Political Inference from the Great Chinese Famine

Abstract

What shapes a citizen’s trust and attitudes towards the government, and what makes them persist over time? We study the causal effect of the Great Chinese Famine (1959-1962) on the level of political trust and attitudes among its survivors. Using a novel nationally representative survey, we employ a difference-in-differences framework to compare citizens who experienced the Famine versus those who did not, across regions with differential levels of drought during the Famine. Famine survivors inferred the government’s liability from personal hunger experiences, and they were more likely to blame the government for their starvation in regions with usual rainfall during the Famine. As a result, these citizens trusted the local government significantly less, and held less favorable attitudes toward the government’s performances on key issues in contemporary China. These effects on political trust and attitudes persist even half a century after the Famine, and we provide suggestive evidence on the mechanisms that foster such persistence.